On the basis of all-round analysis and assessment of the situation and the requirements of the cause of national construction and defence, the Political Report of the 12th Congress of the Party pointed out: “promoting practical review, theory study to provide scientific and theoretical grounds for the plan and development of the Party’s guidelines” in all fields, not to leave the country strategically unforeseen. The above viewpoint has shown our Party’s consistent line on strategic forecasting in the new situation, including that of defence field.
The new Party’s viewpoint has mentioned strategic forecasting in a deeper and more comprehensive manner with supplements and developments as compared to previous stages. While in the previous political reports of the Party, strategic forecasting was just seen in external affairs angle, at the 12th National Congress, our Party pointed out clearly the aims, requirements and methods of the work in all fields in the new situation. Accordingly, in the field of defence, the aim of strategic forecasting is to give out scientific and theoretical grounds for planning defence lines and policies given the possible threats and challenges; requirements set out for the work are comprehensive, objective, scientific, focal, strategic and clearly – targeted, not to leave the country strategically passive and unforeseen; the work should be approached from reviewing the reality of Homeland protection over the past years to studying theories on models of possible threats and risks of conflict and war in the future and theories on the art of people’s war for Homeland protection in the new conditions in order to have exact and opportune anticipations. Those are the core contents of the Party’s viewpoint on the matter that we need to grasp and adhere to when applying to solve the problems posed in reality of Homeland protection. Particularly, given the context that the world and region have witnessed fast, complicated and unpredictable changes; globalization and international integration are taking place more deeply and widely; opportunities and cooperation are intertwined with risks and challenges, grasping and thoroughly implementing strategic forecasting in defence field are becoming more important both theoretically and practically.
The country’s revolutionary history, particularly the 30 years of renewal, has shown that our Party and State have attached special importance to defence strategic forecasting for the firm protection of Homeland in any situations. Accordingly, we have always had opportune and exact anticipation of the world and regional evolutions which have impact on our defence and security; of the world and regional security architecture; of adversaries and partners of Vietnam’s defence; of defence situations and models of possible conflict and war, etc. Domestically, we have also given out important anticipations with high accuracy, such as: risks of the country; the internal “self-evolution”, “self-transformation”; plots and schemes of ‘Peaceful evolution” strategy of hostile forces in strategic regions. Particularly, we have basically anticipated accurately the complicated situation on the East Sea; activities inciting riot and chaos to advise and propose to the Party and State defence lines and strategies together with wise and opportune plans for settlement, contributing to firmly protecting national independence, sovereign, unity and integrity and the peaceful, stable environment for the country development.
Besides the achievements gained, there still remain some limitations on the awareness of some industries, cadres of the work; some inadequacies in the leadership, direction, management and operation; some insufficiencies in the ability of forecasting and coordination among think tanks, etc. These not only reduce the effectiveness of planning and implementing the Party and State’s guidelines and policies but also increase the threats to the country’s defence and security. For this reason, enhancing the quality of strategic forecasting, particularly in defence field, must be of permanent concern of the Party, the whole people and troops in order to have practical solutions.
First, continue to intensify the Party’s leadership and direction, the efficacy of the State’s management and operation, directly the Central Military Party Committee and the Ministry of National Defence over the work. For each of the matters, it is necessary to define clearly the aims, missions, contents, scopes of study and necessary results, etc., on which short term and long term program for study are built. In the current situation, to enhance the quality of strategic forecasting, party committees and leaders of the think tanks should focus on raising the awareness, renewing thinking for their staff, particularly renewing contents, methods and the operations of studying. In addition, strengthen leadership over centralized study, checking, urging and praising; have favourable mechanisms and policies to encourage and promote the ability of the staffs directly involving in the work.
Second, restructure the system of defence institutes for strategic studies in the orientation of concentrated, specialised with appropriate scale suitable to the features and mission requirements of each one. This matter also needs considering. In the coming time, it is necessary to review the organization, staff, function, mission and area of operation of each institute to avoid overlap and improve the independence, self-resilience and the coordinating ability in strategic studies.
Third, train and develop human resource for strategic studies with equivalent capability, quality and knowledge meeting the requirements of the mission. Focus on enhancing the ability for strategic study and planning; the ability to respond quickly to and settle domestic, regional and world situations; the ability to analyse, assess, and give out sharp conclusion of strategic level with high accuracy; the willingness to anticipate breakthrough, difficult and complicated matters in the field of defence and security, etc.
Fourth, intensify coordination between think tanks of the Ministry of National Defence and those of other ministries to ensure the comprehensiveness, scientific base and high reliability for the anticipations. Accordingly, the coordination must adhere to the stipulated mechanisms and involve a number of agencies with focus being the think tanks of the Ministry of National Defence, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Investment and Planning, the Ministry of Science and Technology, etc. Contents for coordination must be clearly stated in all stages, for example, defining topic for study, the main connotation of the study topic, information sharing, profession consultation, conference, the implementation of each content, the use and application of study results, etc.
Strategic study in defence field is of paramount importance and specialization. Defence strategic matters may set out orientations and requirements that other industries must follow. Therefore, in the coordination during strategic studies, specialized agencies of the Ministry of National Defence should be the host, coordinator in all stages to make sure that studies are reliable, comprehensive, objective and scientific, contributing to building and planning appropriate defence guidelines and policies for firmly protecting the Homeland in the new situation.
Lieutenant General, Assoc Prof., Dr. Tran Thai Binh