Recently, the world has been witnessing complex developments in Sudan. Although major powers are making every effort to broker a ceasefire between two factions within the military government in this country, there is no sign of progress and fighting continues. The international community is afraid that Sudan will become a “powder keg” in the region.
Struggle for power
Sudan, located in important position between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, is Africa’s third largest country by area. Civil wars and conflicts relating to religion and struggle for power have raged this country since its independence from British colonialists and Egypt in 1956. Sudan today is founded after the conflict in 2003 in Darfur (West Sudan) when opposition armed groups rebelled against the government of Omar al-Bashir, who had been the President of Sudan since the military coup backed by Islamist movements in 1989. Omar al-Bashir was accused of oppressing the non-Arab population. To suppress the revolts in Darfur, President Omar al-Bashir allowed the foundation of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which evolved from the Janjaweed militia. RSF is a paramilitary force and commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. After that, RSF was merged with the border intelligence militia and placed under Sudan’s National Intelligence and Security Service since 2007. In 2013, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo was entrusted with commanding this force again. In 2008 in Darfur, apart from RSF was the Sudanese armed forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who later became the inspector general of the armed forces – the third highest position in the SAF.
Since Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan are both senior military officers and play a fundamental role in settling the conflict in Darfur, they have maintained a close relationship for a long time. These two generals were the ones who colluded with each other to overthrow President Omar al-Bashir in April 2019. After the collapse of Omar al-Bashir’s administration, the Transitional Military Council (TMC) was established to run the country. Abdel Fattahal-Burhan was appointed as chairman of the Council while Mahamed Hamdan Dagalo was the vice chairman. The removal of President Omar al-Bashir was welcomed by many nations around the world as well as by Sudanese people, who aspired to witness a new democracy in their country.
Nevertheless, things did not happen as expected. After coming to power, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan did not realise the plan to build a democratically elected government. The TMC negotiated and signed the Constitutional Declaration with Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) in August 2019 only when the protests launched by FFC spread and international pressure became increasingly popular. This declaration is based on a power-sharing arrangement and aims to establish a hybrid leadership council with both military and civil representatives. The council is responsible for supervising the foundation of a civil government and parliament and running the country in the three-year transitional period. Mr Abdalla Hamdok, an economist and former United Nations official, was elected as Prime Minister. However, this did not last long. In October 2021, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan staged a military coup to oust Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and seize power. This is the seed of the on-going conflict.
On the surface, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan cooperated with each other to uphold power for the military, create favourable conditions for Sudan’s elections in late 2023, and restore the civil government. In fact, the rift between Dagalo and al-Burhan increasingly deepened when they scrambled for dominance in the preparation and sharing of position after election. The conflict broke out when they were trying to negotiate about the establishment of a transitional government. According to international analysts, there are some causes of the conflict. While al-Burhan wanted to merge RSF into SAF within two years, Dagalo wished this process would last 10 years because he did not want to transfer the command of the powerful RSF. It is theoretically possible for RSF to merge into SAF to form a united military and carry out a modernisation plan. Localities in Sudan, however, are not a united bloc but a “stage” of many autonomous armed groups. Each group is determined to have the lion’s share and a safe position. Additionally, TMC’s huge amount of money from gold export and tens of thousands of battle-hardened fighters under his command, Dagalo felt uncomfortable about his position as deputy. Thus, he nurtured an ambition to become the supreme commander. The on-going conflict can be interpreted as the last straw that breaks the camel’s back.
