The world political and military picture in 2023 is still mixed with light and dark colours, in which, strategic competition between major countries is still fierce, conflicts in regions continue to increase in intensity, scope and nature, etc. However, there are also many signs that the US and China are both showing efforts to control disagreements.

Russia strives to build a multipolar world order

Speaking at the Eastern Partnership Forum (September 2023), President Vladimir Putin affirmed that Russia’s consistent policy is to join with other countries to build a multipolar world order; in which, all countries, regardless of their political regime, socio-economic model, large or small, strong or weak military potential, cooperate for mutual benefit based on the United Nations Charter and international law, not the “rules” imposed by the US. According to Moscow, the US’ throughout plan is to force Russia to suffer a strategic defeat, causing the Russian Federation to disintegrate, which means removing the biggest obstacle to the US’ ambition to maintain its leadership role in the unipolar world order. Therefore, not only providing effective support for Ukraine, the US and many Western countries have imposed more than 14 thousand sanctions against Russia with the calculation that the Russian economy will collapse. However, that did not happen, because the majority of non-Western countries did not follow the US to embargo Russia. These includes countries that are US allies, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Turkey. In July 2023, Moscow successfully hosted the second Russia-Africa Summit, gathering delegations from 49 countries, including 17 heads of state and many senior officials of African countries. This is said to be the result of tireless diplomatic efforts to affirm Russia’s position in the international arena.

With that position, Russia is still at the forefront of the struggle to build a multipolar world order, considering it an inevitable and irreversible trend with the suggested models of the Group of Emerging Economies (BRICS) and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Currently, BRICS has attracted over 40 countries expressing their desire to join, of which 23 countries have officially applied. The 2023 BRICS Summit marks a breakthrough development with the decision to admit 6 new members: Egypt, Argentina, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the (UAE). Established in 2001 under the initiative of China and Russia, SCO is an Asia-Europe cooperation organisation, focusing on many fields: economics, politics and security. At the July 2023 Summit, the SCO admitted Iran; Afghanistan, Belarus and Mongolia participated as observers, while Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Turkey and Sri Lanka as dialogue partners. Thus, up to now SCO has 09 official members, namely China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan and Iran, accounting for 40% of the world’s population, 60% of the total area of the world. Asia and Europe are increasingly promoting their role in promoting cooperation between member countries, preserving regional security and stability. In the context that the US is trying to maintain a world order dominated by the West, SCO is striving to build an effective and efficient multilateral mechanism that can transform from a regional organisation into a structure of global influence.

The US strives to maintain the unipolar world order

Not accepting the reality of the clearly emerging multipolar world order, in 2023, the US is trying to save the “collapse” of the unipolar world order led by Washington. Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly Forum in September 2023, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the United States is building alliances to strengthen democracy, promote human rights and enhance economic development. In that direction, the US is trying to strengthen and expand NATO, bankrupting the EU’s policy of strategic autonomy, forcing Brussels to continue to rely entirely on Washington. At the same time, efforts are being made to establish a worldwide “alliance of democratic nations” to fight what the US considers the “authoritarian nations” led by Russia, China and Iran. On 28 March 2023, the US-chaired Democracy Forum was held with the participation of leaders of 121 countries. However, the agenda of this Democratic Forum only aims to isolate Russia - the country that is leading the struggle to build a multipolar world order.

NATO continues to expand from Europe to Asia

The 2023 NATO Summit is the most important since the end of the Cold War due to the participation of Finland - the 31st member. This is the first direct consequence of the Russia - Ukraine military conflict to the European security structure, because Finland had maintained a neutral policy for decades after World War II. One of the most important topics of the 2023 NATO Summit is to resolve the divide over Ukraine’s membership and the admission of Sweden. With Sweden admitted as the 32nd member of NATO, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara no longer opposes Stockholm and will recommend that the Turkish Parliament soon approve Sweden’s application to join NATO. In addition, NATO also agreed on a strong defence plan unprecedented since the Cold War with the policy of admitting Ukraine – which is always considers the “red line” by Russia. At this Summit, the group of industrialised countries (G7), including the US, Germany, Japan, France, Canada, Italy and the UK, proposed a multilateral initiative to provide modern weapons and equipment for Ukraine and strengthen relations with partners in the Indo-Pacific region, including: Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand. The participation of the leaders of these countries in the NATO Summit is a clear sign of the alliance’s “Advancing East” policy. Accordingly, the US advocates opening a NATO liaison office in Tokyo and strengthening the US-Japan-Korea alliance. According to Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, the leaders of the US, Japan and South Korea holding the first Summit in 2023 opens “a new page of history” in the relationship between Japan and its allies.

