Since he took office as the 46th President of the United States, Joe Biden has been expected to revive the Iran Nuclear Deal. However, after the 8th round of negotiations in Vienna (Austria), both America and Iran were unable to overcome differences to work towards the restoration of this Deal. Apparently, the future of this Deal is still a big problem.
Holding the Vice Presidency of the United States during President Barack Obama’s two terms of office and considering the Nuclear Deal signed by the P5+1 and Iran in 2015 as a remarkable diplomatic legacy, President Joe Biden understandably has views similar to former President Barack Obama. Thus, although he rarely makes commitments to the U.S. foreign policy a part from his general promises to restore America’s prestige and position and refuel Washington’s alliances which were undermined under the Presidency of Donald Trump, President Joe Biden rather clearly expresses his views on Iran. Head of the United States pledges to reverse his predecessor’s policy and bring the country back to the historic nuclear deal. Nobody doubts goodwill and determination of the US President towards one of the most complicated and important diplomatic issues of America. That not only derives from the inheritance of what he pursued as the Vice President of the United States, but is also based on a fact that controlling Iran’s nuclear programme and maintaining Washington’s relations with this Islamic Republic are aimed at the U.S. long-term and strategic benefits in the Middle East.
Return to the Iran Nuclear Deal – Washington’s predicament
Many decades ago, Iran cherished its nuclear dreams which were believed to serve civil purposes. In spite of the fact that Iran had ratified the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1970, only 4 years later, this country established its own Atomic Energy Organisation and announced its plans to construct nuclear reactors. The Islamic Revolution of 1979 marked a political turning point in Iran; however, generations of leaders of this country, moderates or hardliners, have devoted their effort to developing nuclear programmes. In order to alleviate the international community’s concern over its “mysterious” nuclear programme, in 2004, Iran agreed to put a halt to its uranium enrichment to negotiate with the U.S. and the Europe. Nevertheless, rounds of talks did not end with specific commitments as Washington did not allow Tehran to do anything relevant to atomic issues. Only when the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed could concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions ease. Terms of the JCPOA placed Iran under international organisations’ close supervision, with view to preventing this country from possessing nuclear weapons; in return, Iran would have a chance for its economic development due to the loosening of sanctions from Washington. That “win-win” agreement was praised for opening up a “new era” for the U.S. and Iran; besides, the stability of the relations between the two countries placed under the umbrella of JCPOA allowed Washington to find out mechanisms to deal with Iranian issues – a decades-long profile.
Being regarded as the big brother of the Shiite branch of Islam, together with its considerable military potential, Iran has a significant influence upon regional countries, ranging from Lebanon and Yemen to Syria. Therefore, harmonious relations with Tehran will enable Washington to manage “hot spots” in the Middle East – a complex region of paramount importance to America. President Joe Biden also considers America’s return to the Iran Nuclear Deal as part of his policy for this region and a “master key” to a series of troubles. In his article on a newspaper, head of the White House wrote that the U.S. should quickly change its approach as the key point is that Iran is getting closer to the goal of producing an atomic bomb than at Donald Trump’s inauguration. In fact, Biden’s concerns were totally well founded as former President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA in 2018; in spite of being part of the agreement, Iran took retaliatory actions against the US re-imposition of sanctions by speeding up and expanding its nuclear programme. Tehran has devoted effort to developing advanced centrifuges to enrich uranium at a rate higher than 3.67% - the permitted rate in the JCPOA, its reserve of enriched uranium is now 11 times higher than the ceiling of 300 kg. According to experts around the world, Iran’s duration for accumulating enough high-level enriched uranium to make an atomic bomb has reduced from 1 year (in case the JCPOA is fully implemented) to about 1 month. More seriously, Tehran is capable of pushing the enrichment of uranium from 60% purity at present up to 90% purity – weapons grade.
