For many years, especially since the outbreak of Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022, the trend of military build-up has intensified all over the world, including the Asia - Pacific region. Although it has yet to reach the level of an arms race, this trend has been impacting various aspects of global and regional security and development.
A worrying Trend
According to a report published on 22 April 2024 by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global military spending in 2023 saw the most significant rise in over a decade, increasing from 6.8% to an all-time high of $2.443 trillion. Amidst the escalation of wars and tensions across various regions, military spending has risen globally, particularly in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. For the first time ever since 2009, military spending has increased across all five continents. In 2023, defence spending accounted for 2.3% of global GDP, leading to an average per capita expenditure of $306 globally. This is a thought-provoking reality given that billions of individuals still struggle to survive on less than $2 a day.
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| USS Abraham Lincoln operating in the Asia - Pacific region (illustrative photo) |
A March 2024 report from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) documented a total of 55 on-going armed conflicts worldwide and emphasised that “humanity has rarely faced such a large number of escalating crises”. In 2022, the United States continued to have the largest defence budget at $877 billion, followed by China ($232 billion), Russia ($86.4 billion), India ($81.4 billion), Saudi Arabia ($75 billion), the United Kingdom ($68.5 billion), Germany ($55.8 billion), France ($53.6 billion), South Korea ($46.4 billion), and Japan ($46 billion), respectively. This trend turned out to be even stronger in 2023. Notably, the average rate of growth in defence budgets in 2023 was more than twice that of the global economy. In other words, the world is producing “more guns than butter”. This reflects a decline in peace and strategic trust globally, as well as growing security concerns. According to SIPRI, Europe has witnessed a significant increase in arms imports, with a rise of 94% from 2014 to 2023.
The Asia - Pacific Region and instabilities
Despite Europe’s increased military spending, it is the countries in Asia, Oceania, and the Middle East that are the most aggressive arms purchasers. These regions now have 9 out of the world’s top 10 arms importers. Strategic competition among major powers, coupled with numerous hotspots and territorial, maritime, and island disputes, has made the Asia - Pacific region a focal point in the trend of military build-up. Some countries with territorial and maritime disputes with Beijing have quietly bolstered their own military power.
Although the trend of increasing military spending is widespread, it is primarily concentrated within a small group, by far led predominantly by the United States and China. These two superpowers account for 50% of the world’s total military expenditure. In 2024, the United States spent $916 billion on defence (a 2.3% increase over 2023 and a 9.6% increase compared to the average rate over the 2014-2023 period), including $35.7 billion specifically allocated to support Kyiv.
Due to strategic competition with China and Russia, as well as the need for military aid for Ukraine and its involvement in numerous global hotspots, the US has developed a massive defence procurement plan. Currently, it operates over 750 military bases across all continents except Antarctica and is engaged in counter-terrorism efforts in 85 countries worldwide. This war machine consumes an enormous budget. Even before the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the US Department of Defence projected at least $7.3 trillion in spending over the next decade - four times the budget allocated for President Biden’s $1.7 trillion “Build Back Better” plan. However, the war in Ukraine, with its unprecedented rate of materiel attrition on the battlefield, has also generated hefty profits for American military-industrial complexes.
Compared to the US, China’s military spending is more modest but still overwhelmingly surpasses other countries in the region. In 2024 alone, China spent $296 billion (a 6% increase from 2023 and 60% more than the average of the past decade), accounting for half of the total military spending in Asia and Oceania. International observers suggest that China’s actual defence budget is significantly higher than the disclosed figure, as funds allocated for research and development are not included in this budget.
Alongside the US and China, Russia continues to assert itself as a formidable military power. After initial challenges in the Russian conflict against Ukraine, Russia’s defence industry has gradually adapted to wartime conditions, demonstrating a production capacity that has taken both the US and the West by surprise. Russia’s defence spending in 2024 increased by 1.7 times compared to that in 2023. While this figure remains below the Soviet Union’s military expenditure levels of 12% - 17% of GDP, it is comparable to US military spending in the 1980s. Notably, for the first time in modern Russian history, military spending has accounted for 6% of GDP, surpassing social sector expenditures.
