Amidst the growing complexity of geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region, countries have been promoting cooperation to deal with increasing security threats, with the US - Japan - Philippines trilateral cooperation as a case in point. The context and future of this cooperation mechanism, and its impacts on the region and the world are a matter of international concern.

Leaders of the US, Japan, and the Philippines at the White House (photo: nhandan.vn)

Context of trilateral cooperation

Competition for influence in the Indo-Pacific region has continued to heat up in recent times as relations between major powers have tended to shift from competitive cooperation to competition. In particular, the fact that major powers have stepped up their efforts to gather forces, asserting their position in relations with regional and international organisations and power centres, has caused regional countries to participate in these security associations and structures, which aims to protect respective national interests and simultaneously benefits major powers’ roles.

Pursuing a policy of strengthening national defence capabilities, Japan advocates enhancing its self-defence forces’ response to traditional and non-traditional security challenges as well as demonstrating its role as a major power. Accordingly, along with announcing the Indo-Pacific strategy, increasing defence spending and improving self-defence forces’ combat capabilities, Japan also promotes cooperation with the US, its only ally, in various fields and expands defence and security cooperation with the UK, Australia, and the Philippines. In April 2024, Japan participated in joint maritime patrols with the navies of the US, Australia, and the Philippines, gradually affirming its role as a major power in solving regional and international issues.

Since taking office in 2022, Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has adjusted the country’s policy with major powers. Unlike his predecessor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. pursues a "warm" relationship with the US and some Western countries while taking a hard line on what is considered hostility. Recently, the Philippines has strengthened its cooperation with allies and partners and actively participated in US-led security frameworks and structures in order to modernise the Military and deal with security threats and challenges regarding territorial sovereignty.

For a thorough and practical Indo-Pacific strategy (2022), the administration of the US President Joe Biden has built a series of "small circles" functioning as military alliances in the Indo-Pacific region such as US - Japan - South Korea, US - UK - Australia, US - Japan - India - Australia. Accordingly, the US has tied its allies to its "war chariot", which binds the latter to support the former militarily in the strategic competition between major powers. Furthermore, the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (2020) enables Washington to deploy offensive and defensive missile systems in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, etc. to prevent, contain, and threaten its opponents, at the same time maintaining strategic superiority as well as affirming its regional leading role. Particularly, the US also considers the Philippines an “important link in the chain”, a “solid outpost” in the Asia - Pacific region in reshaping the “strategic environment” surrounding its opponents. Against this backdrop, many researchers regard the first-ever US - Japan - Philippines Trilateral Summit, held in April 2024, as an important step to elevate the trilateral cooperation to new heights and to improve their response to increasing regional security challenges.

Content and future of trilateral cooperation

On 11 April 2024, in Washington DC, leaders of the United States, Japan, and the Philippines met for the first summit between the three countries. This marks the start of their trilateral cooperation in many fields, as well as the US’s efforts to bind itself closer to allies. At the summit, the three countries agreed to establish a centre for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, strengthen cooperation on maritime and economic security, and affirm defence commitments with their trilateral cooperation being institutionalised through formal medium- and long-term dialogue mechanisms. Besides, the three leaders also reiterated their strong opposition to any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo in the region by force or coercion.

Within the trilateral framework, President Joe Biden affirmed the United States' defence commitments to Japan and the Philippines in the coming time. The three leaders also agreed to increase joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and cyber security cooperation, further enhance the combat capabilities, rapid response capabilities, and interoperability of their forces on land, at sea, and in cyberspace. In fact, the US, Japan, and the Philippines have long maintained respective bilateral military ties based on the US - Japan Security Treaty (1951), the US - Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty (1951), and the Defence Guidelines, characterised by continued US military footprint in Japan and the Philippines. In recent years, the three countries have also conducted many joint exercises at sea, aiming to improve their interoperability and readiness to respond to emergency situations. According to military experts, in addition to improving each country’s defence capabilities, those exercises send opponents a message of solidarity and readiness to respond to any security threats and challenges.

