The 2025 Munich Security Conference took place against a backdrop of rapid and unpredictable changes in the global political and security landscape. The conference addressed numerous topics and issues related to current global security, indicating that the world is accelerating its transition from a unipolar to a multipolar order.

A meeting between US Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at 2025 Munich Security Conference (photo: AP/VNA)

A multipolarising world

Amidst regional and global developments in 2024 and early 2025 - notably the Russia - Ukraine conflict, hostilities in the Middle East, and shifts in the US’s stance and policies following President Donald Trump’s return to office - the 2025 Munich Security Conference (held from 14 to 16 February 2025) concluded that the global political and security landscape is significantly shifting towards a multipolar world. Consequently, the era of a multipolar world raises several fundamental questions for our time, such as: which nations will serve as the “poles” in the new world order, which countries possess the potential to become “new poles”, what will the multipolar world order be like, what will the rules of the game be, and will a multipolar world be fairer, more equitable, and more stable, or more unstable and unequal compared to the unipolar world order?

The Conference Report argued that the “rules-based order”, or the US-led unipolar world order, has become a thing of the past - particularly since US President Donald Trump began his second term in office (20^th January 2025) - and the world is entering an era of a multipolar world order. According to this report, the trend towards the formation of a multipolar world order is driven by several factors: (1). Western nations lack unity and leadership, and are challenged from within by far-right and populist ideologies; (2). Friction between the US and its European allies is increasing. This was evident when US Vice President James David Vance openly criticised European countries regarding democracy, human rights, and freedom of speech, whilst accusing the “old continent” of losing its fundamental values. He even declared that the threat to Europe comes not from Russia or China, but from within the continent itself; (3). The US - the nation acting as the pole in the unipolar world order - is prioritising self-interest and exhibits tendencies towards territorial expansion; (4). China advocates the establishment of a multipolar world order and possesses the economic strength and political influence to rally forces and lure developing nations in its competition against the US; (5). Europe, having sheltered under the US “security umbrella” for over half a century, will be compelled to ensure its own security, potentially by raising defence budgets to 5% of GDP; (6). Emerging “poles”, such as India, Japan, South Africa, and Brazil, are actively seizing opportunities to elevate their standing; (7). Multipolarisation will inevitably involve social division, conflict both within and between states, arms races, and a lack of cooperation in addressing global challenges such as climate change, transnational crime, and international terrorism. Nevertheless, current clear indications - such as US President Donald Trump’s “peaceful” approach towards China and Russia, coupled with the transfer of greater security responsibilities to NATO allies - suggest that a multipolar world order could possibly emerge peacefully, thereby preventing war and conflict.

Prospects for a resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict

Following a 90-minute phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin (their first conversation since Russia launched its special military operation in Ukraine) during which they addressed numerous issues, particularly ways to resolve the Russia - Ukraine conflict, delegates attending the 2025 Munich Security Conference paid particular attention to related questions, such as: What are the details of the potential US - Russia agreement concerning the resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict? Will Ukraine recognise the four territories annexed by Russia, as the US Secretary of Defence previously stated? Will Ukraine and Europe be involved in the negotiations aimed at reaching an agreement to end the conflict? And who will guarantee Ukraine's security after an agreement ending the conflict is reached?

Following his meeting with US Vice President James David Vance at the Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared that he would not accept any peace agreement without Ukraine’s participation. Furthermore, the German Defence Minister argued that Europe cannot be expected to implement such an agreement, stating that Europe cannot shoulder the responsibility of guaranteeing Ukraine’s security if it is not involved in the negotiations. Many other leaders also warned that if the US merely seeks to secure a peace deal and subsequently ignores its post-conflict responsibilities, then both Europe and the US will be weakened and will consequently face greater challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.

How to protect Ukraine following a peace or ceasefire agreement was one of the key topics discussed at the Conference. According to the Danish Prime Minister, the easiest, cheapest, and quickest way is to admit Ukraine into NATO. However, speaking at the Conference, US Senator Lindsey Graham believed that a peace agreement in Ukraine would be very difficult to achieve due to widely divergent views. He added that once a peace agreement is reached, Ukraine will then be immediately admitted to NATO in case Russia violates it. Several viewpoints expressed at the Conference indicated that protecting Ukraine militarily is insufficient; it must also involve economic measures, requiring the integration and building up of an economically robust Ukraine to serve as a bulwark for Europe. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the country’s likely next Chancellor, argued that Europe must negotiate from a position of strength, and that Germany would be ready to assume a leadership role on the continent owing to its unique geostrategic and geo-economic position. Evidently, the countries participating in the Conference have yet to find a common voice on resolving the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Therefore, according to expert forecasts, it will be difficult to soon end this conflict, which has already lasted three years.

