Nowadays, under the impact of globalisation, the Fourth Industrial Revolution and strategic competition between major powers, international relations are facing rapid and unprecedented changes in the post-Cold War era. This is also an issue of great concern to many international scholars and researchers.
A multipolar world order is taking shape
According to international observers, Russia's special military operation in Ukraine began from 24 February 2022 has become a full-scale war between Western countries led by the US and Russia. In this war, the US leadership and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) plan to force Russia into "strategic failure", followed by a comprehensive crisis and finally a disintegration. This will help Washington remove the biggest obstacle to its unipolar world order formed after the Cold War. Speaking at many major international forums, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he does not accept the unipolar world order led by the US, as it is undemocratic and sooner or later must be replaced by a multipolar one. In fact, the US-led unipolar world order is based on three pillars: the global position of the US dollar (USD), US military power, and the American model (or “American values”). These three pillars are all facing the risk of collapse. Accordingly, the world is entering an era of "de-dollarisation" of the economy; America's military might revealed fundamental limitations as demonstrated by the failure of the 20-year "global war on terrorism" in Afghanistan. Therefore, the "American model" may not be the choice of the majority of countries in the world. Meanwhile, new powers are emerging, such as China and Russia, planning to build a multipolar world order, and these countries are playing a very important role in international connections, such as: The Group of major emerging economies, also known as BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), attracting dozens of participating countries. In addition to the 5 countries that have just become members since January 2024, there are also 40 other countries wishing to join BRICS, 20 countries aiming for SCO. According to international analysts, BRICS and SCO can be "prototypes of a multipolar world order", because the institutions of these associations are built on the basis of the United Nations Charter and international laws.
NATO's expansion
NATO's strategy to 2030 stipulates that the bloc is facing many challenges, especially Russia's strengthened military power and the rise of China, which is significantly changing the balance of power in the world, leading to a race for economic and technological superiority. To adapt to the new political and security environment, NATO determines the alliance's operational directions to strengthen and maintain military power, towards a politically unified organisation, applying a global approach, identifying Russia as a direct threat, and China as a systemic threat, admitting new members in Europe and expanding its influence into Asia. Accordingly, the US, UK and Australia officially established a trilateral security partnership (AUKUS) to act as the nucleus of "Asian NATO". In addition to AUKUS, the US recommended Japan and South Korea to establish a trilateral alliance at the Summit on 18 August 2023.
Forming new international relations
More than 30 years after the Cold War, when there was no longer confrontation between the two world political systems and the two largest military blocs in the world, namely NATO and Vacsava, there appeared a new style of international relations "partnership", which includes both cooperation and competition. Partnership consists of four levels: comprehensive partner, strategic partner, comprehensive strategic partner and special partner. The comprehensive partnership is based on two basic criteria: (1) there are many areas of cooperation with mutual benefits but these are of national strategic significance; (2) there exists mutual trust but not to the strategic level. The strategic partnership is based on six criteria: (1) no territorial disputes; (2) Some areas of mutually beneficial cooperation are of national strategic significance; (3) have sufficient strategic trust; (4) long-term cooperation (may last for decades); (5) equality in international relations; (6) have mechanisms to implement strategic partnerships. Comprehensive strategic partnership based on 09 criteria, which consist of 6 criteria of strategic partnership, and 3 other ones as: (1) strategic cooperation in all fields, at all levels and between all organisations; (2) is not limited to the relationship between the two countries but involves many countries on a regional and global scale; (3) sharing a vision of solving regional and global challenges.
