With its potentials and advantages in many fields, and quickly developing economy, etc., Africa is considered the important area in the global balance of power. As a result, there has been fierce competition of influence among powerful countries in this region in the 21st century. This has been expressed in the strategic adjustment by these countries in recent years for this important geo-political and geo-strategic region.
21st century – the century of “vigorously changing” Africa
Over the last few decades, with its suitable policies on economic renovation, Africa has made positive changes and gained many important achievements in socio-economic development and also the recognition and prestige in the international arena. According to the UN’s statistics, since 2000, though the international economy was fluctuated, even on the verge of recession, Africa has still gained a high economic growth (with the average of 4.6%/year), ranking the 2nd in the world, just behind the Asia Pacific region, where there are 25 countries enjoying the growth rates of between 5% and 7.7%. Especially, countries like South Sudan, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Djibouti are said to have the fast economic growth rates in the world. Although the Covid-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine have seriously affected the global economy, it is estimated that Africa’s economy will still enjoy the growth rate of 3.8%/year. Besides, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), since coming into effect (01/01/2021), has contributed to the position improvement of the “dark continent”. With the AfCFTA, Africa has become a huge domestic trading market with over 1.3 billion of population and the GDP of over USD 3.000. It is estimated that AfCFTA will increase the trading values among African countries from 15% to 25% (equal to USD 50 billion to USD 80 billion) in 2040. It also offers great chances, boosts the diversity of industries and develops the value chain of the region, contributing to the transformation of economic structure and the trading improvement in the whole continent.
Presently, Africa is a “highlight” to attract the foreign direct investment (FDI), especially from the first-class economies, huge economic and financial centres in the region and the world. Since 2008, there has been an increase in the total capitals and the FDI invested in Africa, focusing on fields which Africa has advantages such as production and service, oil and gas exploitation, precious natural resources for the development of microelectronics, information technology, biology, genetics, etc. Besides, policies on enhancing the international integrity and changing the legal frames have also created favourable conditions for African countries to implement their external strategies, at the same time, created the “lever” to encourage and attract many developed countries and international organisations to invest more in the continent.
With its geo-strategic advantages and abundant potentials which have been effectively exploited, Africa has been changing its face from a deserted and underdeveloped continent to a vigorously developing region which affirms an important position and role in the foreign policies of major powers. Many specialists estimates that the 21st century will be the century of “vigorously changing” Africa and this continent will play in important role in the global power balance and be the place of fierce competition of influence among powerful countries.
The U.S. determines to regain the “throne” in Africa
Since the end of the Cold War, in its global strategies, generations of U.S. presidents have applied specific strategies in Africa such as “The African Growth and Opportunity Act” by Bill Clinton; “the creation of a new Unified Combatant Command for the African continent” by George Bush, and “Strategies on promoting prosperity, security and stability for Africa” by Donald Trump. However, these strategies are not enough to create strong and sustainable belief and vigorous effect on African countries.
With its determination to regain the monotheistic position in Africa, and like his predecessors, President Joe Biden has launched the “Strategy on the prosperous Africa” with the aim of rebuilding the “dark continent” to an open and democratic society; enhancing the economic recovery and development after the pandemic; preserving the nature, adjusting to the climate change and green-energy transformation, etc. In order to realise this aim, Washington has implemented many foreign activities towards Africa, including the long visit to several African countries in August 2022 by the Secretary of State Antony Blinken or the U.S.-Africa Summit from 13 to 15/12/2022 in Washington with the presence of over 50 leaders of African countries. Through these foreign activities, the White House has offered hundreds of billions of USD of aids to ensure food security, prevent climate change, develop infrastructure, reform the eco-financial management system, improve healthcare, renovate the system of education, justice, strengthen the democracy, and build the open society according to the Western standards in Africa. President Joe Biden’s government has also promised to heighten Africa’s roles in international forums; encourage this continent to join the Group of Twenty (G20); together with EU allies support the AfCFTA so that Africa can become the greatest common market in the world. Besides, Washington would take full advantage of the regulations of civilian and military defence, widen the defence cooperation with like-minded strategic partners in order to maintain peace and stability in Africa.
According to international researchers, though President Joe Biden’s government has affirmed the special engagement and drastic and sustainable commitment to Africa, the U.S’s monotheistic position in this continent has been seriously challenged by Russia and China. The manifestation is clear when the trading turnover between the U.S. and Africa in 2021 only reached USD 254 billion. As a result, the U.S’s influence on this continent is still questioned.
Africa – the first-class partner of China
In order to establish the economic corridor connecting to South Asia, Middle East, Africa and Mediterranean Sea through the Indian Ocean, China has considered Africa as an important “chain link” in the Project on “The Silk Road on the sea in the 21st century” (in the Belt and Road Initiative). Accordingly, in recent years, this country has built up ranges of infrastructures in important areas, which consist of oil pipes, roads, railways, airports, ports, etc. making a belt to connect to major economic areas in Africa. China has also given financial and technical support to African countries to develop their industries, agriculture, build the infrastructure of traffic, information technology, telecommunications (5G), exploit and process natural minerals, etc. When the Covid-19 pandemic broke out, China was the country which provided freely vaccines, medical materials with the largest quantity; increased the non-refundable aids, offered low-interest loans, extended or eradicated the debts so that African countries could recover their economies after the pandemic. Regarding defence and security fields, China has appreciated the cooperation with African countries to improve the cooperation ability to cope with traditional and non-traditional challenges, protecting the security and stability in the region.
International analysts hold that China’s position and role in Africa have been continuously enhanced because China, being different from the U.S. in its relations with this continent, has promoted the cooperation motto of “equality, practicality, effectiveness and reciprocity”; offered economic aids without any demands for “democracy”, “human rights”. This has made China more “friendly seen” in the eyes of African countries, and the African leaders have considered China a first-class trading partner in their socio-economic development. Since 2010, China has become the largest trading partner of Africa, and presently, over 50 countries become the members of “the Belt and Road Initiative”.
Africa – the traditional and friendly partner of Russia
In its foreign policies, Russia considers Africa a region of important position for the security, benefits and development. In the context of the worst relations with the U.S., NATO and Western countries, Russia has focused on developing its relations with Africa, in order to create the counterbalance and defeat the U.S’s and Western countries’ schemes to besiege, embargo and undermine Russia’s economy, politics, security and foreign affairs. The cooperation relations between Russia and Africa have been based on both the traditional friendship which had been established in the Soviet era and the friendly relations nowadays. Recently, Russian leaders have announced to provide thousands of tons of fertilizers for African countries to develop their agriculture. Conversely, African countries have actively supported Russia to struggle against the hegemonism, power politics, and opposed to the hostile policies against Russia by the U.S. and the West.
Impacts on the continent
Major powers, especially the top ones, have been considering the economy as the “key” in implementing their strategic competition of influence in Africa, which has opened to this continent opportunities to integrate into the global chain of supply, widen the market and increase the trading balances. This has also helped underdeveloped and developing countries take advantage of external resources to develop their socio-economy and reinforce their defence and security. Despite those opportunities and advantages, the influence competition among major powers will pose many dangers and challenges to African countries. They may risk economic bubbles; becoming a market of goods consumption; danger of environmental pollution; ruined cultural values; rich-poor gap; increased social conflicts, etc. Especially, when the U.S. has considered Russia and China as their top “security threats”, the strategies and solutions by all sides will raise the danger of engaging Africa into a dangerous “new cold war”.
According to international opinions, cooperation and competition among countries, regional and international integrity are an inevitable rule in the trend of globalisation, and the motivation for countries to enhance the socio-economic development, assure the national defence and security. Therefore, all countries, the powerful ones in particular, should make equal cooperation and competition, co-development, avoid turning competitions into conflicts for their own benefits and conspiracy, which could endanger the security, stability and development in Africa particularly and in the world generally.
MINH DUC - HUU TRUNG