In 2022, the world continues to witness major regional and global multipolar, multi-centred changes with rapid, complicated and unpredictable developments. Notably, strategic competition between major powers, local wars, armed conflicts, etc. are carried out in many places under various forms with higher complexity and intensity. These factors have caused significant impacts, creating major political and military shift in the world and attracted great attention from the international community.
The failure of US-Russia and NATO-Russia negotiations on security guarantee
From January 10 to 12, 2022, at the proposal of Russia, the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) conducted negotiations on a draft of the US-Russia and NATO-Russia security guarantee treaty to conclude legally-binding agreements to build a fair, comprehensive and stable security structure in Europe. Russia’s requirements for security guarantee include a ban on Ukraine entering NATO and a limit to the deployment of offensive weapons to NATO's eastern flank. However, after 3 days of negotiation, the U.S and NATO rejected all of Russia’s demands and declared that, every country has the right to choose their alliance and NATO expansion was and still is the foundation of the spread of free and democratic ideals in Europe. According to Moscow, the admission of Ukraine into NATO aims to convert this country into a military base against Russia. By early 2022, although Ukraine had not joined NATO, the U.S had already set up 10 military bases and been building infrastructure to deploy hypersonic weapons in this country. Therefore, Russia considers that the admission of Ukraine into NATO is a “ red line” that must not be crossed. President Putin stated that, if the U.S continues to seek a NATO membership for Ukraine, Russia will respond with military and military technology measures. In his speech at Munich Security Conference 2022, Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister urged Western countries to respect Russia’s security concerns. According to him, Ukraine should be a bridge connecting the East and the West, not a frontline between two sides, and the only way out is both sides should strictly implement the Minsk Agreements approved by the United Nations Security Council. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky officially cancelled the Minsk Agreements, saying it “undermines Ukraine”.
Ukraine – the centre of the war between the two world orders
After Russian President Putin launched the special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, U.S President Biden said that the conflict in Ukraine will be a historic turning point that leads to a “new world order”. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine is an epochal battle that gives birth to a new world order. While both men spoke of a “new world order”, they implied two fundamentally different concepts. By pushing Russia to the point of no turning back, forcing it to launch the special military operation in Ukraine, the U.S attempts to accuse Russia of aggression and urges the international community to isolate and sanction Russia, pushing Russian into a full-blown crisis and defeat. By doing so, the U.S will be able to remove the most significant obstacle to its ambition to maintain the unipolar world order that is in danger of collapse. At Munich Security Conference 2007, Russian President Putin stated that Russia does not accept a unipolar world order manipulated by the U.S and will work with other countries to build a new multipolar world order. Since then, the U.S has always believed Russia to be a “country that sabotages the world order” and tried to destroy, even seeking to “permanently eradicate” Russia from the world map.
Since 2014, after Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula, the U.S and the West have imposed nearly 10,000 sanctions on Russia but unable to destroy Russian economy, pushing it into a socio-economic crisis. Speaking at Eastern Economic Forum 2022, President Putin stated: “The sanction war by the U.S and its allies against Russia has been a complete failure”. According to Putin, the era of unipolar world order must come to an end, Russia, China and many other countries will strive to build a multipolar world order, in which all countries, big or small, strong or weak, rich or poor and regardless of their political regime will be equally respected.
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation on the verge of a new historic opportunity
The 22nd Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit was held in Samarkand (Uzbekistan) on September 15, 2022, a time when the world was witnessing major political shifts. Founded in 1996 with the original name of Shanghai Group including 05 members (Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan), in 2001, after the admission of Uzbekistan, the group was renamed as SCO, in 2015, India and Pakistan became its latest members. At SCO Summit 2022, Iran became the first Middle East country signed a memorandum of understanding to fulfil obligations for full membership of the group. The Summit also kicked off the process of admitting Belarus as a full member, granted and prepared to grant dialogue partner status to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Maldives, Myanmar, United Arab Emirates (UAE); among which, many countries are the US’s allies. To date, SCO is one of the largest regional organisation in the world, accounting for 1/3 of global GDP, 40% of world population and nearly 2/3 of the area of the Eurasian continent. According to Russian President Putin, SCO is the model of a multipolar based on the UN Charter which connects countries with different socio-political institutions for the common goal of mutually beneficial cooperation and resolving global threats and challenges that no single country can deal with.
