In the context of complicated and unpredictable developments in world and regional security and politics, and fierce strategic competition, one major trend of major countries is to gather forces to increase their strength. One typical example is the US - Japan - Korea alliance and its cooperation with partners. The ambition of this alliance and the extent of its influence are an issue of great concern to international opinion.

Although no conflict has been recorded in the region so far, Northeast Asia is still one of the world's potential flashpoints with increased heat in recent times. According to experts, this region’s security is being challenged by China's strengthened military might, North Korea's accelerated missile tests, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Russia's increased presence in the Far East. This necessitates Northeast Asian countries in general, and Japan and South Korea in particular, to adjust their defence and security strategies, notably the two countries' participation in the trilateral summit held by the US in August 2023.

Efforts to adjust the balance of forces

Faced with complexities in the world and regional situation and to improve their adaptability to security challenges, the Japanese Government pursues a defence policy aimed at strengthening defence capacity, improving the response capabilities of the Self-Defence Forces and reducing military dependence on the US. Accordingly, Tokyo seeks to improve the Self-Defence Forces' ability to respond to new warring methods, and traditional and non-traditional security challenges, through promoting and tightening bilateral and multilateral defence cooperation with its allies and partners. To this end, Japan's Defence White Paper provides for an increase in defence spending up to 2% of gross domestic product and another amount of 43,500 billion yen (equal to 322.2 billion USD) for developing missile defence systems, fire, air defence, unmanned aerial vehicles; maintenance and repair of military equipment; defence research; strengthening technical equipment for the Self-Defense Forces, etc. within the next 5 years.

For South Korea, in June 2023, the administration of President Yoon Suk-yeol announced the National Security Strategy, considering the development of North Korea's missile and nuclear programmes as the most urgent threat. Thus, it can be understood that if the US sees China as a security challenge to stability in the Indo-Pacific region, South Korea sees North Korea as an urgent security threat. This strategy also emphasises the importance of improving the defence capacity of the Republic of Korea Armed Forces as well as strengthening the common defence posture with the United States. The Blue House aims to develop powerful armed forces with advanced technology to create a solid security. Also, it seeks to promote cooperation with allies and partners to ensure a sustainable peace, freedom and prosperity for the Korean Peninsula as well as Northeast Asia.

As can be seen, the changes of Japan and South Korea in defence and security strategies were made in the context of new developments in relations between China, Russia and North Korea. Although no official alliance has been formed, the presence of the Russian and Chinese delegations at the 70th Anniversary of the end of the Korean War  in July 2023, followed by high-level visits of leadership of the three countries afterward has marked a great advance in the relationship between the three countries. Researchers hold that the get-together of Russia, China, and North Korea will  pose a risk to the US, Japan, and South Korea, because the US has bilateral security treaties with Japan and South Korea, but there is no agreement to connect these two countries in common security activities. What's more, the level of security cooperation between the US with Japan and South Korea depends on the relationship between Tokyo and Seoul. Those are the main driving forces pushing the US - Japan - Korea towards new cooperation for the goal of readjusting the balance of forces and overall strength in the region. Accordingly, in August 2023, Washington hosted the US-Japan-Korea Summit for the first time, to further institutionalise the security cooperation mechanism between the three countries - a very important trilateral relationship in Northeast Asia in the 21st century. At the Summit, leaders of the three countries shared joint initiatives on technology and defence; discussed a common vision and basic principles for building a comprehensive, multi-layered cooperation mechanism in many fields and at all levels; proposed modern industrial cooperation measures and ways to respond to economic security issues and risks related to supply chains and energy, with the aim of bringing Northeast Asia to prosperous development. Notably, in the "Spirit of Camp David" Joint Statement, the three countries affirmed a common approach to issues of geopolitical competition. This is an important factor in creating a new mechanism in trilateral consultation to respond to challenges, provocative actions, and threats to the common interests and security of the three countries, especially threats to maritime security, technology, economics, cyber security, the recovery of supply chain and advanced technology development.

Experts hold that in the near future, the US-Japan-Korea alliance may not change the balance of forces in the region, but in the long term, when cooperation mechanisms are consolidated and strengthened, cooperation in the military field has a new development, this alliance will be likely to create a "formidable" force in Northeast Asia.

Ambition to expand power through the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) Security Partnership Treaty

By the end of 2023, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the British House of Commons published the report entitled "Tilting Horizons: the Integrated Review and the Indo-Pacific Report Summary". The report addresses many  foreign and security issues of the UK and those related to the Indo-Pacific region at the strategic level, including the proposal to the US and Australia to establish an AUKUS partnership with Japan and Korea. This proposal needs discussion and approval, but it has been seriously considered by US, Japanese and Korean officials for the following reasons:

Firstly, as both island nations, Japan and Korea’s main connection to the world is through maritime routes. Therefore, maritime routes play an extremely important role in these two economies. In fact, the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca or the East China Sea are all very important to Japan and South Korea in energy imports. In the event of problems or if they are blocked in an emergency, the two countries' economies will be at risk of crisis. Therefore, closer cooperation with the US, UK and Australia will be beneficial for Japan and Korea.

Second, if AUKUS serves as a foundation for core technology cooperation between the US, UK and Australia in the future as targeted by this group, it will also bring significant benefits to Japan and South Korea when participating in AUKUS, especially in the fields of space, cyberspace and undersea cables. As the Fourth Industrial Revolution is taking place strongly, communication between countries, organisations, individuals as well as direction and administration activities are all done via satellite or undersea cable, military operations conducted through this means become extremely important. Therefore, to gain the upper hand in the race for space and cyber security, countries are forced to cooperate together in building cyber infrastructure and fibre optic cables as well as having strategies to protect them.

Third, although the relationship between Tokyo and Seoul has gradually been improved because of the need for cooperation in the US-Japan-Korea alliance, this relationship has still not been much approved by the people. Therefore, the leaders of Japan and South Korea must clearly show to their people the benefits of US-Japan-Korea cooperation. Moreover, if Japan and South Korea cooperate with AUKUS in the fields of maritime security, space and cyber security, this can help the two countries promote the development of new industries to approach the advanced technology of the Indo-Pacific region which will be very persuasive to the people.

In addition, if Japan and South Korea join AUKUS, this will be an important basis to help relevant parties increase their military power against threats through the existing defence framework, by both Japan and South Korea. Both countries spend large budgets on defence; have strong standing forces with high levels of combat skills and modern military equipment. South Korea and Japan ranked 6th and 7th, respectively in the report of the Global Firepower on the military power of world countries in 2023.

In recent years, Korea has been able to self supply personal weapons, aircraft, warships, military equipment and vehicles, and become an arms export to many countries with notable products, such as: K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzer, K2 Black Panther tank, etc. By the end of April 2023, the Korean Navy was reinforced with one more electric and diesel powered submarine produced domestically. As for Japan, although it is worse off than other countries as not having a large strength as prescribed by the constitution or good logistics resources due to limited natural resources), it still possesses a powerful military force with many destroyers, battleships, fighters, tanks and other modern combat vehicles. Furthermore, Japan has been said to strengthen its Self-Defence Forces, as it is planning to equip more 1,000 cruise missiles with a range of 200km to 1,000km, fifth generation F-35 fighters and increase military activities in the Southwestern islands.

According to researchers, if Japan and South Korea join the AUKUS, the add-on military power brought about by the two countries will make the alliance a new force capable of deterring many fields and may change the game in the Indo-Pacific region.

LAM PHUONG - HUU TUAN