After enduring numerous trials and fluctuations, the bond between the two allies, the US and the Philippines, has once again become tightly interwoven under the leadership of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. This attests to the paramount significance of this alliance for both nations in the context of regional security undergoing profound turbulences. This matter also garners the attention of the international public opinion.

The optimal selection

The official visit of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines to the US in early May 2023 established a new milestone for the bilateral relations between the two nations. Recognised as traditional allies, yet President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was the first Philippine Head of State to embark on an official visit to the US over the past decade. The candid and affable discussion between him and President Joe Biden, marked by mutual consensus on various collaborative matters, has formally inaugurated a fresh chapter characterised by the fervency of the US-Philippine alliance. This highly anticipated diplomatic journey unfolds against the backdrop of a transformative atmosphere within bilateral relations, following President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s assumption of office in June 2022. Within less than a year, a series of cooperation agreements between Manila and Washington, notably in the realm of national defence, have been sealed, underscoring the shared commitment of both nations to uphold the security foundation as a pivotal pillar for fortifying the enduring US’ alliance across the Asian expanse.

The most conspicuous manifestation of the fervent bond between the two nations is encapsulated in the Philippines’ concurrence to extend the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the US, signed in 2014. Under this accord, the US has been granted access to an additional four military bases in the Philippines, augmenting the five existing facilities stipulated within the framework of EDCA. These new strategic locations, namely the Camilo Osias naval base, Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan province, the Melchor Dela Cruz base in Isabela province, and the Balabac base in Palawan province, have been deemed of great strategic significance. Consequently, the US will possess a total of nine military bases, enabling its personnel to engage in rotational stationing within the Philippines. The subsequent impetus towards an expanded security cooperation trajectory between the two nations lies in the reinitiation of the 2+2 dialogue involving the top diplomatic and defence officials from both sides after a seven-year hiatus, which signifies remarkable progress in the US-Philippine alliance. Extending beyond mere paper proclamations, the two allies have devised plans for over 500 joint military activities in 2023 - surpassing any of the US’ allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific, including the resumption of joint maritime patrols in the East Sea and the organisation of the largest Balikatan annual exercise in the past three decades. Notably, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. himself observed the naval engagement exercise in the East Sea during the Balikatan exercise, leaving a profound impression. This event marked the first instance in over a decade that a Philippine President participated in such an event, a gesture that conveys a resolute commitment to reinvigorate the 72-year-old military alliance between the US and the Philippines.

In fact, since assuming office, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has advocated a foreign policy stance that sharply contrasts with his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. Throughout his tenure, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte maintained a clear anti-US stance, refusing to allow the US to store weapon systems as well as limiting rotational military access to strategic bases near the East Sea as per the EDCA, thus curtailing most large-scale joint exercises, and cooling relations with allies across the Pacific. In stark contrast to his predecessor, in the early days of his presidency, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. “refrained from” any critical remarks about Washington in his significant speeches. He swiftly adjusted his strategy and leaned towards this historical partner. This shift in direction stems from the 65-year-old leader’s recognition that the Philippines finds itself in the world’s most complex geopolitical region, driven by overt and covert disputes within the Asia-Pacific, including the East Sea. The Philippines has also voiced grievances over China’s activities within its 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone. Even during the tenure of former President Rodrigo Duterte, who proactively maintained close ties with China, tensions in the East Sea persisted, and at times escalated, leading him to face significant domestic pressure. This compelled him to postpone the termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) and the presence of US military forces in the Philippines. The public’s expectations for a leader capable of addressing sovereignty issues were among the reasons that propelled Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to the presidency, as he pledged to implement a more balanced policy upon victory. Having staunchly asserted that the Philippines would not yield “even an inch of territory”, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s pursuit of new security assurances with the world’s foremost military power through a series of vigorous moves to enhance defence ties with the US clearly showcases his determination to safeguard the nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. In reality, the Philippines’ establishment of a closer relationship with the US is entirely a “natural” choice. Up to this point, Washington remains Manila’s foremost important defence partner, where security commitments have become the primary pillar. Both nations share important defence agreements, with the US being a sponsor for various modernisation projects within the Philippine military. Besides, the world’s leading superpower is the only nation bound to the Philippines by the Mutual Defence Treaty (MDT) signed in 1951. The transformation of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s approach towards the US is relatively opportune, given that the two countries have shared a close relationship for decades. Within the Philippine political landscape, the desire for friendly relations with the US and the maintenance of a strong alliance with the US has been enduring trends, varying according to international and regional contexts. Especially in a security environment where the region is facing challenges, the “vigilant” perspective in relation to the US held by former President Rodrigo Duterte has grown less pronounced. The political sphere and public sentiment in the Philippines seem to have diminished their faith in individual diplomatic efforts to address issues in the East Sea, recognising that reinforcing defence cooperation with the US offers a more effective assurance while enhancing the nation’s strength to protect its sovereignty and territory. In addition to national security concerns, the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone in the East Sea also holds significant benefits in terms of natural resources. As global energy security faces challenges due to the military conflict in Ukraine, Manila aspires to swiftly engage in the exploration and exploitation activities of its offshore gas reserves. However, this endeavour proves to be far from straightforward within the current complex regional context.

