In recent years, the cohesion of the European Union (EU) has been battered by many problems, including the sovereign debt crisis, waves of immigration, populism, extreme nationalism, etc., which lead to the departure of the United Kingdom (UK). Alarmingly, the Covid-19 pandemic has already raised doubts over the existence of the 27 remaining members in the “common home.”
A decade of crises
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, EU hastily admitted former Warsaw Pact countries into its organization with a view to carrying out the enlargement policy in Eastern Europe and expanding borders towards Russia. The most significant milestone of this project was the admission of 10 Eastern European states in 2004, increasing EU member countries from 15 to 25. This was considered a major stride of EU in growing its reputation. However, many problems have arisen since then, which shook the foundation of the “common home” established over 5 decades ago.
The concept of a multi-speed EU has been mentioned frequently. Many politicians even claim that current EU is like a machine comprised of many components which behave differently in the face of major situations, e.g. the debt crisis in 2009. The crisis began in Greece then spread to other weak economies in the eurozone such as Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain. Although EU member states use a single currency, each of them has their own financial management policies. Consequently, countries with overspending policies like Greece had a domino effect on the whole system.
Next, the immigrant crisis which began since 2011 when millions of people from Africa and the Middle East reached Europe by sea or land ignited internal discord about burden sharing with front line member states such as Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, and France. After many debates, although EU members agreed about a mechanism for allocating refugees around the EU, some of them (Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary) still resolutely reject this mechanism.
According to experts, the most severe blow to EU pride was the UK’s referendum on its membership of the European Union in 2016. The majority of UK population voted for withdrawal from the EU (also known as Brexit). The UK officially left the EU after 47 years of European membership on 31 January 2020. This is not only a great loss to prestige of the EU, but also raises a big question about its direction, integrity, and future. Many politicians believe that the EU will be plunged into a serious crisis over linkage and integration after Brexit.
Covid-19 deepens the rift
Shortly after Brexit, the “old continent” continued to face a new crisis – the Covid-19. In fact, the Covid-19 pandemic had broken out in European member countries since February 2020. Italy had been the first “victim” then the disease quickly spread across the continent. The pandemic not only causes great loss of life, but also severely affects European economy. Given its rapid spread, the Covid-19 has ruined EU’s prospects for growth and poses grievous economic challenges to EU member countries. According to analysts, the economic shock triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic is much more dreadful than the 2008 financial crisis. Social distancing has hindered activities, inflicting tremendous loss to European economies in terms of trade, tourism, transport, public catering, and so on. In the coming time, fewer European people will be employed and make investment. They will also reduce their spending.
Additionally, the Covid-19 has exposed the increasingly deep rift between EU member countries in preventing and responding to the disease as well as in overcoming its aftermath. Obviously, since the disease outbreak, the EU has struggled to reach a deal on coronavirus recovery package, sharing of medical devices, and protection of essential supplies after its member countries tightened or closed the borders in an effort to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus. In fact, 27 member states are responding to the common threat by their own plans. Notably, regardless of calls for coordination, member countries have failed to reach consensus on medical measures and implementation schedule according to development of the disease. For instance, while France and Germany decided to ban on exports of protective gear to curb the disease outbreak in Italy, and Poland, Czech, and Hungary proactively imposed tight blockades to put the spread of this fatal virus under control, Holland and Sweden pursued herd immunity. Unilateral decisions of each member state have turned the medical crisis into freedom of movement and common market - the two key principles that underpin the European Community. Controversies about border reopening have also undermined the image of a unified EU.
In general, different approaches and political situations have led to purely national decisions, which cannot meet the demands of response at the global and continental scales. Moreover, EU member countries become increasingly skeptical over EU budget contributions and receipts. Divisions arose when European leaders debated the Covid-19 recovery fund and budget. While some members (Italy, Spain, and France) supported eurozone countries in issuing collective European bonds called “corona bonds” to raise funds for addressing the impacts of Covid-19, the Northern European countries (Germany, Holland, Finland, and Austria) opposed the idea due to fear of debt mutualisation. They were afraid that their taxpayers are bled for the overspending of countries in Southern Europe.
Clearly, the Covid-19 pandemic has revealed not only EU’s flaws in response to epidemics, but also the fact that it is every man for himself when its member countries face difficulties and challenges. This proves that settlement of national problems takes priority over common challenges of the organisation.
What future for the EU?
There have been hot debates about an alliance with two blocs – Southern countries including Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece, and Northern countries including Austria, Holland, and Germany since its foundation. The advocates of this solution argue that the differences between these two regions in terms of lifestyle, social awareness, and psychology of people cannot be settled. The possibility of division first appeared in the Greek debt crisis in 2009. It is getting more and tenser with the outbreak of Covid-19. In other words, the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated some negative trends, which had battered the continent over the past decade. It forces EU’s governments to cope with challenges they have strived to ignore for a long time. It is the lack of instruments to make collective response to crises. Some analysts even believe that if an online referendum is conducted in Italy now, 80 percent of voters will choose to leave the European Union. Not only conservative parties but also many liberal and leftist voters are not advocates of the EU when they witness its response to the pandemic and its indifference towards the fate of the “boot-shaped country.”
Many prior public opinion polls have shown growing skepticism in other EU member countries, including Greece, Spain, France, and even Eastern European countries. When they first joined the EU, the new members looked forwards to bridging the economic gap and equal voice in debates. However, they quickly run out of patience over time because their expectations are not satisfied. When people are still haunted by aftershocks of the debt crisis, impacts of the migrant crisis and the on-going pandemic will further skepticism over the European Union.
Many politicians claim that there are three challenges to the survival of the European Union. First, reputation and people’s confidence in the alliance have been weakened. Second, the European Union is deeply divided on various matters. Third, the EU lacks a complete, suitable strategy for the future against the backdrop of fundamental changes in all dimensions in the region and the world.
The future of EU will rest on how it responds to the Covid-19 pandemic. If it cannot strengthen its linkages, improve resilience, and prepare for worse scenarios, the EU will lose its prestige among the member countries. When solidarity becomes a slogan instead of actions, the power of EU will decrease, and more countries will follow the UK.
Lam Phuong and Nguyen Duc Xien