Last April, the Australian government under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the 2023 National Defence Strategic Review that is considered relatively holistic and ambitious, providing specific strategic directions, in order to consolidate and improve the country's defence capacity. The review’s cause, adjustment, prospects and effects are issues of international public concern.

Australia is located in Oceania between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. It has significant advantages in defence and security thanks to being separated from other continents. According to its defence evaluation, Australia has been one of the safest countries in the world since the 1980s due to its isolated location from the economic and political centres of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific regions, as well as from areas of military conflicts in Europe and the Northern hemisphere. The country has rarely faced any defence or security threats since World War II, even when the global war on terrorism was most intense. However, this advantage of Australia is gradually disappearing due to rapid changes in the strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific region.

Reasons for adjustment

Australian strategic planners believe that the Indo-Pacific region is currently a "flash-point" in disputes over sovereignty of seas, islands, natural resources, nuclear weapons proliferation and non-traditional security challenges, etc. Also, the region is facing many potential risks because of the growing strategic competition between major powers in economics, politics, military, diplomacy, etc. Also in this region, the United States’ power and role are showing signs of decline, while China is gradually rising to challenge its superpower position. As for Russia, although it must focus its strength on the "special military campaign", it still seeks to expand its influence over the Asia-Pacific region. According to international defence and military research experts, China's military strength has made remarkable progress after years of efforts to modernise the military. Defence analysis organization, Global Firepower, said that China currently ranks third in the world in terms of military power, only behind the US and Russia; at the same time, it is the country with largest standing army and navy in the world, and is one of four countries possessing a complete nuclear deterrent trio, including: land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and aircraft carrying nuclear weapons.

International military researchers point out that Australia has to face a possibly higher level of strategic risks due to the increasing strategic competition between major powers, the improvement in military capabilities, especially long-range strike capability of some countries in the region, along with issues of climate change, epidemics, the disruption of the global supply chain, etc. Faced with the movements in the Indo-Pacific region and non-traditional security challenges, Australia must certainly adjust its defence strategy to cope with new security challenges, while protecting its nation-state’s interests.

Adjustments

Throughout the past five decades, Australia has always maintained a defence policy to prevent and respond to low-level potential threats from small to middle countries in the region while maintaining a relatively balanced force structure and resources among the military services. However, in the changing global and regional context, this approach is no longer appropriate, and the advantage of geographical distance will no longer be effective in protecting the country and its people. Therefore, on April 24, 2023, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's administration announced the 2023 Defence Strategic Review. According to this Review, the US is no longer the only unipolar leader in the Indo-Pacific region; the fierce competition between the US and China will be the decisive factor in the strategic environment; and the power competition between major countries, if being uncontrolled in the region may lead to conflicts; then, Australia's national interests and security will be threatened. The Review also unfavourably describes the military strategic intentions of key adversaries, which Canberra considers as a reason to expand its military might. In addition, the Review also mentioned a number of areas that the Australian government needs to prioritise in the coming time, such as: equipping nuclear-powered submarines; developing the capacity of the Australian Defence Force (ADF); improving ADF’s deployment capabilities at northern military bases; developing and maintaining a highly skilled workforce for the defence industry; cooperating closely between the defence industry and other industries; deepening diplomatic and defence relations with important partners in the region. Military researchers say that, compared to previous defence reviews, Australia's 2023 Defence Strategic Review is considered basic, comprehensive and more appropriate to current trends, with three major recommendations:

First, strengthening defence capacity to deter opponents. Accordingly, Australia will focus on developing long-range strike capability and improving ADF's rapid response capabilities by using next-generation weapons, such as AI-powered autonomous weapons, hypersonic weapons, electronic warfare, undersea warfare, etc. With the help of these weapons, Australia expects that adversaries will have to consider the consequences if they intend to harm the country’s national interests. The Strategic Review also states that Australia Navy’s warships will be equipped with long-range attack weapons for offensive capabilities; the Army will be equipped with the US’ high mobility rocket artillery systems (HIMARS) and precision attack missiles; at the same time, integrating long-range anti-ship missiles into the air force's fighter aircraft. Along with that, Canberra will invest a budget of about 268 billion USD to strengthen and improve the capacity of naval forces through the project of equipping nuclear-powered submarines within the AUKUS framework. This is Australia’s largest investment in a defence project to date.

Second, returning the alliance with the US to the central position in defence strategy. Compared to the 2020 National Defence Strategic Update, the US role is shown more clearly in the 2023 National Defence Strategic Review, emphasising the increasingly important role of the two countries’ alliance in maintaining balance and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. According to the Review, the two countries will increase joint exercises to improve the combat coordination, and Australia will focus on developing science, technology and defence industry to take advantage of the US’ military superiority to accelerate its military modernisation efforts. In fact, the relationship between the US and Australia has been closely linked since before. In September 2021, during the 2+2 Dialogue, the two sides agreed to strengthen cooperation on garrison forces, thereby paving the way for the US to increase its military presence in Australia. In early 2022, the US also announced that it would send about 2,200 rotational naval troops to the bases in the North, and the Pentagon also made detailed plans to ensure that the infrastructure at Australian military bases can accommodate operations of B52 strategic bombing aircraft. Last July, Australia together with the US and Germany (Germany’s first participation) organised the large-scale Talisman Saber military exercise. During this exercise, the parties conducted attacks on simulated targets with precision missiles as well as introducing the HIMARS system.

Third, accelerating its strategic autonomy by promoting the defence industry and strengthening relations with partners. According to Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Donald Marles, the country will begin producing guided missiles domestically in 2025 (two years earlier than expected), several low-priority defence projects will be canceled to spare resources for this production plan, which is expected to double the budget to US$1.7 billion. Currently, the Australian government is also actively negotiating with US companies Raytheon and Lockheed Martin on establishing missile production facilities in Australia; negotiating with Norway's Kongsberg company to purchase attack missiles as the premise to domestically produce this missile line; Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's administration also accelerated the ability to be self-sufficient in ammunition in all situations. In addition, Australia continues to maintain and promote defence cooperation with countries in the region, especially allies and partners. Notably, in relations with India, in addition to upgrading bilateral relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, the two sides also signed a Defence Agreement, Mutual Logistics Agreement (MLSA) and other agreements on defence science and technology; as for the Philippines, Australia continues to expand defence and security cooperation, signing a Logistics Support Agreement and a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on defence industry and logistics cooperation; as for Japan, Australia promotes strategic relations towards cooperation in island chains in the South Pacific, etc.

Prospects and influence

This is the first time since World War II that Australia has made a fundamental adjustment in its defence strategy in accordance with new perceptions of risks and the regional security environment. This new strategy will be actively implemented by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's administration to accelerate the military modernisation process, enhancing its deterrence cappabilities, accurately, effectively and quickly responding to military conflicts, ensuring the safety of key commercial transportation routes, responding to climate change and cyber security, etc. In addition, strengthening and further tightening the alliance with the US will also help this country improve its ability to protect national security and interests. However, according to international observers, Australia is expected to face other strategic risks, due to the not very positive assessment of China's military strategic intentions and the reactions of some regional countries to the AUKUS Agreement. Furthermore, the plan of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government to equip the military with modern weapons and equipment, especially nuclear-powered submarines, could also be a "catalyst" to trigger the arms race in the Indo-Pacific region.

MY CHAU