Recently, witnessing Russia’s move towards the East, some people think that Moscow is adjusting its policy to respond to the US and Western sanctions. However, by carefully studying it, we could realize that Russia’s “pivot” to Asia is not a Band-Aid solution, it is a strategy to provide a new leverage for Russia’s stable development.
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Russia’s pacific fleet in Vladivostok (photo: Reuters) |
Context of Russia’s strategic adjustment
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia under the rule of President Boris Yeltsin advocated integration into “Western civilization” to develop the country. At that time, the first President of Russia used the best words for capitalist model; even he believed that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was no longer a threat to Russia, and that NATO would bring democracy to everywhere. Nevertheless, after nearly 10 years being privatized the economy on the large scale with the “aid” of Western countries, Russia made no progress, even became bogged down in a comprehensively socio-economic crisis. Russia, from a homogeneous society, became a country with hundreds of parties and non-governmental organizations. They used all tricks, ranging from bribing, seducing, distorting Marxism-Leninism to acts of sabotage against Russia’s society. More seriously, the U.S. and the West secretly support and incite terrorist organizations to wage the fratricidal war in the Chechen Republic; thus causing a wave of racial conflict and separation with a view to breaking down Russia from the inside. It is not an exaggeration to say that if the Cold War brought about the collapse of the Soviet Union in terms of politics, mass privatization (since 1991) ruined Russia in political, economic, cultural, educational and military fields, weakening and abolishing Moscow’s role in international arena. Notably, with the trick “human rights above sovereignty”, the U.S. and NATO launched an invasion of Serbia (1999), claiming the independence of Kosovo and making the region the US largest military base. Owning the base, NATO could control the whole Balkans, Central Asia, and Middle East in which Russia had important geo-political interests; at the same time, gradually taking NATO military facilities close to Russia border. This was considered as “the straw that broke the camel’s back” and the reason for Russia’s leaders to choose a different way to develop their country instead of the previous one. This change has been made since Russian President Putin started building a strategy for Russia’s shift towards Asia in 2000. Addressing the press in his first visit to China (2000), President Putin said that “Russia is a power located in both Asian and European continents. Russia is like a bird with the two wings, one is Europe, the other is Asia”. Right in his first term, he made efforts to develop Russia’s relations with Asian countries like China, India, Mongolia, South Korea, ASEAN countries, and Japan, aiming at the world’s most dynamic economies to develop his country. Recent US and Western sanctions (related to Ukraine crisis) imposed on Russia have urged the country to give priority to Asia, seeing it as a propeller to move Russian economy forward. It could be said that Russia’s pivot strategy to Asia has been planned for a long time, following a detailed route map, not a temporary response to the West as mistaken by some people. According to Russian Prime Minister Medvedev, it is a normal development and an objective requirement to deal with changes of the environment and help his country strengthen its position in comparison with the rest of the world.
Target and pillar of the strategy
In spite of not being concretely documented, Russia’s pivoting to Asia is regarded as a turning-point change and expected to reach various targets by Moscow, with the main ones as follows. First, it aims to demonstrate Russia’s rejection to Western “universal values” in Europe. Second, geo-politically, it aims to establish a new multilateral security framework in contrast to the US-centred alliance system in the region. As a result, it helps to create an environment in which Russia could both work with other countries and wield influence to resolve regional and global issues. Third, geo-economically, it aims to make Russia integral part of the Asia dynamically developing economy; thus, attracting investment to develop Russian Far East and Siberia into a production centre; on that basis, strengthening infrastructure in the region, gradually realizing “Euroasiaism” ever pursued by Moscow. However, being impacted by globalization, Asia-Pacific region, developing in increasingly dynamic way though, is also the place which has intense competition for influence among major powers. Therefore, to succeed in their pivot strategy to Asia, Russian authorities advocate the promotion of comprehensive cooperation with Asian countries with the two essential pillars, namely military and economic ones.