On a regional scale, Iran proves its role and powerful influence when it is pushed aside and becomes the target of hostility. With an elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other proxy forces in the region, Iran is thought to be behind a large number of attacks against the U.S. force in Iraq, oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, and a number of oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. It could be said that President Joe Biden was completely correct when regarding the restoration of the Iran Nuclear Deal as a priority in his tenure due to the Middle East’s crucial role in Washington’s global strategy. American return to the JCPOA is described as the return to the U.S. traditional policies which were discontinued under the Presidency of Donald Trump; it also proves that the Middle East will hardly be stabilised without the alleviation of strains on Iran.
However, after the previous Administration’s shocking behaviours towards the JCPOA, President Joe Biden will not easily realise his intentions. Actually, Donald Trump’s decision reveals a truth that there are different perspectives on this issue inside the United States. Democrats in the U.S. consider the JCPOA as a diplomatic miracle of the Obama Administration. Meanwhile, many Republicans regard the agreement as a failure of the United States to the Islamic country; according to them, the JCPOA is no comprehensive agreement like its name suggests; instead of completely eradicating Iran’s nuclear programme, it just prevents Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Besides, the JCPOA does not mention Iran’s increasingly large and modern missile arsenal which will be capable of launching one or many nuclear warheads in the future if restraints between Tehran and major powers are broken down. Therefore, many people think that Iran’s missile arsenal must be part of the future version of the Nuclear Deal between Tehran and Washington. That proposal is definitely a burden to the Biden Administration as it is not easy at all to persuade Iran to re-comply with this country’s commitments in the JCPOA after Donald Trump’s decision which was seen as an act of betrayal by Tehran. The key point is that Iran’s confidence in a promise from Washington is now decreased to the lowest level of ever.
A tough journey
In fact, immediately after the moderate government of former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani joyfully expressed hope that the JCPOA would open up a new era for the Islamic country, supreme leader of Iran Ali Khamenei doubted the sincerity of America, emphasising that the U.S. will forever take an attitude of hostility towards his country. He also made forecasts about the collapse of the Deal right after the signing, and those “warnings” by the supreme leader of Iran were totally correct. “Painful” lessons after an “unfinished transaction” with Washington forced Tehran to take more cautious steps. In August 2021, Ebrahim Raisi took office as the President of Iran. Unlike his predecessor who had moderate political views and considered economic opportunities within the framework of the JCPOA as a political victory, incumbent Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is a hardliner and shows a deeply pessimistic attitude towards the U.S. and the West. More specifically, all results of 6 rounds of negotiations in the first half of 2021 between American and Iranian officials in a bid to save the Iran Nuclear Deal became meaningless and all dialogues were postponed since Ebrahim Raisi became President of Iran (August 5th, 2021). However, that tough situation became more positive when President Ebrahim Raisi decided to return to the negotiating table in November 2021 with new proposals. Accordingly, Tehran required Washington to make a written commitment not to validating the Nuclear Deal like former President Donald Trump ever did, no matter who would rule the United States. As for Iran, that idea is not absurd. However, for the U.S., the Nuclear Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is just an executive agreement, it is not a treaty, and certainly it could be adjusted by any President of the United States. Thus, such a proposal is quite clear to Tehran, but “impossible” for the Biden Administration.
Furthermore, Iran remains steadfastness in its standpoint that all sanctions against economic activities must be lifted prior to any move towards the Nuclear Deal. As the economy of Iran is isolated and strangled by sanctions, nuclear achievements will help Iran to leverage its position during negotiations with major powers and safeguard its regime. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden believes that Tehran’s fulfilment of commitments in the JCPOA is a precondition for Washington’s return to negotiations about a new nuclear deal. Certainly, doing so will also enable the Biden Administration to deflect criticisms of its softening policies towards Tehran.
On February 5th, 2022, President Joe Biden restored a sanctions waiver to Iran, which is a positive signal to the JCPOA. That decision will allow companies from Russia, China, and the Europe to cooperate with Iran on civil nuclear projects. That move is believed to give an incentive to future negotiations in Vienna in a bid to save the JCPOA. However, it is a really tough journey that requires a lot of efforts from the two sides as mutual trust has been seriously undermined.
VAN KHANH