In 2022, the world continued to witness a volatile panorama with dark and light colours interwoven. Strategic competition among major powers, local conflicts, boundary and territorial disputes, arms races, etc. happened in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic being controlled, yet its aftermaths still affect many countries. The National Defence Journal summarises and lists “Top 10 international defence and military events in 2022” as follows:
1. The Russia-Ukraine military conflict
Since its outbreak on 24th February, the Russia-Ukraine military conflict has become fiercer and sees no end in sight since there are involvement of external factors at different levels beside the participation of the two countries’ military forces, which has made the conflict increasingly complicated and unpredictable. According to international analysts, this conflict is the confrontation among major powers and centres of power to shape a new world order in the future. Therefore, the conflict is heating up and has profoundly affected all areas of social life of several countries in the world.
2. The U.S. announced its new National Security Strategy and National Defence Strategy
In October 2022, the White House announced the new National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Defence Strategy (NDS). Both documents highlight that the “post-Cold War era” has ended, and the U.S. is facing fierce competition with its rivals while identifying Russia and China as “the most urgent strategic challenges”. To achieve its goals, the U.S. attaches importance to the strategic motto of “combine deterrence” based on the synchronous use of military power (including nuclear arsenals), economic and political pressure, and the strong alliance to prevent itself from attacks from enemies. Additionally, the strategies suggest focusing on research and development of advanced technologies, including hypersonic missiles, cyberspace, AI, and directed energy weapons.
According to analysts, the new NSS and NDS do not have any major changes in thinking and policies. Instead, they emphasise the view that maintaining its “unique leadership” is the key for the U.S. to overcome global threats and “shape the future of the international order”.
3. NATO introduced the new Strategic Concept
The new Strategic Concept was adopted by the leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) on June 29, 2022. This concept identifies that NATO is entering a “new area of strategic competition” and emphasises three core tasks: deterrence and defence, prevention and resolution of crises, and collective defence. Notably, for the first time in more than ten years, NATO reidentifies Russia from a “strategic partner” to the most direct threat. Moreover, China has become an official subject in the new Strategic Concept for the first time and this country is identified as a long-term “systematic challenge”. Additionally, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan had their first participation in a NATO summit, which clearly shows the bloc’s changing perception of expanding its influence eastward.
4. The negotiations on the U.S.-Russia and NATO-Russia Security Treaty broke down
In early January 2022, U.S., NATO, and Russian officials negotiated the U.S.-Russia and NATO-Russia Security Treaty. The Russia-U.S. Security Treaty drafted by Russia includes 11 articles, in which Russia proposed the U.S. commit not to expand NATO eastward and not to admit former member countries of the Soviet Union to NATO, etc. The Russia-NATO Security Treaty proposed by Russia has 9 articles, in which Russia also asked NATO not to continue expanding, including a commitment not to admit Ukraine and Georgia as members. In addition, Russia proposed that the two sides would not deploy intermediate-range missiles in areas where they could reach the other side’s territory.
However, due to the lack of mutual understanding, the Russia-U.S. and Russia-NATO Security Treaty proposed by Russia has not been signed. While the U.S. and NATO opposed Russia imposing its will on U.S. and NATO foreign policy, which they consider “unacceptable”, Russia asserted that its demands on the U.S. and NATO are only to ensure fair security between the parties and warned that it would take all legal measures when being threatened. In that case, relations between Russia and the U.S. and NATO will encounter extremely unpredictable consequences. In fact, the breakout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has threatened the security of Europe and the world.
5. North Korea passed a new law declaring itself a nuclear weapons state
In 2022, North Korea conducted 18 missile tests in response to military exercises by the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its allies condemned North Korea’s missile launches as provocative and destabilising. Notably, on November 2, 2022, Pyongyang launched at least 23 missiles toward the east and west seas of the Korean peninsula. The launch marked the first time a North Korean missile had landed near South Korean territorial waters since the Korean peninsula was divided more than 70 years ago.