Economically, Moscow is ready for cooperation to become a big supplier for Asian energy market, particularly for its partners like China, India, Japan, South Korea and several ASEAN countries; in which its cooperation with China is given top priority. In this direction, over the past 10 years, a series of agreements on strategic partnership and cooperation have been signed by the two countries. In 2013, a prepayment petroleum contract, worth USD 70 billion, was signed by Russia and China. Next, in October 2014, on Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to Russia, the two sides signed more than 30 agreements on economic cooperation; even, Beijing exceptionally allowed Moscow to issue bonds in renminbi currency without the intervention of international banks. Notably, before that (May 2014), after days of negotiations, Russia and China reached a historic gas deal, worth USD 400 billion, supplying China with 38 billion cubic meters of gas within 30 years. Besides, Russia’s bilateral trade relations with Japan, South Korea, India continue to be increasingly better, regardless of the US sanctions on Moscow. Top capital markets in Asia, namely Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore are potential resources that Russia is aiming at.
What is more, while the center of global economy is shifting towards Asia, Russia’s pivoting both promotes cooperation in trade and makes best use of Asia growth to develop its Far East and Siberia. This is the biggest ambition in Russia’s strategy. This is the first time in Russia history the developing of the Far East and Siberia becomes an indispensable demand of Moscow, in order to improve socio-economic condition of a large region, generating motivation for Russia to rise as a super power in the 21st century. According to Russian economists, developing the Far East and Siberia aims to raise the quality of entire Russia, not only that of a specific geographic region, and it would not happen unless Moscow did not fully integrate into Asia. Therefore, Russia’s pivot to Asia is an objective requirement, and Moscow should take the chance to develop itself, become a reliable and responsible partner, and perform a bigger role in balancing complex geo-politics of the Pacific-Asia region.
Cooperation in defence and military between Russia and Asian countries has seen great potential. In the context of Asia-Pacific complex and unpredictable security environment, most of Asian countries tend to modernize their armed forces; thus making the region a bustling weapons market, particularly modern weapons and equipment. Meanwhile, Russia is an arms leading supplier in the world, second to the U.S., even better than the U.S. in several fields. That Moscow boosts its strategic confidence with Asian countries will ensure the country’s accessing and controlling the region’s large arms market. For about 15 years, Russia has exported plenty of modern weapons and equipment in contracts worth tens of USD billion to Asian countries; among which China is a big partner of Russia. According to military experts, recently cooperation in defence and military between Russia and China has been increasingly deepened through joint military exercises and signed contracts in military techniques. In this regard, Russia has exported and transferred modern weapons technology to China, such as the long range missile system (S-300PMU2); Su-27 and S-30 fighter aircraft; Kilo-class submarines, surface-to-air, anti-ship, surface-to-surface, anti-radiation missiles, specific ammunition, and so on.
In addition, Russia also has a special interest in cooperation with India, in order to set the balance of power in Asia. The two countries’ long-standing political and military relations are integral part of Russia’s pivot to Asia. Most of India Army’s modern weapons and equipment are from Russia, such as MiG, MiL-17V-5, Su-30MKI aircraft, tanks, submarines, and so on. Noticeably, successful production of Brahmos missile is an outstanding example of cooperation between the two countries. Also, Russia promotes its defence cooperation with North Korea, South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia countries; among which Russian-Japanese relations are “rather good”. Recently, the two countries have held talks for their Defence Ministers and Foreign Ministers in the 2+2 format to build trust and strengthen the relations. The two sides have agreed on carrying out joint naval exercises for the purposes of counter-terrorism and anti-piracy, in order to consolidate security and diplomacy.
To conclude, as a super power located in both European and Asian continents, Russia has had favourable and necessary conditions for its pivot to Asia, both inside and outside, to create new breakthroughs. While sanctioned by the West, Russia’s pivoting to Asia is indispensable and anticipated before; however, in the context of Chinese economic slowdown and Asia - Pacific security environment’s potential instability, the question of real development brought about by Russia’s strategy is still left open.
Ngo Quyen