The trend of regionalisation
Regionalisation refers to the process of unification between different countries and regions within the same continent or between continents on the basis of equality and mutual benefit and is also becoming an objective trend for many reasons. Firstly, the globalisation process is in crisis because Washington wants to make it the "Americanisation" one. This is the driving force promoting the formation of regional links to protect the interests of countries against America's "economic invasion". Second, the Fourth Industrial Revolution brings the socialisation of production beyond national borders, posing the need to remove barriers in the market and form economic links between countries. Third, the uneven development in the world economy promotes economic regionalisation, in which the economic powers want to use it as a support to maintain and strengthen their strength. Fourth, the fierce competition in the market forces regional countries to establish links to protect their markets. Notable examples of regionalisation are the Group of Major Emerging Economies (BRICS), the Eurasian Economic Union, the League of Arab States, and the United African Community, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), etc.
National sovereignty in international relations has changed profoundly
Accordingly, national sovereignty is no longer limited to the traditional concept of geographical sovereignty and political institutions, but is expanded to include economic space sovereignty, digital space sovereignty, and cultural and artistic space, etc. Currently, many countries still confidently declare that they can firmly protect national sovereignty in the sense that geographical sovereignty and political regime are firmly maintained, but in reality, they have lost economic sovereignty, digital space sovereignty, and cultural and artistic sovereignty due to the spread and intrusion of multinationals with potentials even stronger than those of the countries.
Many wars and conflicts broke out
International opinion holds that the post-Cold War era should have been an era of peace because there was no longer confrontation between the two main political systems, but in reality it became an era of war and conflict stemming from geopolitical competition. Wars in Kosovo (1999), Afghanistan (2000 - 2021), Iraq (2003), Libya (2011), Syria (2011),... and most recently the military conflict between Russia - Ukraine and between Israel - Hamas are prime examples of this. Accordingly, geopolitical competition has caused NATO (led by the US) to "expand" and refuse Russia's negotiation request to sign a Treaty to ensure equal security, leading to a full-scale war with Russia in Ukraine. In the Middle East, with the support of the US and other Western countries, Israel does not accept the Palestinian state, leading to the continuous conflicts between the two sides, culminating in the conflict with Hamas since October 2023 without sign of ending, even threatening to spread throughout the region.
Transnational and global challenges emerge
It is said that at present and in the coming years, there are emerging global challenges and risks that no single country can resolve. These include, climate change, natural disasters, international terrorism, energy crisis, food crisis, transnational crime, cybersecurity, food security, market security, monetary security, intellectual property security, educational security, cultural security, health security, etc. Therefore, more than ever, countries around the world should strengthen cooperation to resolve these challenges and risks.
Information becomes a weapon of cognitive warfare
During the Cold War era, information was once considered the “fourth branch of power” after the legislative, executive, and judiciary. Nowadays, information is not only a branch of power but has also become a weapon of a new type of war, called cognitive war, which may change people's perception of the world. One prominent feature of cognitive warfare is that it has endless resources, a "non-lethal" effect, forcing the opponent to lose without surrendering or signing peace agreements. The US is in dominance in this war because it owns major media companies with 90% of the global information volume. With the advent and development of artificial intelligence, cognitive warfare can destruct massively, much more effectively than nuclear weapons, and can force the opponent to "surrender" or "submit" without causing physical destruction.
Developing into socialism is an inevitable trend of the times
The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed all the flaws of capitalism, which is in a systemic crisis, starting with the crisis in the US in 2008. The World Economic Forum in 2020 stated that it is time for the world capitalism to carry out a great restructuring (Great Reset) towards values similar to the ones of real socialism, such as: eliminating social equality, promoting human dignity, eliminating poverty and unemployment, fighting corruption, protecting the environment, building universal education and healthcare systems, etc. It is not surprising that right in the hearts of the world's leading developed capitalist countries, the values of socialism are attracting the attention of a large number of people and political elites. According to the results of the Gallup poll (USA) conducted in 2018, as many as 57% of the population in the world's leading developed capitalist countries show dissatisfaction with the current capitalist model; 51% of American youth and 57% of American Democrats are interested in the values of socialism. In that context, Francis Fukuyama - author of the theory on "the end of history" admits that the current model of capitalism is on the decline and developing towards socialism is an inevitable trend of the times.
Senior Colonel LE THE MAU