From a supply perspective, data from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) show that NATO’s share of the global arms export market increased from 62% to 72% between 2019 and 2023, meaning that NATO now holds nearly three-quarters of the world’s arms market. SIPRI’s report reveals that, for the first time in 25 years, the US has become the largest arms supplier to Asia and Oceania, providing 34% of the region’s weapons imports, compared to Russia’s 19% and China’s 13%, respectively. However, South Korea has significantly improved in the ranking of arms dealers over the past two years, thanks to substantial export orders, particularly from Eastern European countries. According to SIPRI, South Korea became the world’s ninth-largest arms dealers in 2022, up from its 31st position in 2000.
From an arms import perspective, SIPRI’s report indicates a significant rise in defence procurement within the Asia - Pacific region, accounting for 41% of global arms purchases between 2018 and 2022. Arms imports in East Asia grew by 21%, with two of the US’s largest allies, South Korea and Japan, recording the highest increases at 61% and 171%, respectively. Japan, after decades of following a “pacifist” stance, is set to acquire unprecedented offensive capabilities since the 1940s, including its plans to purchase hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US. Australia, the largest arms importer in Oceania, saw a 23% increase, while Malaysia purchased fighter jets from South Korea. Taiwan has also increased its arms purchases from the US and has introduced a super home-built landing craft, while the Philippines is planning to expand airstrips and seaports to be able to host the largest US military presence in decades. Additionally, Australia has announced a $200 billion plan to develop nuclear-powered submarines with the US and the UK under the AUKUS agreement, aiming to become the 7th nation in the world to possess nuclear-powered submarines.
According to SIPRI, India ranks as the world’s third-largest defence spender and the largest global arms importer, accounting for 9.8% of global imports from 2019 to 2023, with its arms imports increasing slightly as it diversifies suppliers beyond Russia. Between 2014 and 2023, India increased its additional arms imports by 4.7%, with Russia remaining its primary supplier, contributing 36% of India’s total arms imports. Despite the challenging global economic environment, in the 2023 - 2024 fiscal year, India was one of the few major countries to boast double-digit growth in its defence budget, up 13% to $72.6 billion.
Multiple causes, one effect
According to international analysts, the trend of bolstering military capability in the Asia - Pacific region is driven by security concerns arising from geostrategic competition, territorial and maritime disputes, and the repercussions of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The world is shifting from an old order to a new one. Political scientist Graham Allison has noted that, historically, amongst 16 cases of power transition between the world’s No.1 and No.2 superpowers, up to 12 cases resulted in war. This precedent is especially troubling amid the increasingly intense US - China strategic competition in the Asia - Pacific. A major risk for the region is that all four major hotspots that include the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea, the East Sea, and the Taiwan Strait - are directly linked to and affected by US - China strategic competition.
Today, economic interdependence and the presence of nuclear weapons make wars between major powers difficult to imagine. However, realities of the Russia - Ukraine conflict underscore that the risk of direct conflict between major powers and even nuclear war cannot be ruled out. Over a century ago, World War I still erupted despite significant economic interdependence among European nations at that time.
Even if open conflict does not occur, the current military build-up in the Asia - Pacific region could lead to many unintended consequences. Firstly, resources needed for socio-economic development will be significantly reduced, and many countries in the region risk failing to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Furthermore, distrust among neighbouring countries is likely to deepen alongside the growth in military power, driven by the security dilemma.
Thus, strengthening dialogue and promoting peaceful measures based on international law to resolve disputes between nations is the only way to address this problem. Now more than ever, Asia-Pacific nations need to build strategic trust, as history has shown that military solutions have never been the right answer to inter-state issues.
VU DUY THANH, PhD
Ministry of Foreign Affairs