BRICS towards a new era
On June 23, 2022, the 14th Summit of the BRICS, an organisation of emerging economic powers, took place with the theme of “Foster High-quality BRICS Partnership, Usher in a New Era for Global Development”. The BRICS Summit reaffirmed the position of member states to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries; emphasised the commitment to peaceful resolution for differences and disputes; strongly committed to nuclear disarmament; supported the building of Afghanistan to be a country of peace, security, stability, independence with territorial integrity and national unity, preventing it from becoming a base of a foreign country to threaten or attack other countries or a safe haven for terrorist groups; supported negotiations to restore P5+1 Agreement with Iran; supported bilateral and multilateral negotiations to resolve all issues related to the Korean Peninsula; continued to advocate for a comprehensive reform of the UN, including the UN Security Council, to increase the presence of developing countries in the organisation; called for the preservation and enhancement of the arms control system. According to many experts, the world is entering a new era with a new world order, in which the BRICS is leading the process. While the economies of the leading industrialised countries (G-7) are facing the risk of recession, it is likely that the BRICS’s economies will soon surpass them.
NATO adopts a new strategic concept with a vision to 2030
In June 2022, NATO Summit introduced a new strategic concept of the alliance with a vision to 2030. The new concept identifies the threats against NATO; in which Russia is the most direct and serious threat, and China is a systemic challenge to the entire Western world. The new strategy also introduces measures to enhance the group’s defence and deterrence capability. Accordingly, NATO will increase its combat readiness force from 40,000 troops to over 300,000; strive to meet or surpass the goal of 2% of GDP for defence spending by 2024. Regarding the “Open Door” policy, NATO commits to continue to send aid to Ukraine, admitting new members, and officially accepted the membership applications of Sweden and Finland. For the first time, NATO invited partners such as Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan to attend the Summit, marking a new expansion phase of this alliance to the Asia – Pacific region.
The U.S approves new national security strategy
On October 12, 2022, the White House introduced the National Security Strategy for President Joe Biden’s first term with the overarching goal of enhancing the comprehensive strength of the U.S to maintain its leadership in a “rule-based world order” governed by Washington. Explaining this goal, President Biden emphasised: “A rule-based order will remain the foundation of world peace; in which, the U.S will further invest in competitiveness to motivate countries to pursuit the American Dream and fight for it from around the world”. Many experts assess that the U.S’s explanation of a rule-based world order is rather ambiguous and imposing. For example, after the end of the Cold War, the U.S blatantly waged a war of intervention in Yugoslavia (1999) under the excuse of “protecting human rights”, Iraq (2003) for “possessing chemical weapons”, Libya (2011) under the guise of “establishing a no-fly zone”. Today, the U.S is still maintaining over 800 military bases around the world. Besides, the U.S has unilaterally withdrawn from many treaties and agreements that Washington signed, such as: Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) with the Soviet Union and later Russia as the successor state, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty (INF), Treaty on Open Skies; Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) of P5+1 Group with Iran. The U.S has also imposed sanctions against Russia, Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Venezuela, causing erosion for the World Trade Organisation fundamental principles. Therefore, many politicians in the world have expressed the view that the world should abandon the so-called “rule-based order” initiated by the U.S, because that order is not based on the UN Charter but solely based on the rules imposed by Washington.
In 2022, the world witnessed many major military and political shifts. In which, the most significant development was the Russia – Ukraine conflict which turned into a comprehensive war by the collective West led by the US in all the fields of politics, diplomacy, economy, culture, and military against Russia. According to Western political analysts and politicians, this war has become a powerful drive pushing the world towards a multipolar order, and according to Russian President Putin, the next decade will be the decade that marks the formation of the multipolar world order. This can be a painful and unstable process that potentially leads to further conflicts, but it is inevitable for a world of peace, stability and cooperation.
Senior Colonel LE THE MAU