In the context of complex, unforeseeable developments in the region and the world, in early August 2023, New Zealand promulgated fundamental documents about security and defence with the aim to review its defence capacity and restructure the military to deal with challenges. This move of New Zealand is drawing the attention of international public opinion.
New Zealand’s motive for releasing the new defence, security policy
Since the end of World War II, 14 island nations in South Pacific have been dramatically influenced by Australia and New Zealand. Moreover, the United States is also considered an enduring partner of these island nations. In South Pacific, apart from Australia and New Zealand, all the remaining island nations are small populations and undiversified, small economies with total GDP of about USD36 billion. These nations are only made known to the world through tourism. However, from the geopolitical angle, these scattered island nations are viewed as a strategic buffer zone, where can house logistical, military bases or vital transshipment hubs for airborne and maritime transportation activities between the two coasts of Pacific Ocean. Currently, the nations are becoming a new mining region because of abundant seabed natural resources. According to scientists, there are billions of multi-metal nodes containing copper, nickel, mangan, and other precious metals at the depth of thousands of metres, which can meet the world’s renewable energy in half a century.
When major powers all shift their focus on the Indo-Pacific and regard this region as their strategic priorities in the 21st century, South Pacific has become a focal point for the competition for influence on the global geopolitical chessboard. In recent years, many major powers have released their cooperation policies to increase their presence in this important region, including China and the United States. According to some reports, China has shown interest and invested in some island nations to promote development assistance and trading activities. Specifically, in April 2022, China inked a five-year security agreement with Solomon - a country 3,500km and 2,000km far from New Zealand and Australia, respectively. Although content of the agreement has not been disclosed, according to analysts, the agreement will enable China to increase its presence in this vital region. If this becomes true, New Zealand’s so-called traditional backyard will be not only narrowed, but its development strategy will be also affected.
As for the United States, it held the first-ever summit with South Pacific island nations in September 2022 in Washington DC to consolidate its position in the region. At the summit, the United States and Papua New Guinea signed a defence cooperation agreement. Accordingly, the United States will provide $45 million to support Papua New Guinea’s military modernisation and Papua New Guinea will allow American warships to access its harbours and conduct patrols around the area in exchange. Additionally, the United States strengthens its alliance with the United Kingdom and Australia within the AUKUS framework, most notably the plan to build Australia’s fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. According to the plan, Australia’s Stirling Harbour will be upgraded to house submarines from the United Kingdom and the United States by 2027. Australia is expected to take delivery of the nuclear-powered submarines from the United States by 2030. Then, AUKUS’s deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region will be greatly enhanced. Furthermore, this alliance conducted AI experiments to test its real-time military target detection and tracking in May 2023.
According to international experts, animated activities of major powers and organisations in South Pacific have considerable influence on strategies of island nations, including New Zealand. Thus, to address risks in the region while meeting rising expectations of its neighbours and partners, New Zealand has adjusted its defence and security policies.
Fundamental content of the policy
In early August this year, in a surprise move, New Zealand’s Ministry of Defence unveiled three strategic documents concurrently, namely the National Security Strategy, Defence Policy and Strategy Statement, and Future Force Design Principle.
New Zealand’s Defence Minister Andrew Little says, contrary to previous strategies and policies, the three documents are comprehensive and inclusive combination of many issues, ranging from defence, security challenges the country is facing to measures to enhanced defence capacity through defence diplomacy and improved operational capabilities in the future. According to the Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies, Victoria University of Wellington, the three aforementioned documents are developed on the basis of the 2021 Defence Review and advocate for New Zealand’s more proactive defence strategy. The Pacific Reset unveiled in 2018 also warns about intensifying strategic competition in the Pacific, Southern Ocean, and South Pole. At the same time, this strategic document emphasises that the Indo-Pacific is a focal point for geopolitical competition.
