After the US-North Korean Summit held on June 12th, 2018 in Singapore, the relations between these two countries have basically been transformed from “confrontation” into “dialogue”. Although the deal between America and North Korea is rather vague and has yet to be put into effect, it has considerably impacted on the region’s complexion and attracted public attention.
Before the start of the Summit, America and North Korea had only signed an Armistice Agreement instead of an agreement to end the Korean War and restore peace. Meanwhile, Russia and Japan had not signed any peace treaty yet, except for the Ceasefire Agreement. Therefore, the Northeast Asia is always in the state of military confrontation, particularly between North Korea as one side and South Korea, Japan and America as the other. That is also the reason why America, Russia, Japan, North Korea and South Korea have concentrated their strategic deterrent forces on this region.
However, on June 12th, 2018, US President Donald Trump and North Korean President Kim Jong-un decided to meet each other and signed a deal between the two countries, creating an important transformation from “confrontation” to “peaceful dialogue”, opening up a new complexion in the Northeast Asia.
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| US President Donald Trump and North Korean President Kim Jong-un signed the deal at the meeting in Singapore (photo: Reuters) |
After the US-North Korean Summit, within the United States of America, it is believed that President Donald Trump’s adjustment in policy to deal with the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula has been a sound strategy. It could be explained that the issue of North Korea has yet to be a task of highest importance to the US security. However, it is a very thorny “profile” that has a great impact on the US status and prestige in the Northeast Asia and the world and has yet to be addressed by previous governments. Therefore, President Donald Trump has no option but to improve the US-North Korean relations at present. Since taking office, President Donald Trump has not handled any international profile related to global security and politics in general yet; thereby, he must give top priority to the nuclear issue of North Korea. By doing so, on the one hand, America hopes to transform the Korean Peninsula from a battlefield into a market, which facilitates the US access to China and Russia. On the other hand, the improvement in the US relations with North Korea will help alleviate tension in the Northeast Asia and create a favourable condition for America to implement the Indo-Pacific Strategy and gradually contain China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative. That also serves the purpose of winning the United States midterm election when President Donald Trump’s viewpoints on dialogue with Russia – “allying with Russia against China” encounter a storm of protest from parties, including his Republican Party. To maintain dialogue with North Korea, the U.S. not only makes concessions to several issues but has no responses to North Korea’s decisions on slowing down negotiations over the process of denuclearization.
The two sides have taken very careful steps in implementing the deal while probing each other’s reaction. America has halted the exercise with South Korea, established a hot line between leaders of the two countries, continued to hold talks on the issues related to nuclear disarmament with North Korea, South Korea and Japan, which satisfies necessary conditions for the following negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea for the sake of restoration of peace on the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, America and South Korea have yet to make any decision about the other exercises, such as “Key Resolve” and “Foal Eagle”. They have even taken no steps in lifting sanctions imposed on North Korea – the nucleus for which Pyongyang is expecting. Besides, the United States has passed the National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA), the centrepiece of which is to prevent everything from impacting on the US forces stationed in South Korea, except for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Meanwhile, North Korea only destroyed a number of its nuclear facilities as the world’s media watched; restored the military communication lines with South Korea; held reunions for families separated by war; returned remains of the US soldiers from the Korean War; and had several senior-level meetings with the U.S. and South Korea.
It is thought that North Korea will do anything to maintain the détente in accord with the guidelines on national development by the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK). The 3rd Plenum of the Central Committee of the WPK (7th tenure) advocated a period of strategic détente to develop the country’s economic potential and pursue a new diplomatic line. Following that policy, Pyongyang has focused all resources on developing the country in accordance with the conditions of the country and the Northeast Asia. Diplomatically, North Korea has pursued balanced access to both China and America to achieve the supreme strategic interests. Thus, it has both promoted dialogue with America and stayed close to China, while maintaining cooperation and dialogue with South Korea and Japan, and seeking chances to lift sanctions and encourage the inter-Korean relations and others in the region. It could be said that after the US-North Korean Summit, Pyongyang has taken very clear steps in which it hopes to relinquish military confrontation with America and South Korea to lift sanctions and attract investments and experience for its economic development, and to maintain long-lasting relations with China and Russia for the sake of national development.
In spite of differences in benefits, interest and views on dealing with the North Korea’s nuclear issue, China, Japan and Russia all desire a peaceful, stable Korean Peninsula and settlement of the nuclear issue via political dialogue. To avoid being left off the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula, Russia and China have continued to impact on and intervene in the process of negotiation between the US and North Korea in order to maintain their influence and strategic interests. Recently, Russia and China have also increased high-level meetings with North Korea. Russian President Putin has even invited North Korean President Kim Jong-un to pay an official visit to the Russian Federation while Chinese President Xi Jinping has planned to pay an official visit to North Korea in September. Those moves mentioned above express the interest of both Moscow and Beijing and their desire to restore their role in negotiation on the nuclear issue of North Korea.
In response to the developments in the Northeast Asia and the improvement in the US-North Korean relations, Japan has decided to remove the duty order for its Aegis-equipped destroyers while keeping the PAC3 missile defence units on duty 24 hours to readily shoot down all missiles from North Korea before they reach the country’s territory. In fact, North Korea possesses a great deal of medium-range missiles that could fly to Japan’s territory. Generally, in spite of progresses in the US-North Korean relations which have also positively impacted on the Northeast Asia’s security, Tokyo has resolved to implement the Plan made by the Japanese Ministry of Defence in late 2017 to acquire 2 Aegis Ashore missile defence systems to supplement its national missile defence system. This system is planned to be put into use by 2023. With such a system, Japan could shoot down all types of missiles of North Korea from afar, even from the atmosphere to absolutely secure its territory. Moreover, Japan has kept a close watch on the situation on the Korean Peninsula as Tokyo is frightened that the US and even South Korea could “wheel and deal” with North Korea to put aside this country. Besides, there are a series of issues that concern Japanese people, such as Japanese people kidnapped in the 1970s and the 1980s, the US troops stationed in the region (South Korea and Japan). Against that backdrop, Tokyo will have to directly discuss with relevant parties, particularly US President Donald Trump, South Korea, and possibly North Korea with a view to clearly understanding the next steps of the US, Seoul and relevant parties. In addition, Japan will encourage the measures for denuclearization and the security treaty between Washington and Tokyo.
Generally speaking, the situation in the Northeast Asia has yet to be clearly shaped when parties, particularly America, North Korea and South Korea still doubt one another, and there is no strategic trust. Although parties have been taking steps after the US-North Korean deal, they are probing the attitude of each other. According to experts, in the Northeast Asia where Russia and China is threatening the US position as a superpower, denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula is only a light at the end of the tunnel which can’t handle basic issues in this region. In fact, the U.S. deployment of its forces and weapons, including its strategic nuclear forces to the North Korea aims to not only deal with North Korea, but create a balance in security term with Russia and China. That will also help contain China’s rise and prevent this country from occupying the position as an economic, military superpower of the world. Thus, it is believed that the US military bases, means and troops and its Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) in South Korea will remain in the Northeast Asia until the competition between America and China as well as the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula end. To conclude, the Northeast Asia’s security and political structure in the coming time will depend on North Korea’s attitude towards and its negotiation degree with America and South Korea as well as the impact by China and partly Russia on its negotiation with the US.
Maj. Gen., Assoc Prof, Dr Vu Tien Trong, Head of the Institute for Defence International Relations