On November 24, 2013, the P5+1 (Britain, France, U.S., Russia, China and Germany) and Iran reached an interim agreement on the Tehran’s controversial nuclear program. This is an important breakthrough unfolding new prospects in the process of negotiation between the parties. However, it is still a long way full of obstacles and challenges ahead to reach a final agreement between the West and Iran.

1. Iran - the great chessboard of the U.S., Russia and China

Located in Southwest Asia - Near East, with one of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, and blocking the Hormuz Strait where about 40% of the world’s trading oil volume and 80 % of the exporting oil from the Persian Gulf and Caspian countries bypass, Iran lies in the strategically and geopolitically critical area of the Southwest Asia, the Middle East and the world. Moreover, Iran is the most convenient gateway to the Central Asia-Caucasia region – the "heart" of the Europe - Asian continent – and it is also the threshold most vulnerable to the Russian national security and to the whole post-Soviet space. Therefore, ever since, Iran has become the focus of attention of the major powers of which the U.S., Russia and China are making efforts to entice it towards them. Iran becomes a large chessboard with three "players"; the U.S. on one side and on the other side are Russia and China. For the U.S., if winning the Iran’s alliance, it will be able to control the passage entering the Central Asia – Caucasia and use it as a springboard to interfere into Russia and China’s internal affairs.

Realizing that plot, Russia and China are stepping up their cooperation and always closely shoulder together in many areas to deal with the U.S. However, there between Russia and China also exists conflicts of interest in Central Asia – Caucasia, so alongside with cooperation promotion, the two countries also silently restraint one another and compete for influence in this strategic region. Analysts noted that in this “chess game", the U.S. seems to take the "white pawns", while Russia’s posture is to passively encounter (mainly to the U.S.), and China takes a different passage - using “the pawn” of economy to dominate Central Asia - Caucasia and gradually sneaks in a "polite" manner. Thus, the struggle for dominance and influence on Central Asia - Caucasia is making Tehran very much attractive to the three leading powers and force them to bog down to a war of nerve and power, considering every "move" in order to take the initiative when the great chess game of Iran steps into the overall stage.

2. The U.S. has both involved, undermined, soothed and enticed Iran

According to observers, the purpose of U.S. and the West’s economic sanctions against Iran is to weaken the Iran’s economy and result in a collapse, which would cause severe consequences to the Tehran government on two aspects. First, to slow down the development process of uranium enrichment, thus prolonging the time for Iran to be able to possess nuclear weapons. Second, to cause the discontent among the Iranian people and social disorder, thus triggering off protests, riots and protest to overthrow the Iran incumbent administration (like version of "Arab Spring”); or at least to force this country to adjust its foreign policy towards the U.S. and the West. However, the U.S. and the West’s wish was not realized, even Washington has fallen into a dilemma. In particular, the economic sanctions on Iran not only didn’t conquer Tehran government system of Iran, but also caused a heavier hatred of the Iranian people to the U.S. For Iran, it is its determination to pursue the nuclear development program that results in more intensive sanctions from the U.S. and the West, causing major damage to its economy. After a long time of consideration, pondering "the costs and benefits" both Washington and Tehran decided to advance to an interim agreement (On November 24, 2013) on the Iran's controversial nuclear program to step into a new brighter stage.

3. Prospects of realization of the Iran’s nuclear deal

According to the basic content of the interim agreement (On November 24, 2013), Iran would halt uranium enrichment above 5%; allow the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect all of its suspicious nuclear facilities. In return, the U.S. and the Western would not impose new sanctions; simultaneously; gradually remove the imposed sanctions while Iran reserves its right to enriching uranium for peaceful purposes. This is an important breakthrough in negotiations over Tehran’s suspected nuclear program after more than 10 years of deadlock.

According to international analysts, though there has been still a lack of trust between the U.S. and Iran, in terms of strategic interests (both short and long term) the two sides need to cooperate. For Iran, its nuclear program is only one out of many vital issues of the country. The importance is that, Tehran needs to quickly enhance its synergetic strength to become a regional power. Iran itself also understands that, if it becomes stronger, the U.S., Russia, China, India, EU and Japan want to cooperate with Tehran, then they could enhance their credibility in the region. So, it is more likely Iran would accept the uranium enrichment of below 5% and allow IAEA to inspect all nuclear facilities in the country. On the other hand, the U.S. also wants to quickly normalize relations and advances to a close cooperation with Iran in order to gradually advance into Central Asia - Caucasia and reach to China’s Tibet and Xinjiang areas to realize its strategic goals. If the foresaid argument is  valid, then the possibility to achieve a final agreement between the P5+1 and Iran on the Tehran’s nuclear program will be promising, but also undergo no less obstacles and challenges. International opinions are expecting best efforts of the relevant parties in order to turn the risk of conflict into the opportunity to bring peace, security and prosperity for the region and the world.

Major General, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Le Van Cuong

Institute for Security Science and Strategy, Ministry of Public Security