On June 12^th, 2018, a historic summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean President Kim Jong-un took place in Singapore. The meeting successfully ended with a short joint Statement including 4 key points, which was of great, profound significance and stimulated new developments for not only the US-North Korean relations but for partners of the two countries in the region and the world.

US President Donald Trump and North Korean President Kim Jong-un at the Summit on June 12th, 2018 (Photo: AP)

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) celebrates its 70^th National Day in 2018, one year after it first announced the completion of its nuclear missile program (on November 29^th 2017) and proclaimed itself to be a “major power”. In his New Year’s speech delivered on January 1^st, 2018, President Kim Jong-un stated that North Korea would shift its strategy towards economic development to improve the people’s life and seek for a more prosperous society. This shift was the policy set out by the 7^th National Congress of the Workers’ Party of North Korea (May 2016) which was shifting from military priority to two-track policy to develop both economy and nuclear power. Diplomatically, North Korea still regards the U.S. as a direct, dangerous opponent and Japan as “traditional enemy” while remaining both “friendly” and “hostile” towards South Korea. The DPRK has been strongly criticized by the international community and punished by the UN Security Council’s 2 consecutive resolutions 2270 in January 2016 and 2321 in September 2016 as well as bilateral and unilateral sanctions from the U.S., Japan, North Korea and European Union.

As for America, since taking office, President Trump has considered North Korean nuclear program as one of the two top priorities in Northeast Asia. Alongside sanctions, America has been comprehensively pressurizing North Korea while deploying the largest military forces ever to this region. In late 2017, the US-North Korean relations became so extremely strained that US President had to announce that “if it is forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea”. However, US President suddenly accepted the invitation to meet Kim Jong-un. This could be seen as a great surprise leading to a series of new, unpredictable issues in the region.

As far as South Korea is concerned, since taking office, President Moon Jae-in has made some important adjustments in the policy towards North Korea, shifting from deterrence to “peaceful co-existence and co-prosperity, and no pursuit of unification”. Besides, Seoul has made efforts to alleviate tension and stabilize the situation on the Korean Peninsula. On January 9^th, 2018, a senior level meeting between the two Korean countries took place in Panmunjeom. The two sides reached significant agreements, one of which was that North Korea would send delegations, including athletes, supporters, music bands, and especially senior officials to the opening ceremony of the PyeongChang Olympic Winter Games in South Korea. On April 27^th, 2018, the two countries had a historic meeting in Panmunjeom and released a joint Statement with 3 major points. (1). South and North Korea will reconnect the blood relations of the people and bring forward the future of co-prosperity and unification led by Koreans. (2). South and North Korea will make joint efforts to alleviate the acute military tension and practically eliminate the danger of war on the Korean peninsula; (3). South and North Korea will actively cooperate to establish a permanent and solid peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

Moreover, it is a must to mention visits to China by Kim Jong-un, especially his visit to Dalian prior to the Summit held on June 12^th, 2018. Those visits contributed to restoring the Chinese-North Korean relations which had been in trouble since Kim Jong-un took office in December 2011.

 Some results

Despite many differences, the US-North Korean Summit took place as planned. On June 12^th, 2018, in Singapore, the two supreme leaders of the U.S. and North Korea had bilateral, official meetings, signed the joint Statement and attended the press conference. The Statement included 4 major points. (1). The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity. (2). The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. (3). Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work towards complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. (4). The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified. Those results have been basically predicted by experts; however, there have been 3 noteworthy points in this Statement as follows.

First, the first three points mentioned above exactly coincide with what the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) broadcast on June 11^th, 2018, one day before the US-North Korean Summit. It reveals that America has made considerable concessions while North Korea has achieved what they had wanted.

