Thanks to achievements of the scientific and technological revolution, especially the Fourth Industrial Revolution, unmanned aerial vehicles are increasingly being improved, allowing for both more efficient military operations and minimising casualties for operators. The practicality of recent military conflicts demonstrates that there will be a revolution in the art of using this type of aircraft in combat, with significant implications for military strategies of many countries in the near future.

Breakthroughs in loitering and autonomous target engagement capabilities

The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 between Azerbaijan and Armenia revealed itself as not just a singular historical moment but rather the beginning of a new type of warfare, with the focus on deploying large-scale unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack forces. However, the tactics of UAV warfare had been refined in the years leading up to this, starting from the time the United States utilised UAVs in counter-terrorism campaigns, to the deployment of UAVs in conflicts in Syria and Libya. Since then, the art of using UVA has been shaped with renowned UAV brands proving their capabilities on the battlefield, such as Predator and Reaper (US), Bayraktar (Turkey) and Anka-S, Orlan-10 and Orion (Russia), Shahed-136 (Iran), and others.

One of the most crucial developments in next-generation UAV technology is the increasing level of autonomy. While previous UAVs required human operators to make crucial decisions, advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) now enable the latest generation of UAVs, particularly loitering UAVs, to operate autonomously with minimal intervention from the operator. Recent military conflicts have demonstrated that increased autonomy allows UAVs to carry out complex tasks such as monitoring, reconnaissance, and even striking target with higher precision and efficiency than ever before.

Using loitering UAVs for target engagement demonstrates their effectiveness when their level of automation is enhanced. The combat capabilities of loitering UAVs lie somewhere between those of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and cruise missiles. The ability to loiter in a designated area for extended time and search for targets means that these UAVs operate on a fully autonomous principle. Loitering UAVs have been employed in recent real-life combat scenarios, serving as cruise missiles deployed from launch tubes, they are equipped with searching sensors and fitted with warheads to eliminate targets. Simultaneously, they are integrated with and provide precision strike capabilities beyond the range of artillery. Notably, they are currently produced at a lower cost than missiles, small and light enough to offer direct attack capabilities and can be equipped to small, dispersed, and covert operation units to avoid detection. The significant advantage of loitering UAVs over traditional artillery lies in their ability to achieve longer ranges, maintaining a safer distance for combat forces. Additionally, their small size and low acoustic, visual, and thermal signatures make them challenging to detect, identify, or track, even at close distances. Furthermore, the advancement of more sophisticated technologies in sensors, communication, autopilot and target acquisition allows these new types of loitering UAVs to play an effective role as a suppressing weapon against the enemy air defence system.

Azerbaijan’s successful use of loitering UAVs in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020 demonstrated their effectiveness in suppressing air defence systems and neutralising the armoured forces of Armenia. Loitering UAVs, such as the Harop and Sky Striker manufactured by Israel, were extensively employed by Azerbaijani force throughout the conflict. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, loitering UAVs like the Lancet have been consistently deployed by Moscow to destroy hundreds of valuable military targets on the front lines or behind the enemy’s lines. The operational range of the Lancet UAV extends up to 70km, guided autonomously by AI or pre-loaded target coordinates. With a loitering time of 40 minutes, a warhead of 03kg, and an attack speed reaching 330km/h, it proves highly effective in combat situations. In the Libyan Civil War, Poland’s Warmate loitering UAVs have been utilised. In Yemen, the Houthi rebel group deployed Iran’s HESA Qasef-1 loitering UAVs. All the mentioned UAVs have demonstrated their effectiveness in real combat scenarios.

The increasing effectiveness of using drone swarms in combat

Another notable trend in modern UAV warfare is the development of swarm tactics. This term refers to the deployment of multiple UAVs that can communicate and coordinate closely with each other to execute missions more efficiently. This approach allows for greater flexibility and adaptability on the battlefield, as swarms can quickly adjust to changing conditions and respond to threats in real-time. Drone swarms are deployed to perform a range of tasks: reconnaissance, real-time transmission of operation-tactical information to command centres, ground target destruction, guiding air strikes, adjusting artillery fire and other types of firepower, as well as creating decoy targets. The use of drone swarms can overwhelm the opponent’s air defence system, as the sheer number of UAVs can make it challenging for the enemy to target and eliminate individual UAVs. The increasing combat capabilities of UAV swarms could make them a force to be reckoned with on the battlefield.

