Facing international pressure and the need to protect the newly-established regimes, military leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger signed a historic pact to create the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) on 6 July 2024 in Niamey, Niger. So, what causes the birth of the Alliance and its effect on the region and the world are matters of great concern.

Context of Alliance

According to international analysts, after successful military coups and seizure of power, military governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger confronted huge pressure from international community. The United Nations Security Council and international, regional organisations all strongly criticised the military coups in these countries. They categorised the coups as illegal activities and requested military governments in the three countries to transfer power to elected civilian governments. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), an economic, political organisation the three countries are members, has decided to suspend their membership, closed the borders with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, and threated to use force to restore civilian regimes as regulated by the Charter of the ECOWAS. Nevertheless, this Community has withdrawn its strong statements later on. The United States, European Union (EU), and many other countries also have also imposed sanctions and suspended their aid for the three countries until transfer of power to the so-called legitimate civilian governments. Contradiction was deepened when the military governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger compelled France, Germany, and the Western states to close their embassies and military bases and withdraw their advisors and troops from the three countries. The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) also withdrew their forces from Mali. The aforementioned moves make regional situations extremely tense and pose huge challenges to the military governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

Leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed in the historic pact to found the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in Niamey on 6 July 2024 (Photo: VNA)

The birth of the Federation and its objectives

In the face of pressure and challenges from various sides, the three military governments signed a historic agreement to form the Mali – Burkina Faso – Niger Federation (also known as the Alliance of Sahel States) on 6 July 2024 in Niamey, Niger. According to the agreement, AES will cover an area of approximately 2,700,000 square kilometres and have a population of over 72 million. In the context of mounting external pressure, AES regards the establishment of an architecture of collective defence and the commitment to mutual assistance as efforts to ensure common security and respond to potential threats. The protection of regimes, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of each country and the Federation as a whole is a matter of utmost importance. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger had also inked a mutual defence pact to support one another in case of any insurgencies or invasions on 16 September 2023. The security pact states, “Any attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of one or more contracted parties will be considered an aggression against the other parties” and “Countries will provide individual or collective assistance for the attacked countries, including the use of armed forces.”

Through the formation of the Federation, governments of the three countries pledge to closely coordinate operational activities, training, collective defence exercises, development of defence industry, cooperation in weapon production, and logistical, technical support should a conflict occur. The parties also manage to counter operations of Al Qaeda- and ISIS-linked extremist Islamic armed groups in their countries, especially at the border triangle which is considered the lair of terrorist organisations in West Africa. Beside cooperations in defence and security, AES also promotes cooperation in strategic fields such as agriculture, trade, service, water security, energy, transport, communications, and so on. They attach importance to exploitation of national resources to promote economic recovery and social security, improve working people’s life, enhance education quality, preserve cultural identity and national harmony, and so forth. Leaders of the three countries will also continue to discuss and decide to establish an investment bank and use a common currency in the time to come. Regarding foreign relations, AES values cooperation with countries in the region and the world on the basis of equality, mutual benefit, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and determination to counter colonialism and interference.

“AES will be built into a community of sovereign peoples without being controlled by foreign forces and a sub-regional minilateral effective against terrorism,” said General Abdourahamane Tiani, head of the military government in Niger during a press conference.

Influence on the region and the world

According to international analysts, like any other West African countries, despite rich natural resources, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have been among the poorest and most insecure countries in the world for decades. This is mainly due to the weak governance and interference of external forces. These are also the main causes of frequent military coups. The military governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger declare that they struggle for “regaining independence and sovereignty of the country as well as freedom of people,” helping the people to get rid of Western countries’ neocolonialism. Leader of the three countries also state, “We form an AES of the people to replace an ECOWAS instructed by major powers outside Africa.” Many international analysts believe that the militaries’ seizure of power in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger is one of the factors that promotes the struggle for eliminating the remaining relics of the colonial system established by France and Western powers in West Africa.

In fact, the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from ECOWAS to found AES is presenting many complex issues that need to be resolved because they not only affect ECOWAS but also pose great risks to economies in West Africa. Recently, despite ECOWAS’s efforts to defuse the situation, including the proposal to regrant three countries’ membership, extension of the time for transferring power to civilian governments, etc., the relationship between ECOWAS and military governments of three countries has not improved. Leaders of AES refuse the proposals frankly and declare, “they feel disappointed when ECOWAS has been deflected from ideals of founders and provided little assistance for countries in the fight against terrorism and instability.” Since Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are founders of ECOWAS and used to play a vital role in this organisation, their relinquishment of ECOWAS membership will expose this economic, political organisation with 15 member countries to the possibility of disintegration. Many experts warn that the collapse of ECOWAS not only have many consequences for weak economies in West Africa and the free trade area in Africa, but also worsen security of the region.

Additionally, AES’s severance of relations with Western countries will disrupt the supply chain between West Africa with Europe, thus causing huge damage to regional and global economy. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have long been countries that provide critical natural resources for European powers. Niger is rich in uranium reserves and plays a key role in global energy. According to the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Niger’s global market share of uranium has been between four and six percent during the past decade. This country meets about 15% of France’s uranium demands and contributes nearly 20% of EU’s uranium reserves. Niger produced over 2,000 tons of uranium in 2022. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are key gold exporters of EU and many other countries in the world. Economic experts are concerned that the three countries’ severance of trade ties will force European countries adjust their strategies and search for alternative fuel resources with much higher prices. This will also have considerable influence on the supply chains between the two continents and do great damage to regional and global economy.

Implications for domestic issues

According to researchers, together with external pressures, domestic issues of AES member states are witnessing complex developments and directly threatening the future of the Federation. Al Qaeda- and ISIS-linked Islamic organisations are intensifying terrorist activities with a view to filling the power vacuum that was left by France. Moreover, the rise of opposition political parties and factions as well as the rifts within the military governments are matters that need to be addressed. Recently, Rhissa Ag Boula, a former rebel leader and minister of tourism of Niger between 1996 and 2004, has announced to establish the anti-coup movement with the aim to restore President Bazoum’s power who is being prosecuted for treason and driving the country into insecurity. The military junta of Burkina Faso declared that they had defeated a coup attempt. The political, security situation in Mali is also very complex. The military junta must extend curfew in many areas nationwide to cope with operations of militant Islamic extremist groups.

The international community is deeply concerned with complex developments in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and elsewhere in West Africa. In fact, the military coup in Mali in 2021 was the third one within the last 10 years. Since its independence, Burkina Faso has experienced eight coups, in which the military coup to establish the present military junta was the second one in 2022. Niger has witnessed four successful coups and many other unsuccessful attempts since its independence. Therefore, whether the foundation of AES will bring about much-needed security for economic development and people’s better life in the three countries and the Federation as expected or is only a domino effect remains an unanswered question.

MINH DUC and NGOC HUU