Relations between the US and its Asian allies

Asian leaders attending the Conference expressed concern regarding President Donald Trump’s handling of the Ukraine situation. They raised questions about whether the US remains a reliable partner for its Asian allies, and whether Japan and South Korea will need to ensure their own security autonomy. Nevertheless, the South Korean Foreign Minister expressed belief that the ROK - US alliance remains robust, and that Seoul can both strengthen its alliance ties with Washington whilst simultaneously improving relations with Beijing. For South Korea, the most crucial consideration is how to position itself between the US and China. Meanwhile, the Japanese Defence Minister argued that the US’s handling of the Ukraine issue will have a direct impact on its Asian allies.

According to the NATO Deputy Secretary General, security in Asia and Europe is inextricably linked. Therefore, NATO will also take an interest in and pursue engagement with Asia, not directly, but through its partner countries in the region. Regarding the East Sea issue, Singaporean Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen believed that China is establishing a Monroe Doctrine in Asia, similar to how the US applied it in the Americas in the early 19^th century.  Countries in the region are concerned that once China becomes sufficiently powerful, it will regard the Asian region as its “backyard”. Currently, China is simultaneously attempting to project strength towards external powers whilst placating its neighbours. However, according to experts, Beijing will likely find it difficult to achieve this dual objective.  

Europe at a fateful crossroads

A widely discussed issue at the 2025 Munich Security Conference was that the world order has fundamentally changed, with transatlantic relations drifting apart and suffering serious strains. For Europe, this represents a very challenging period, as the continent must comprehensively reassess its strategic environment and the direction of its security, diplomatic, and defence policy in the new era. And European leaders must somehow persuade their populations to understand the challenges of this new era and to support their governments. Speaking at the Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned European countries about the risk of a breakdown in relations with the US, stressing that the EU must become autonomous and defend itself. He called for Europe to establish its own army, incorporating the Ukrainian army, which he argues is the only battle-hardened force on the continent and capable of producing 1.5 million unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) annually. Czech President Petr Pavel, conversely, suggested that a US withdrawal from Europe presents an opportunity for the continent to mature and ensure its own security without the US. Meanwhile, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson warned that Europe must “wake up” to the reality that while the continent may not yet be in a state of war, it is no longer in a state of peace. He implied that the repeated underwater sabotage incidents affecting strategic infrastructure in the Baltic Sea are not coincidental, but represent a new form of warfare.  

According to experts, the statements made by European leaders at the Conference reveal a certain consensus on the actions required in the near future, alongside a recognition that the EU stands at a fateful crossroads. Against a backdrop of diverging viewpoints between the US and Europe - especially since President Donald Trump began his second term in office and the China - Russia alliance grew increasingly assertive - the “old continent” needs strategic adjustments to both bolster its defence capabilities and maintain diplomatic flexibility, thereby safeguarding its interests and upholding its position on the international stage.

The World needs Yalta 2.0

The Yalta Agreement, signed in February 1945 by the leaders of the victorious Second World War powers - the Soviet Union, the US, and the UK - aimed to establish the post-war world order, often referred to as the “Yalta order”. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the “Yalta order” consequently collapsed as well. The US then unilaterally assumed the right to establish a unipolar world order, capable of dominating global affairs. However, since Russia recovered its status as a great power, President Vladimir Putin has declared his non-acceptance of the US-led unipolar world order. He proposed a summit of the great powers that are permanent members of the UN Security Council to discuss a new world order. Experts refer to this proposed conference as “Yalta 2.0”. US President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and French President Hollande reportedly accepted this proposal at the time. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this conference did not materialise. Currently, US President Donald Trump advocates normalising relations with Russia following the conclusion of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The initiative to organise a “Yalta 2.0” Conference should, therefore, be considered by relevant parties to discuss the establishment of a multipolar world order.

Senior Colonel LE THE MAU