Recently, Japan and the Philippines have promoted close security relations through the 2 plus 2 dialogue mechanism (between the two foreign and defence ministers). Additionally, Japan has also promoted the signing of mutual assistance agreements with the Philippines, allowing the two countries' military forces to conduct joint operations and support each other in emergency situations. For the Philippines, joint exercises with allies and partners, together with support from the US and Japan, have helped to gradually modernise its Military and improve naval combat capabilities.

Along with military cooperation, the three countries also focus on economic cooperation. The US and Japan pledged to invest in Filipino strategic industries, including semiconductor supply chains and  digital economy, while committing themselves to facilitate the Philippines’s attainment of upper middle income country status and beyond. Especially, the US also agreed to help the Philippines train semiconductor human resources (about 150,000 people), engaging the Philippines in semiconductor cooperation within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the US State Department’s International Technology Security and Innovation Fund. This not only helps the Philippines increase autonomy but also improves its resilience to economic impacts. The leaders also launched the Luzon Economic Corridor to accelerate coordinated investments in high-impact infrastructure projects, including rail, ports modernisation, clean energy, and semiconductor supply chains and deployments. Moreover, they also intended to cooperate in key and emerging technologies, such as open radio access networks (Open-RAN), to enable an open, interoperable, secure, reliable, and trusted information communications technology ecosystem in the Philippines etc. According to researchers, the three leaders' agreement to launch cooperation projects on information technology and human resource development in the semiconductor sector will boost their economic strength and reduce dependence on partners for some supplies in important areas. At the summit, the parties also considered establishing a humanitarian assistance and disaster relief centre at one or more of the nine Philippine military bases that the US has access to.

Many experts believe that the US - Japan - Philippines trilateral cooperation, which can bring important benefits to all the three countries, will face certain difficulties and challenges. Firstly, the cooperative resources have not been confirmed, while both the US and Japan are confronted with difficulties in budget resources. Secondly, the elaboration of trilateral cooperation into specific projects will be time-consuming. Thirdly, internal difficulties of each country, especially the 2024 US presidential election is nearing. In addition, the three countries also need to take into account reactions of regional major countries, especially cooperative activities that can cause tension. These issues require the three leaders to have a clear, transparent plan, with a specific road map and steps.

Regional and world impacts

According to researchers, the summit between the three leaders of the US, Japan, and the Philippines, although not yet making the three countries an official alliance, will clearly bring their trilateral cooperation to a higher level legally. The outcome of the summit will form an important basis for the three countries to deepen their trilateral cooperation in many fields in the future. Besides, it will also promote a new security structure in the Indo-Pacific region, thereby increasing the three countries’ roles in solving regional and international issues. Many politicians also believe the trilateral cooperation helps ensure maritime security in important seas and promote economic and trade relations between the three countries, making a significant contribution to the regional development.

However, it is also widely held that this cooperation mechanism could be counterproductive, which significantly affects the Asia - Pacific region. This is because if an official alliance is established, the deepened military cooperation between the US, Japan, and the Philippines will pose a great challenge to China, North Korea, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). According to military experts, with the US's promotion of military cooperation with Japan and the Philippines, plus a series of "small circles" - military alliances established by the US in the Indo-Pacific region, Washington is moving closer to building a "mini-NATO" in the Asia - Pacific region. This will increase geopolitical tensions, even leading to conflicts, threatening peace and stability in the Asia - Pacific region. It can affect ASEAN’s security and economic interests, provoking intra-ASEAN’s disunity.

There is widespread belief that in the context of the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict and the escalating war in the Middle East, the US, Japan, and the Philippines need to publicly announce their cooperative contents and continue to make contributions to peace, stability, cooperation, and development in the Asia - Pacific region.

NGUYEN HONG QUANG, PhD

Deputy Director of the Department for the Americas, Ministry of Foreign Affairs