Among the three documents, the National Security Strategy assumes the role as guidance for shaping the overall defence, security policy while concrete courses of action, security thinking, and long-term defence measures are mapped out in the Defence Policy and Strategy Statement and Future Force Design Principle. Obviously, this is the first time New Zealand has ever released a National Security Strategy with a new approach focusing on courses of action and cooperation methods to timely prevent threats. The Strategy affirms that cyber security, maritime security, border security, strategic competition, the rules-based international system, foreign interference and espionage, terrorism, and nontraditional security issues present threats to New Zealand. Consequently, all forces must unite and soon work out programmes of action to make the country safer. Accordingly, the Strategy advocates greater investment in the Defence Force to enhance combat power, reform the national security system, and resolve traditional and nontraditional security issues in the region.
The Defence Policy and Strategy Statement concentrates on guiding formulation of plans, taking actions, committing, and investing in defence to respond to challenges. According to the Statement, what concerns New Zealand includes long-term military presence in the region of a nation which does not have shared security interest and value with this country, use of military force or paramilitary forces for exploitation of resources, confrontation, or military conflict. The Statement specifies that protection of national interests should be pursued through a more deliberate and purposeful approach and seek to achieve four core interests namely a secure, sovereign, and resilient New Zealand; a secure, stable, and resilient region; collective security through a strong network of partners; and a strong and effective international rules-based system. Australia continues to be the closest ally. Additionally, the Statement emphasises that close relationship with the United States and members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is key to increased capabilities to respond to geostrategic challenges.
In the Future Force Design Principle, New Zealand determines that the Defence Force needs to strengthen its combat capability and expand operations to contingencies in the Pacific. Accordingly, the Defence Force must possess robust operational capacity, adaptability, resilience, and flexibility to respond to situations and be more agile in adopting new technologies in combat. In the short run, Wellington will focus on stabilising forces, increasing defence budget, and speeding up defence capability review. In the medium and long run, the Defence Force will be equipped and trained for a range of contingencies, including armed conflict, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief. In fact, the Government of New Zealand has made considerable investment in replacing the P-3 Orion maritime surveillance aircraft by the P-8 Poseidon multi-mission maritime patrol aircraft, upgrading the C-130 Hercules military transport aircraft, and maintaining operational capacity. New Zealand Ministry of Defence has also identified eleven principles and four underlying assumptions to guide future force design and capability requirements to address challenges.
The Defence Force’s enhanced response to the increasingly complex strategic environment will bring about more choices for New Zealand to act more effectively both independently and in partnership. This demonstrates that New Zealand’s new defence, security policy prioritises not only fulfilment of the goal to protect national security but also building of defence capability commensurate with AUKUS members, especially Australia and the United States. Recently, this country has announced its readiness for dialogues about AUKUS membership with a view to promoting a free, open, secure, and stable Indo-Pacific. New Zealand once participated in the Australia, New Zealand, and United States Security Treaty (ANZUS). Nevertheless, due to disagreement over nuclear tests in South Pacific, the United States announced indefinite suspension of ANZUS in 1985. Wellington has been consistent with denuclearisation of the Pacific since then, though it still allows US warships to access its harbours. Therefore, New Zealand’s cooperation with AUKUS can be only promoted in cyberspace, artificial intelligence, and hypersonic weapons. Nevertheless, Defence Minister Andrew Little notes that whether or not New Zealand participates in AUKUS, its Defence Force is still equipped to work with Australia. Military researchers believe that the new strategic documents seem to have green-lighted New Zealand’s accession to AUKUS. Thus, Wellington is going against its current independent foreign policy. In fact, there remains objection to accession to AUKUS. “We do not plan to participate in AUKUS”, said Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta in response to media requests on the occasion of Antony Blinken’s visit.
According to international experts, New Zealand’s shifting defence, security policy will enable this country to make the most of new opportunities and relationships to promote and safeguard its national interests. More importantly, the alliance with AUKUS will help New Zealand to strengthen its defence capability, thereby having a greater voice and influence in the Indo-Pacific in general, South Pacific in particular.
LAM PHUONG