A strategic card

According to international researchers, the restoration of the US-Philippine alliance is not solely an accomplishment of the new government in Manila, but also a great triumph for Washington. By elevating military cooperation with the Philippines, the US continues to expand its potent footprint in Southeast Asia - an area of paramount importance for the execution of the Pivot to Asia strategy initiated during the tenure of former President Barack Obama in the early 2010s. This marked a distinct shift in the strategic calculus of the US, as the Obama administration exhibited a firmer stance in the East Sea. Subsequently, the administration of former President Donald Trump officially rebuffed China’s “Nine-Dash Line” claim. Upon entering his term and amid lukewarm US-China relations, President Joe Biden prioritised strengthening US alliances and partnerships. By promoting strategic security dialogues and investing in various diplomatic, military, and economic initiatives, the US is striving to actualise its commitment to restoring leadership in the Indo-Pacific - a core tenet of its Asia-oriented policy. This region is emerging as a strategically pivotal area, attracting attention and competitive influence among both established and rising global powers.

International public opinion suggests that within the context of both traditional and non-traditional security threats that continually permeate the region, giving rise to unforeseen instabilities, the strengthening of the US-Philippine alliance holds paramount importance for the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy it currently pursues. With its numerous advantages, the Philippines serves as a pivotal piece to the puzzle in the US’ strategic calculations. Geographically, the nation is situated at the core of the first island chain in the US’ three-pronged strategy in the region, aiming to check adversaries. At a strategic level, the US designates the Philippines as a crucial anchor for small-scale multilateral cooperation, employing it as a “frontline base” to establish diverse cooperative frameworks to address security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. Consequently, analysts contend that in this new collaborative version, the Washington-Manila relationship is evolving from the traditional “hub and spokes” model within the US’ alliance network to a more contemporary structure, involving the participation of US allies in the region. Presently, the Philippines has agreed to fortify trilateral cooperation with Japan and Australia, and prospects for joint patrols among these nations are deemed entirely feasible in the near future.

The “positive return” of the US to the Philippines underscores a change in the policy of the world’s leading superpower in the East Sea towards bolstering its deterrence capabilities. After several years of relative “passivity” in matters concerning this maritime region, the US has significantly enhanced its presence and devised a new approach. In this regard, the large-scale deployment of troops and the construction of two major military bases at Clark Field in Pampanga province and Subic Bay in Zambales province of the Philippines are no longer appropriate choices. Instead, the US will focus on investing in smaller bases to facilitate “gentle and flexible” activities such as supply and surveillance. Therefore, the increase in accessible bases in the Philippines, as part of this new commitment becomes an optimal solution. Although technological advancements may diminish the importance of many military bases, they still hold strategic significance for the US in the periphery of Asia due to the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean.

After the Cold War, the number of US bases in the Western Pacific diminished, resulting in a reduction of US forces’ presence. This decline led to doubts among allies regarding Washington’s commitment to its partnerships. Therefore, the effort to upgrade relations with the Philippines signifies that the US is elevating its commitments to the region to a new level and intends to continue asserting its leadership position as a superpower. However, international public opinion also posits that this move could potentially escalate tensions in an already tense region, impacting both regional and global security.

VAN KHANH – DUC MANH