In the current context, the Indo -Pacific has emerged as one of the world’s leading geostrategic regions in terms of politics, economy, and military. Therefore, it attracts special attention from great powers as well as major international organisations, including NATO. Accordingly, this organisation is accelerating the process of forming an “Indo-Pacific NATO” with specific steps. This move is said to have a great influence on regional and international security, which arouses deep concern in the international community.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) was formed in the Cold War “era” to strengthen comprehensive cooperation among the capitalist countries in Western Europe, preventing the influence and spread of the socialist system led by the Soviet Union. To counterbalance NATO, the Soviet Union and the socialist countries in Eastern Europe formed the Warsaw Pact. After the end of the Cold War, Russia abandoned socialism and “voluntarily” integrated into the Western world with a desire to build a “Common European Home”, forming a peaceful and cooperative space throughout the Eurasian continent. Consequently, the Warsaw Pact announced its dissolution. For that reason, NATO should no longer exist. However, it continues to develop and modernise and has expanded from 15 member countries in the Cold War to 31 countries up to the present, and it is projected to admit several new members, under the pretext of “dealing with the threat of invasion from Russia”!
Interestingly, NATO’s 2030 Strategic Concept identifies Russia as a “direct threat” and China as a “systematic threat to the Western world”. Besides, NATO considers China’s sphere of influence and actions as new challenges to Western democracies. According to NATO, China has been increasing its presence in the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Artic, developing ballistic missiles, long-range bombers, aircraft carriers, and nuclear-capable submarines that can operate across the oceans. Additionally, China is implementing a series of strategic projects, including the “Belt and Road” Initiative, the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”, and the “Digital Silk Road” to realise the goal of becoming the world’s leading power in the field of artificial intelligence by 2030 and the world’s leading technology superpower by 2049.
In the Cold War, the sole aim of NATO was to restrain the influence of the Soviet Union, which was the leading country of the socialist system. However, at present, this alliance aims at not only containing Russia but also China in the long-term perspective. Following that orientation, under the presidency of Donald Trump, the US began to change its “pivot” strategy towards the Asia-Pacific (under former President Barack Obama) to the Indo-Pacific Strategy and established the Quad group consisting of the US, Japan, India, and Australia.
After his inauguration in early 2021, President Joe Biden said that the Indo-Pacific Strategy would create favourable conditions for the US to lead a “rule-based international order” to serve the purpose of prosperous and stable development, or the world would become “chaotic” if another country (referring to China) took over the leadership. This comment was to oppose China’s policy of building an “international community of common destiny”, which underlines that the competition between the US and China is a struggle between two opposing political systems and ideologies.
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To realise the Indo-Pacific Strategy, the US advocates building an “Indo-Pacific NATO” to contain China’s growing influence like the way NATO restrains the Russia’s influence in Europe. The structure of the “Indo-Pacific NATO” is shaped from the Tripartite Security Pact between the US, UK, and Australia (AUKUS) signed on September 15, 2021, which aims at strengthening cooperation in terms of foreign affairs, security, and national defence in the Indo-Pacific to “resolve challenges of the 21st century”. However, in effect, it aims at containing China. The joint statement between the US, UK, and Australia on the establishment of AUKUS states that AUKUS is guided by a long-term ideal and shared commitment to a “rules-based international order”. These “rules” are mainly set and governed by the US. Therefore, AUKUS is an important step made by Washington to adjust NATO from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. This adjustment consists of not only general political commitments but also legally binding agreements and pacts, which are at a higher level. According to the US spokesperson, on the basis of AUKUS, Washington is committed to strengthening bilateral relations with allies and traditional security partners in Asia, including Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and the Philippines and to developing interactions with new partners in this region. Hence, it is obvious that the formation of AUKUS is the driving force behind NATO’s global strategic adjustment to the Indo-Pacific.
After the establishment of AUKUS, NATO took its first step to realise the project of an “Indo-Pacific NATO’. In 2022, NATO invited South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to the NATO Summit as observers, which marked the first-ever attendance of Asian leaders at a NATO summit. Then, from January 29th to February 1st, 2023, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg completed his visit to South Korea and Japan - the two key US allies in the Indo-Pacific. During this visit, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg stated that security in the Indo-Pacific and Europe are inseparable, and NATO will remain focused on Europe and North America. Indeed, NATO members need to address global threats and challenges, including those posed by China, by cooperating more closely with other partners in the Indo-Pacific. Japan and South Korea also welcomed NATO’s growing interest in the Indo-Pacific and pledged to strengthen cooperation through regular participation in NATO summits. Furthermore, Japan is expected to set up a permanent mission at NATO headquarters in 2023 to promote specific cooperation activities. Additionally, within the framework of this visit, Japan and NATO signed a new cooperation agreement in cybersecurity and maritime security while they agreed to expand forces participating in the two sides’ joint exercises.
Different reactions of the parties
The secretary of the Security Council of Russia considers AUKUS as a variant of a military alliance to contain both China and Russia in the Indo-Pacific that has the same geopolitical and economic significance as Europe in the 19th and 20th centuries. According to analysts, as several NATO members in Europe do not want to conflict with China, the US and the UK opted for creating an “Indo-Pacific NATO” to realise this goal. In the coming time, it is likely that AUKUS will gradually expand to other countries in the Indo – Pacific.
According to the UK-based Guardian newspaper, the relations between China and Australia are at a low level. Meanwhile, the US, UK, and Australia are looking to meet the challenges of China’s expansion of strategic influence at regional and global scales. An international security expert from Indonesia’s Al Azhar University, Rizal Hidayat, said that AUKUS aimed to promote effective and efficient cooperation among members of the intelligence alliance of the “Five Eyes”, including the US, the UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand to contain China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, another objective of AUKUS is to improve the efficiency of the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) with the participation of Australia, the UK, New Zealand, Singapore, and Malaysia based on the principle of mutual protection. Accordingly, whenever an FPDA member is attacked by a foreign country, other members are responsible for protecting it, which is similar to Article 5 of the founding Treaty of NATO in the Cold War. Commenting on the formation of AUKUS, the BBC published an article entitled “AUKUS marks a decision of historical significance between the UK, US, and Australia – forming an alliance in the Indo-Pacific to contain China”. An Indian analyst Pranab Dhal Samanta believes that AUKUS will contribute to improving the cooperation efficiency among the member countries of the Five Eyes and the Quad group in the Indo-Pacific.
Due to the anti-China orientation of AUKUS, Beijing immediately reacted to this event. The representative of the China Embassy in the US considered AUKUS a tripartite alliance against China and called on the parties to this alliance to abandon the Cold War mentality and ideological prejudices. The spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the decision to establish AUKUS of the US, UK, and Australia was “extremely irresponsible” and an act that “severely undermines regional peace and accelerates the arms race”.
In response to the visit of the NATO Secretary General to the two Asian countries, the spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented: “Visiting South Korea and Japan, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg is always promoting the so-called “threat from China” and sow discord among countries in the region. China is committed to the world peace and stability. We do not engage in geopolitical competition and do not intend to challenge or threaten any country. Peace, cooperation, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific have been achieved thanks to the joint efforts of regional countries. This region does not welcome the Cold War mentality and the confrontation between the factions. NATO needs to reconsider its role in European security. We have witnessed what NATO has done to Europe, and they should not seek to wreak havoc to the Indo-Pacific or elsewhere in the world”.
It can be seen that the expansion of NATO’s influence into the Indo-Pacific has been arousing concern for countries in this region, as it increases the risk of instability when the competition between China and the West becomes increasingly fierce, which has been predicted by international analysts and commentators.
ANH TUAN - THUY DUONG