Balance of power
The current context is not similar to what Sudan experienced in the past. If the previous civil wars in Darfur, Blue Nile or South Kordofan are staged by the government or paramilitary groups to suppress armed revolts, the on-going conflict is between two large-scale armies commanded by two military generals, namely Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. This makes the situation much more complex. According to statistics, SAF, under the command of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan possesses a considerable military strength. SAF is a regular army with 110,000 soldiers. Officers of the SAF are trained well. SAF’s central of gravity also comes from the network of companies, banks, telecommunication group, and military businesses operating in weapon development, construction, and transportation. The military interest group and enterprises are regarded as the underworld in Sudan. Moreover, al-Burhan also has ties with officials of President Omar la-Bashir’s administration, who consider al-Burhan the best choice for restoring their power. This explains the reason why many prisoners in the former regime were released one week prior to the conflict. The prisoners publicly support al-Burhan.
The RSF’s strength should not be underestimated when it has 100,000 troops commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. RSF also keeps control of gold mines in Darfur. All soldiers of the RSF are battle-hardened, experienced, and disciplined. General Dagalo is also on good terms with heads of localities and rebel leaders. He has established diplomatic relation with some regional countries when he sent troops of the RSF to the wars in Yemen and UAE. General Dagalo maintains a close ties with General Khalifa Hafta, head of the Libyan National Army. When Omar al-Bashir’s administration collapsed, Dagalo took advantage of the transitional period in Khartoum to expand his business. When al-Burhan has tried to flex his muscle recently, Dagalo seeks more allies from civil political parties. He argues that he is the only one who can prevent the return of a President Omar al-Bashir-styled regime in Sudan.
According to international military analysts, despite SAF’s total supremacy over RSF, the latter has expanded its operations throughout Khartoum capital and adjacent cities. Thus, no faction can achieve a swift victory if conflict takes place in a massive scale.
Risks and consequences
Civil wars in Sudan used to occur in a similar fashion in history. First fighting broke out among rivalries, then factions adopted hard positions with few chances of compromise. Therefore, an immediate ceasefire in Sudan will be extremely difficult now. When fighting continues, armed groups will run out of resources. They will have to recruit soldiers and seek for outside assistance. This will make the war spread and have potential consequences on the region. Currently, the conflict between SAF and RSF has no sign of de-escalation. Despite diplomatic efforts of the international community, the two sides do not plan to stop fighting. Many scenarios have been constructed. The more likely scenario is that violence will escalate into a new civil war. If this happens, the consequences will be very heavy because Sudan is still struggling with the aftermath of the conflict in Darfur and the economic crisis after the departure of President Omar al-Bashir.
According to Alan Boswell, an expert from the International Crisis Group, given its proximity to Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, Eritrea, and South Sudan, which are bogged down in internal conflicts as a result of various uprisings along the borders, what is happening in Sudan will quickly spread and have a direct influence on these countries, especially Chad and South Sudan. Chad has had 400,000 Sudanese refugees from the previous conflict. It has also received 20,000 more refugees since April 15, 2023. A new conflict is likely to cross Chad’s borders and directly affect areas where the refugees are living. As for South Sudan, the conflict will have a bad influence on the transport of goods and logistics from its oil fields to Sudanese ports. Approximately 800,000 South Sudanese living in Sudan are likely to be affected by the conflict. If these people return to their home country, they will place a burden on South Sudanese Government.
International analysts argue that if fighting lasts for a long time, an intervention is undeniable. Currently, the United States, Russia, Egypt, UAE, etc., all have priority partners in this country. General Burhan is backed by Egypt while Qatar and Turkey keep close ties with Islamist officials under the former President Omar al-Bashir’s regime. UAE and Russia support General Dagalo while the United State with the role as a mediator is likely to back General Burhan. Consequently, the more parties become involved in the conflict, the more complex the negotiation process is. The negotiation process may last for a long time, thus driving Sudan into extreme difficulty and exhaustion of resources.
According to international experts, the on-going conflict in Sudan is most probably a portent of a new civil war. If measures to de-escalate the conflict are not found, it is likely to become a multi-level game for regional and international player to pursue their own interests. Weapon systems and money will be mobilised and provided for warring factions. Foreign militaries or proxy forces will be part of the war. This will be an unexpected scenario for the region and the world.
LAM PHUONG