On September 8, 2022, the North Korean National Assembly passed a law declaring itself a nuclear weapons state, affirming that the country would not discuss nuclear disarmament and allowing pre-emptive nuclear strikes if threatened. According to international analysts, the passage of this law is intended to regulate the situation for Pyongyang to use nuclear weapons, which includes the ability to respond to or prevent an attack with weapons of mass destruction of the enemy against the “strategic objectives” of this country.
6. The EU approved a plan to build an independent defence
On March 21, 2022, the EU approved the “historic” Strategic Orientation, which is building an independent defence, also known as the “Strategic Compass” Plan. This plan consists of four pillars, namely: action, investment, partnership, and security, in which, priority is given to the establishment of a quick response force of about 5,000 people equipped with modern equipment, capable of flexibly operating in and out of the region. Accordingly, the EU would increase its defence budget to invest in research, development, and procurement of advanced weapons and technical equipment as well as expand multilateral military cooperation to protect the values and interests of the alliance regionally and globally. Besides, the EU would use the European Peace Facility to support the defence development of its member states and to assist its partners in necessary military operations. The EU leaders stated that the “Strategic Compass” would be a guideline, opening a promising direction for the EU’s independent defence and security policy in the near future.
7. Russia adopted a new Maritime Doctrine
On July 31, 2022, Russian President V.Putin signed a decree approving a new Maritime Doctrine. Compared with the 2015 Maritime Doctrine, the new Doctrine witnesses important changes in favour of a comprehensive confrontation with the West, advocating to increase the presence and combat capabilities of the Russian Navy in international seas. To achieve its strategic goals, Russia would completely restructure the shipbuilding industry, expand its production capabilities, use new technologies in both the military and civilian areas, and restore seabed exploration and fossil fuel production. The new doctrine advocates strengthening relations with Russia’s friends and partners to ensure its military presence in the Mediterranean, Gulf of Persia, and other strategic seas. The doctrine offers three levels of benefits: (1). “Regions of vital interest”: Russia can use all its strength to defend. (2) “Critical areas”: the use of force as a last resort. (3). “Other regions”: the rest of international waters, where Russian interests will be promoted by non-violent means.
According to international analysts, the 2022 Maritime Doctrine is the first national security document that Russia has published since the conflict in Ukraine, reflecting the strategic thinking of the Kremlin at present.
8. Japan announced new Defence Strategy
In November 2022, Japan approved three important documents including “National Security Strategy”, “National Defence Strategy”, and “Defence Capability Improvement Programme”. According to analysts, there are several notable contents in the three documents related to Japan’s defence sector. (1). The “National Security Strategy” identifies China as the biggest strategic challenge ever for Japan. (2). The “National Defence Strategy” states that Japan is able to “counterattack” in case of emergency. (3). The “Defence Capability Development Programme” defines a plan to increase the defence budget for the 2023-2027 period to 43 trillion yen (approximately $315 billion), an increase of 15.5 trillion yen compared to the 2019-2023 period. According to observers, major challenges in Japan’s security policy aim to boost its defence capabilities as well as its strength in the face of unpredictable regional and global developments.
9. Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO
At the NATO Summit in September 2022, member countries reached a consensus for Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Previously, in May 2022, the two countries applied to join this organisation. According to NATO officials, the ratification process for full membership will take up to one year. After the process, these two countries will be placed under the protection of Article 5 of the Treaty, which is, all member countries will have to fight alongside NATO if any country is attacked and vice versa. The fact that the two countries with history of neutrality joined NATO has shown a change in the stance of these countries due to the profound impact of the regional and global security situation.
10. Countries loosened or abolished measures to prevent and control the Covid-19 pandemic
As more than half of the world’s population (54%) has been vaccinated against the disease, the Covid-19 pandemic is under control in many countries. Most countries have issued a roadmap for loosening or abolishing measures to prevent and control the pandemic, bringing society back to a normal state, allowing border openings, and resumption of international trade by air, land, sea, etc.
In the field of military and defence, the control of the Covid-19 pandemic has allowed countries to reorganise military activities, and maintain and develop the combat capabilities of their countries. In particular, through participation in the prevention and control of the pandemic, the military’s capability to respond to non-traditional security challenges has been enhanced and it is indispensable in crisis management, contributing to assuring the world’s stability and peace.