Second, the issue on denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula which has been the first priority of the U.S. is only the third point in the Statement. Moreover, that point was mentioned in the Panmunjeom Statement between the two Korean countries on April 27^th, 2018 without any detailed plan. North Korea even merely “pledged to advocate the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” without any immediate action plan. By doing so, North Korea has delivered a message that it will not use its “ace in the hole” unless America pledges to lift its sanctions against this country. America, in return, has not given any pledge on lifting its sanctions. This point implies that the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula must be handled by Koreans instead of major powers.

Third, North Korea and America have pledged to recover POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified. This is the most surprising and interesting point of the Statement. During the Korean War (1950-1953), according to the US Department of Defence, over 8,000 US soldiers were listed as missing. This is a critical issue of the US. After the war ended, the two sides signed a ceasefire agreement instead of a peace agreement as North Korea and America had negotiated about this issue for many times without any result. This could be the “most crucial moment” for Washington to repatriate those remains.

International opinion and issues arising from the Summit

Basically, experts all believe that the US-North Korean Summit is a historic meeting and acts as the first step of the reconciliation between America and North Korea, which also encourages the relations between North Korea and a series of countries in the region and the world, especially North Korea-South Korea, China-North Korea, and Japan-North Korea. A new process has really commenced on the Korean Peninsula; however, no one is sure of where this process will go as there remain too many unclear issues. The joint Statement has even not included any specific pledge or detailed action plan. Thus, the two sides will certainly have more meetings, even at senior level, to foster an action plan. Nevertheless, this could be seen as a historic victory of North Korea’s diplomacy when this country is shifting its priority from nuclear missile development to economic development and improvement of national status in the region and the world.

The US-North Korean Summit has brought about some issues deeply impacting on the region’s peace and stability as well as on Vietnam in many aspects.

First, what will America and North Korea do next? After the Summit, the KCNA officially announced that President Kim Jong-un had accepted Donald Trump’s invitation to visit the US. The two sides are actively making preparations for this visit which could be made when North Korea’s leader attends the UN General Assembly Meeting in New York city in September 2018. This is a visit of utmost importance to North Korea as President Kim Jong-un’s address at the UN General Assembly will be the affirmation and recognition of North Korea’s status as a major power (according to North Korea’s view). Besides, if America and North Korea could arrange a second senior-level meeting even on the sideline of the UN General Assembly Meeting or in the capital of Washington, D.C., it will consolidate North Korea’s status in the international arena as well as Kim Jong-un’s status in his country.

Second, recently, North Korea and China have enhanced their relations. Particularly, after the US-North Korean Summit, Kim Jong-un paid his third visit to China to both express his gratitude for Beijing’s support and invite Chinese President Xi Jinping to officially visit North Korea. That has caused a lot of issues to be addressed. If President Xi Jinping pays a visit to North Korea prior to Kim Jong-un’s visit to America, it will be an enormous advantage to North Korea in political and diplomatic terms. That will greatly impact on the gathering of force in the region and the implementation of sanctions against North Korea. Regional countries, particularly the ASEAN, will have to consider adjusting their policy towards North Korea in the new context.

Third, if the US and North Korea establish relations as pledged, and North Korea pursues an open door policy, which way Pyongyang will choose? Will South Korean companies withdraw capital from Vietnam and invest in North Korea? At present, it is thought that North Korea will follow Vietnam’s footstep to both carry out the open door, reform, and integration policy and maintain the political stability and the leadership of the Workers’ Party. Besides, there are many other models for North Korea to follow, such as China and Singapore.

Fourth, if North and South Korea and America all announce the end of the war and establish a solid, lasting mechanism for maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, it is possible that America will re-dispose all forces stationed in South Korea, even in Western Pacific Region. Recently, US President Donald Trump has stated that America would stop several exercises with South Korea in order to facilitate North Korea’s implementation of its pledges. As a result, the region’s strategic complexion will have unpredictable developments with both opportunities and challenges.

To conclude, the US-North Korean Summit held on June 12^th, 2018 is a historic milestone that fosters new developments in the region and includes unknowns for all parties and especially issues to North Korea, South Korea, America and relevant countries.

Dr Tran Viet Thai, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam