In the context of the world’s profound changes due to ethnic, race, and religious conflicts ... the European Union has urgently implemented its Defence and Security Strategy to build a security pillar role for the region, capable of acting independently and autonomous in defence. So, how to realise that Strategy and how it affects regional security are matters of public concern.
“Strategic Compass” Plan - the expectation for a security “pillar”
In March, the European Union (EU) adopted its ambitious “Strategic Compass”, aiming to build a new security pillar for the “Old Continent” and affirming its capacity to carry out independent military and defence operations. The idea of building a common European defence, although conceived in the last years of the twentieth century, has yet to be realised due to the lack of consensus of member states. Therefore, the adoption of the “Strategic Compass” is considered an important milestone for the Union in the current period.
The basic contents of that Plan centre on four pillars: Action, investment, partnership, and security. The focus is that the EU will soon establish a military force capable of rapid response, with about 5,000 personnel, including the navy, army, and air force, equipped with a variety of modern vehicles to be capable of operating in all theatres, all types of operations, and both inside and outside the territory of the EU. This is the core force to promptly handle situations to protect the strategic interests and the security of member countries and the whole Union. Regarding the roadmap, in 2022, a rapid response force will be established, and an operational scenario will be developed. In early 2023, the force will conduct exercises and by 2025, it will be capable of handling situations in flashpoints of the region and the world. Along with that, the EU implements a flexible mechanism under the model of a “sub-union”, meaning that a group of member states is also entitled to choose their actions, but under the direction of the European Council. This mechanism ensures that the Union can respond flexibly and promptly to crises.
Under the Plan, member states will increase their defence expenditures and promote research and development, and procurement of missing advanced military weapons and technical equipment, such as command, control, and communication means; unmanned aerial vehicles; new generation tanks; anti-aircraft missile complexes, etc. At the same time, the Alliance attaches great importance to the expansion of multilateral cooperation in the fields of intelligence information, governance association, cyber data security, drills to respond to traditional and non-traditional security challenges, etc. Particularly, it focuses on expanding cooperation with the US, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to protect the Union’s core values and strategic interests. In addition, the EU uses the European Peace Fund to support member states to develop their defence and support partners in necessary military operations. After the adoption of the “Strategic Compass”, Joseph Borrell, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, stated that the Strategy will be a guideline that opens up a promising direction for the Union’s independent defence policy in the near future. At the same time, it also helps the Union to be more aware and proactive about the role of a security “pillar” to the region and the world.
A challenging future
International research experts said that to realise the goal of independence in defence and security, the EU's “Strategic Compass” is just the beginning of a long process with many difficulties and challenges. Accordingly, the main goal of the “Strategic Compass” is to provide the necessary tools for the EU to improve its defence autonomy towards being “faster, stronger, and more flexible” and perform its responsibility of ensuring security and managing crises without depending on the US, NATO, and other allies. However, since Russia launched its “special military operation” in Ukraine, the European Union has revealed several inadequacies in building an independent defence and implementing its role as a security pillar for the region. Specific manifestations are that (1) The EU is not ready and has not fully prepared the necessary plans for an independent defence and security scenario, that has been shown in member countries’ scrambling to find tanks, missile launchers, artilleries... or “in-short-supply” weapon stockpile that has not been replenished in time due to the need for aid to Ukraine; and (2) to improve its defence capabilities as required by the “Strategic Compass”, the EU needs to address multiple important issues concurrently, such as: replenishing strategic reserves that have been depleted over the past two decades; replacing outdated military equipment from the Cold War; rebuilding and innovating to retrofit new defence capabilities, etc. This is a difficult, expensive job that directly affects the results of building self-reliant defence capacity and the role of security pillars as there has been a large gap among EU member states in defence and security capacity. In addition, the share of countries' defence budgets has recently increased due to the “promise” to support military operations for Ukraine.
For the defence industry, the “Strategic Compass” proposes to increase military spending, create a mechanism for member countries to jointly produce and procure new weapons and equipment, develop advantages in the defence industry and reduce dependence on high-tech supplies from countries outside the Union. However, by focusing on short-term demand, mainly buying off-the-shelf equipment from abroad, many EU military experts say the entrenched habit will undermine European technology and, in the long run, make the Union’s defence industry highly dependent on partners, making it difficult to develop independently and detrimental to the integration process. Particularly, some member states, including key players, have signed contracts worth hundreds of billions of euros to purchase advanced US materiel to modernise their militaries. These activities are likely to fuel “outward-looking” trend, and it will also cause the budget that should have been used to boost the Union’s defence industry to flow abroad. EU officials are concerned that if the situation is not overcome soon, the goal of building an independent defence industry and a strategy of defence autonomy or creating a security pillar of the Union is unlikely to be realised.
The idea of building an independent, self-reliant EU defence was born by the sense of insecurity after deep rifts in relations between the two sides of the Atlantic, especially under US President Donald Trump. The US’s unilateral withdrawal from a series of international treaties or troops from Afghanistan without consultation with European allies, or the US’s joining Australia and the UK to form a security alliance in the Indo-Pacific region (AUKUS) without the EU and NATO's delay in dealing with regional security issues are the main reasons for the EU to build an independent defence. Specially, the developments in Ukraine are considered a strong catalyst, motivating member states to quickly adopt the “Strategic Compass”. However, the state of “discordant trumpets” - a serious disease of the Union, has caused many programs and plans to die prematurely and may push the “Strategic Compass” to the edge of the abyss.
It can be considered what has been happening in Ukraine a “lifeline” for a “brain dead” NATO, but it also makes the defence and security relationship between the EU and NATO even more unpredictable. It is because that the EU must find a way to achieve its defence independence soon while depending on the US’s “security umbrella” via NATO. On the other hand, NATO leaders have repeatedly said that this is an important stage to strengthen and enhance joint defence capabilities rather than building their own defence. Building the EU’s own defence could reduce NATO's role.
Impact on regional security
The “Strategic Compass” offers a general assessment of the strategic environment and security threats and challenges that the EU will face in the near term. It is determined that the “Russian bear” is posing a direct security threat to Europe and the EU needs to immediately establish a military force strong enough to defend itself and able to participate in dealing with problems without having to go through NATO. Therefore, when the conflict in Ukraine occurred, the EU coordinated with the US and NATO to increase draconian economic, financial, military, and diplomatic sanctions against Russia and increased aid for weapons and means of war to Ukraine. At the same time, the EU pledged €500 million from the European Peace Fund for aid to Ukraine to resolve the conflict. The moves of the EU and the US and NATO against Russia in recent time and the fact that Finland and Sweden also have applied to join NATO have pushed the EU's relations with Russia into a state of “unstoppable decline”, making the world and region situations extremely tense and unpredictable. A new world order is likely to be shaped. In addition, the EU’s contracts for modern and large-value weapons, equipment, and technical means and “huge” investment plans for research, development, and production of new generation of military equipment to improve deterrence, gain superiority over adversaries, and realise the objectives of the “Strategic Compass”, that are creating a race for “high technologies”, especially the defence industry, will affect security and peace in the region and the world.
In the context of unpredictable global security and drastical changes in the geopolitical situation, the EU's adoption of the “Strategic Compass” may lead to a new race in the defence industry, significantly affecting the world situation. Public opinion holds that, more than ever, countries and regional and international organisations need to properly realise, responsibly act, strengthen cooperation, and resolve conflicts and disagreements by peaceful means on the basis of respect for international law and the UN Charter to join hands to build a world of peace, stability, and development.
DONG DUC - NGO VAN TUYEN