The Middle East heats up because of the Israel-Hamas conflict

The surprise attack by Hamas forces on Israel on 7 October 2023 and Israel’s drastic response not only made Israeli-Palestinian relations unprecedentedly complicated, but also changed the entire political and military situation in the Middle East. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal is to “respond to the attack of Hamas” to implement the long-term strategy of building a large State of Greater Israel, causing the US policy of de-escalation in the region to fall into a deadlock, pushing the governments of Arab countries and Iran into a difficult situation. Over the past three years, US President Joe Biden’s administration has limited its intervention in the Middle East region to focus on realising the Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China’s influence through the corridor. The eastern corridor connects India with the Gulf countries and the Northern corridor connects the Gulf countries with Europe through Jordan and Israel.

To realise this plan, the US must reduce the tension in the Middle East by promoting the normalisation of relation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, while minimising the conflict with Iran. However, the attack by Hamas has “frozen” the process of normalising relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia; preventing the signing of a regional security agreement, forcing the US to reverse its policy of reducing military presence after ending the war against the terrorist organisation called the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS). Currently, in an effort to deter all sides to prevent the escalation of regional conflicts, the Pentagon deploys two aircraft carriers with more than 100 fighter aircraft, many cruisers, destroyers and submarines equipped with Tomahawk missiles to the Middle East. Before the Israel-Hamas conflict broke out, the US wanted to reduce tensions with Iran with a prisoner exchange agreement and release $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets, with the expectation of restraining Iran-backed forces. Conflicts in Syria and Iraq launched attacks against US forces. However, in the context of the escalating Israel-Hamas conflict, pro-Iranian armed groups in Syria and Iraq conducted many attacks against US military bases, potentially drawing the US into another regional conflicts in the Middle East. This situation created an opportunity for Russia and China to exert influence as they called on Israel and Hamas to immediately cease fire and hold the United States responsible for the escalating conflict that has caused massive civilian casualties. In general, the US is facing certain disadvantages in the Middle East battlefield and is forced to limit its aid to Ukraine, so it is difficult to control the situation in the Indo-Pacific region.

The US and China are trying to control disagreements

The US National Security Strategy published in 2022 identifies China as the most serious, comprehensive and long-term challenge. To resolve this, in 2023, the US increased its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region, improved capacity and coordinated with allies and partners, and strengthened combat synergy. Accordingly, the US restored the Visiting Forces Agreement with the Philippines, regularly maintains from 02 to 04 aircraft carrier groups, mobilises many modern military vehicles such as F-22 fighter jets, B-1B strategic bombers, etc. to participate in joint exercises with allies and partners in the region. The number of US bilateral and multilateral exercises in the Indo-Pacific region is likely to increase in 2023.

However, the US still advocates controlling disagreements with China while facing a comprehensive confrontation with Russia in Ukraine and does not let China develop its unlimited strategic partnership with Russia into an alliance. On the other hand, China also recognises that its current development is also thanks to cooperation with the US since the reform and opening up in 1979. Therefore, in 2023, the US and China have made many moves to control disagreements. Typically, on 15 November 2023, the two sides held a summit on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit Week 2023. This is the first face-to-face meeting between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping in about a year, in the context of tensions in US-China relations continuing to escalate. Speaking at the meeting, President Joe Biden emphasised that the US and China need to responsibly manage the competition between the two countries, not letting the competition turn into conflict. In response, Chinese President Xi Jinping called the US-China relationship the most important bilateral relationship in the world, saying that the two countries turning their backs on each other is not an option and it would be unrealistic for one side to seek to reshape the other side.

Senior Colonel LE THE MAU