Additionally, a drone swarm can have a significant psychological impact on the enemy troops as they are capable of continuously conduct harassing activities both day and night. The use of a large number of UAVs on the battlefield will lead to substantial tactical changes, particularly because the extensive presence of these “machines” allows the operators to monitor much larger areas in real-time at a low cost. This enables artillery to quickly respond in the event of an intrusion, and forces armoured vehicles to camouflage and conceal themselves more carefully, as even the slightest movement can be easily detected immediately.

In reality, Russia has employed the swarm tactic for their drones, including Forpost, Orlan-10, and Eleron-3. These UAVs can conduct reconnaissance at various altitudes and attack ground targets. They are effectively integrated with artillery and especially missile launchers. Any UAV can provide data to artillery batteries. A drone swarm can observe the battlefield more effectively and accurately thus they can guide attacks to any point, switching between short or long-range weapons as necessary. Recent armed conflicts and regional wars further affirm that UAVs have been used in unprecedented numbers, deployed with high frequency, leading to significant losses for this type of weapon, with participating sides potentially losing up to 10 thousand UAVs per month. Figures from reports by the Royal United Services Institute estimate that on average, there are 25 to 50 UAVs operating simultaneously within a 10 km range in a conflict zone. Electronic countermeasures, such as signal jamming and control hijacking, cause substantial losses to UAVs, but due to their low cost and significant tactical advantages, the strategic use of UAVs on the battlefield remains valuable, at least economically.

The weaponisation of commercial UAVs for use in combat

Due to their low cost and demonstrated effectiveness in large numbers, commercial UAVs are being weaponised and deployed by many countries. Both Russia and Ukraine have employed weaponised commercial UAVs, to serve roles such as carrying anti-tank grenades and launching small-sized bombs to inflict damage on enemy personnel.

However, the weaponsation of commercial UAVs is not a new issue. As early as 2013, when commercial UAVs began mass produced to meet recreational demands, the price of a commercial UAV was only around 2,000 USD. With upgrades, they can be fully capable of conducting reconnaissance, patrolling within a radius of over 1 km, carrying bombs, small-size munitions, and equipping units in defensive or offensive formations. Moreover, the integration of AI and machine learning algorithms into commercial UAV technology has revolutionised their use in warfare. Consequently, the weaponisation of commercial UAVs has quickly become familiar with armed groups. Notably, various groups and guerrilla forces in the Middle East have enhanced and integrated weapons onto commercial UAVs for combat operations. This transformation has turned recreational UAVs into weapon has become widespread. This type of vehicle was also used by Hamas forces to neutralise security towers separating the Gaza Strip from the rest of Israel in the 7 October Attack in 2023.

UAVs of this kind are challenging to detect and neutralise. In Iraq, weaponised commercial UAVs routinely fly directly above US military bases. Eliminating them with light weapons is not an easy task. Although they can be detected on radar screens and targeted with missiles, the main obstacle is the cost involved. According to military experts, firing a missile to destroy high-altitude UAVs like the Predator or Reaper, with a unit cost of 25 million USD, would be effective. However, if missiles are used to shoot down commercial UAVs costing a few thousand USD, or even less, it will be very expensive. This challenge is even more pronounced when the threat comes from a large number of small quadcopter UAVs, each priced at a hundred USD. In reality, to quickly incorporate inexpensive UAVs into combat, Ukraine has implemented the “UAV Army” programme. They manufactured 1,500 Shrike FPV UAVs at a cost of a few hundred USD each and deployed them in combat on the Eastern front in October 2023. The Shrike FPV UAVs are easy to use and capable of conducting precision strikes. On the Russian side, there is also increased use of cheap commercial UAVs, such as flycams, fitted with explosives or shaped-charge warheads to attack vulnerable points on Ukraine’s main battle tanks.

Thus, UAVs have proven their lethality and transformed combat in modern conflicts. The new attack tactics using UAVs have demonstrated their effectiveness through conflicts in Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The proliferation of UAV technology has also raised concerns about the potential for an arms race, as more and more countries develop and deploy advanced UAVs. This could lead to increased tension and the risk of conflict.

Senior Colonel DANG DONG TIEN, General Department of Technology