The victory of Donald Trump in his second presidential term is predicted to open up important changes to the US defence and security policy. How this policy is shaped, the relationship between Washington and its allies and partners, etc. have become issues of great concern to the international community.

The return of "America First" and "Peace Through Strength"

According to researchers, the "America First" policy and the philosophy of "Peace Through Strength" have been associated with the first term (2017 - 2021) of President Donald Trump, so it is not surprising that it was "revived" in his second term. In fact, before taking over the White House for the second time, President Donald Trump and his closest advisors repeatedly stated that they would continue to apply this policy to describe their foreign policy and national security goals. According to that view, the United States will be in the best position to lead the world by putting its people’s safety, prosperity and well-being first. However, some politicians believe that the “America First” and “Peace Through Strength” of President Donald Trump and his associates seem to follow “isolationism”. However, the White House owner himself and his advisors believe that rather than acting as “isolationists”, they prioritise reciprocal “transactional” relationships and the ability to leverage the country's capital to pursue “Peace Through Strength”, thereby making “America great again”.

Many experts believe that with “America First”, the Donald Trump 2.0 administration can maintain a competitive advantage in the field of defence and security through the development of a comprehensive military force and dominance in maritime, cyberspace, space, air force, etc. In addition, “America First” can also be expanded to the defence industry, including greater investment in indigenous capabilities, improving conventional technology capabilities, advanced technology (artificial intelligence (AI), cyber technology, quantum technology (QT), robotics, etc.) and promoting arms sales to countries by removing military restrictions. Meanwhile, “Peace Through Strength” will minimise the direct participation of the US military in foreign conflicts and move towards a commitment to strengthening and staying ahead of rivals and peer powers in defence and security, especially Russia and China.

According to observers, with what has been happening, in the coming time, the world may witness a stronger approach to the policy of "maximum pressure" on opponents. The Donald Trump 2.0 administration may impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods, implement export controls to prevent China from exploiting US technology for military use; and also does not rule out imposing tariffs on other countries, including US allies. Washington will also continue its policy of putting pressure on Tehran, including imposing "energy sanctions" to prevent Iran from supporting pro-Iranian militia movements. Recently, Mr. Keith Kellogg, President Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, called for the restoration of the maximum pressure campaign on Iran. According to Mr. Keith Kellogg, "these pressures must not only be dynamic, not only military power, but also economic and diplomatic"; Actions to “change Iran for the better” must be taken without delay. Observers also believe that President Donald Trump’s pursuit of “Peace Through Strength” is not aimed at “waging war” as his predecessors did, but rather at using military force to support diplomatic activities. This was demonstrated right in his first term when President Donald Trump maintained a “firm stance” against his opponents and did not create more conflicts: Russia did not go further in Ukraine after annexing Crimea in 2014; Iran did not directly attack Israel; North Korea limited its nuclear weapons testing after diplomatic moves combined with demonstrations of strength from the US.

In his second term, the 47th President of the United States is promoting his vision of “Peace Through Strength” by appointing national security and foreign policy leaders who are loyal, share his views on competing with China, and require allies to improve their defence capabilities. According to President Donald Trump, true peace cannot be achieved without the US military maintaining its strength. In his first term, President Donald Trump has improved the national defence capacity and combat capabilities of the Navy, thereby helping the US military build enough strength to protect national interests globally. Many experts predict that in the coming time, the White House owner will aim to rebuild the US military with the focus on investing in high-tech weapons and boosting procurement. This would help realise the idea of ​​working with allies on an “arsenal of democracy” for the 21st century similar to the “arsenal of democracy” that won World War II. This would be the optimal way to strengthen relations with partners: Japan, South Korea, and India in Asia and allies in Europe.

President Donald Trump in his second presidential term (Photo; Getty Images/VNA)

Relations with allies and strategic partners

Researchers believe that, like his predecessors, President Donald Trump will maintain relations with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) member countries and US allies in Asia. However, with the "America First" policy, President Donald Trump will still advocate fair cooperation and require NATO member countries and allies in Asia to contribute more to defence, thereby building a strong alliance network.

With NATO and European allies, in his first term, President Donald Trump not only sought to amend documents on the cooperative alliance relationship with the US, but also harshly criticised NATO member countries for not reaching the spending target of 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defence as stipulated in the terms of the alliance's Treaty. Many researchers believe that this tension may continue in Trump's second term.

America's strategic partners in Asia and the Indo-Pacific region, especially Japan and South Korea, are likely to be under significant pressure regarding defence spending. These two countries will be forced to spend more money on defence as well as the stationing of US troops there, as promised by Trump to the US voters during his second election campaign. In a recent interview, President Donald Trump announced that he would ask South Korea to pay about $10 billion a year to ensure the US military in this country (8 times higher than the amount that Seoul and Washington agreed). In recent years, South Korea has spent more than 2% of its GDP on defence and is considered by the US as a benchmark for its allies; Seoul also paid 90% of the cost to expand Camp Humphreys - the largest US military base abroad with a construction cost of nearly $11 billion. President Donald Trump's statement has raised concerns in Seoul that Washington will seek to renegotiate South Korea's annual payment of 1.52 trillion won (about $1.14 billion) to maintain the presence of 28,500 US troops, despite the two sides having reached a five-year agreement (2026-2030). If negotiations fail, President Donald Trump may reduce or withdraw US troops from South Korea.

In fact, over the years, the US has provided security support to its allies in Europe and Asia. However, with the “America First” policy, President Donald Trump has expressed a new vision of the US’s international role, but it also contradicts the traditional commitment and active multilateralism that Washington has maintained since World War II. After taking over the White House from President Donald Trump’s 1.0 administration, President Joe Biden and his colleagues have made efforts to restore traditional values ​​through re-commitment to allies and partners, demonstrated through the 4-party security dialogue mechanisms: US - Japan - India - Australia (QUAD), 3-party alliance groups: US - Japan - South Korea or US - UK - Australia (AUKUS) - cooperation models that are considered more targeted and effective in the field of defence and security. However, in President Donald Trump's 2.0 term, the future of these cooperation mechanisms remains a big question.

Another issue is that President Donald Trump's Asia policy in his first term was also assessed as unpredictable and sometimes harsh with allies. Therefore, in this term, President Donald Trump may not be satisfied with India - an important partner in QUAD that Washington expects to play a "counterweight" role to China, when New Delhi's defence policy is still "vague". For AUKUS, delays in the shipbuilding programme or increased defence spending of the Quad for Australia,... will also be issues that President Donald Trump will consider and adjust in his way.

Impact on the region and the world

According to researchers, President Donald Trump's second term is expected to have many differences, with far-reaching impacts not only in the field of international relations and the global economy, but also on the structure of the world order. With unilateral policies and a tendency to separate from multilateral institutions, especially in the fields of defence and security, the Donald Trump 2.0 administration may promote the development of a stronger multipolar world order; regional powers may seek to expand their influence and establish new cooperation mechanisms independent of the US. International organisations, such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organisation and NATO may face major challenges in terms of their effectiveness and role. The first victim affected by the reduction of US support for NATO is Ukraine, although this country is not its official member, but in recent times, Ukraine has been the recipient of much military and economic aid from the US in the conflict with Russia. Observers also believe that the decline in US commitment to bilateral and multilateral defence and security cooperation mechanisms could lead to the need for comprehensive reform of the global structural system.

Although things are still unclear, the decisions that President Donald Trump will make in his new term, especially in the field of defence and security, will certainly have a great impact on the regional and world security structure.

LAM PHUONG - TRUNG HIEU