In order to cope with global security challenges and protect national interests, the Japanese Government, under Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, has been focusing on enhancing the combat capabilities of its defence forces. At the same time, it has introduced a new security strategy. The formation context and basic content of this strategy, as well as its implications for the region, are currently matters of international concern.
The context of formation
In assessing the current global landscape, Japanese policymakers believe that the global security structure and balance of power are undergoing significant changes. Strategic competition among major powers is being intensified across various domains, particularly in economics, politics, defence, and security. The most prominent competition remains between the US and China. Furthermore, a series of intertwined and successive events, such as Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, North Korea’s nuclear tests, and the strengthening of bilateral cooperation between Russia and China, etc., have made the strategic competition among major countries more complex and unpredictable. Consequently, the struggle for a new world order has become a more pressing issue than ever. The Indo-Pacific Region, including Japan, is strongly affected by the changing global power balance and faces numerous challenges. Particularly, maritime disputes in this region pose significant risks and could escalate into conflicts if the involved parties do not restrain their actions and behaviours.
In today’s complex global and regional security environment, in order to safeguard its national security and interests, the Government of Japan has adopted a dual-pillar strategy: enhancing the independent and autonomous defence capabilities of its national self-defence forces and expanding defence and security cooperation with alliances and partners. To realise this strategy, besides the announcement of a new defence strategy with ambitious plans for the development of the self-defence forces, the Government of Japan also intensifies bilateral relations through the overseas visits of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. Announced in December 2022, the strategy stipulates that the next five years will be the "pivot" phase, during which Tokyo plans to increase its defence spending from the current level of 1% of GDP to 2% by 2027. The Japanese Ministry of Defence will also restructure the self-defence forces and study to establish a comprehensive defence posture across the entire country, particularly through the redeployment of forces and modern combat assets such as aircraft, and long-range missiles, on key islands and strategic axes in the South. Tokyo will also allocate a significant budget to transform its self-defence forces into a “versatile” military, equipping them with new defence technologies, modern weaponry and military equipment, advancing missile defence and offence systems, new types of warheads, long-range weapons, multi-role fighter aircraft, drones, space defence systems, and cyber security platforms.
According to the Japanese military circles, the new defence strategy of the government reflects a “turning point” in its defence mindset, shifting from a “passive defence” to an “active and proactive defence” approach, and the need to possess the capability to “effectively counterattack into enemy territory as a minimum self-defence measure”. The security policy of Japan also has some unique features as it pursuits a transition from primarily relying on the “nuclear umbrella” of the US for national security to ensuring security based on the combination of independent and autonomous defence capabilities of the self-defence forces and diversifying defence and security cooperation with alliances and partners.
“The cherry blossom petals”
To realise the plan of expanding Japan’s defence capabilities over the next 5 years, particularly in terms of building a new defence structure, enhancing counterattack capabilities, and upgrading missile systems, from the 9th to the 14th of January 2023, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio embarked on a diplomatic trip to Europe and North America. This was considered a highly significant foreign engagement for the “Land of the Rising Sun,” as it aimed not only to coordinate the agenda of the G7 ahead of the group’s Summit held in Hiroshima in May 2023 but also to solidify the new security strategy with key partners centred around Japan. The trip could shape Japan’s multi-dimensional strategic cooperation model (resembling the five petals of the cherry blossom) and gradually help the country achieve self-reliance in the fields of defence and security, thereby step-by-step detaching itself from the sphere of influence of the US.
The first destination of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio on his trip to Europe and also one of the most significant petals in the “Cherry blossom” was France. The Franco-Japanese relationship is considered a key axis that will help Japan strengthen three triangles – other “cherry blossom petals” - namely the artificial intelligence (AI) triangle of Japan, France, and Germany; the maritime security triangle of Japan, France, and India; and the naval triangle of Japan, France, and Australia. Therefore, France is regarded as an important partner that can help Japan expand cooperation with countries in Asia, Europe, and the Pacific. During the visit to France, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and President Emmanuel Macron agreed to enhance bilateral cooperation in various fields, including defence and security. The leaders of both countries also affirmed their commitment to elevate the “special relationship” between the two nations, strengthen security cooperation, promote a free and open Indo-Pacific strategy, expand security dialogue channels, and organise joint exercises between the Japan Self-Defence Forces and the French military in the South China Sea, etc.
Besides France, Italy and the United Kingdom are the two countries also chosen by Japan as partners in developing defence technology. Due to the urgent need to reduce research, development, and production costs for next-generation fighter aircraft (due to the depreciation of the yen, euro, and pound), the formation of the Japan-Italy-UK relationship triangle becomes a “petal” that will help Tokyo diversify its defence partners, thereby gradually reducing the exclusive influence of US defence industry corporations on Japan’s technological capability in the military sector. In Italy, Mr. Kishida Fumio and his counterpart agreed to elevate the relationship between the two countries to a strategic partnership; the two countries will establish a bilateral security dialogue channel in the “2+2” format between the foreign and defence ministers to enhance cooperation in defence and security. During Kishida’s visit to the United Kingdom, the leaders of both countries signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) - the most significant defence agreement ever signed between a European country and Japan. The agreement serves as a legal basis for accelerating cooperation in defence research and development, and technology transfer; and the transportation of weapons when the two countries conduct joint exercises and deploy forces on each other’s territories during humanitarian and relief operations. Japan, together with Italy and the UK, also reached an agreement to cooperate in the development of next-generation fighter aircraft by 2035. This is Japan’s first defence cooperation project with other countries that is not the US.
The final petal of the "Cherry blossom" is the North American region. During the visit to this region, the Prime Minister of Japan and his Canadian counterpart reaffirmed the strength of their strategic partnership and shared commitment to a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. They agreed to enhance cooperation in energy security and the development of new technologies and reached a consensus on the disarmament and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons at the G7 Summit. Besides Canada, the Japan-US relationship is also considered a pivotal axis in the “Cherry blossom”. In the US, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio received assurances from President Joe Biden regarding the US commitment to defend Japan under Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty. The leaders of both countries also agreed to strengthen cooperation in the development and effective utilisation of Japan’s counteroffensive capabilities and other defence capabilities. Washington also pledged to ensure the semiconductor supply chain and enhance cooperation with Tokyo in the nuclear field for energy security purposes.
In addition to the aforementioned activities, the Kishida Administration has taken steps to deepen security cooperation with Australia via the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and enhance maritime, logistics, intelligence sharing, and naval interoperability between the two countries in the region. These commitments serve as a bridge to further connect the Indo-Pacific region. Furthermore, Japan values defence and security cooperation with countries in Southeast Asia, especially ASEAN members. Notably, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio emphasised, “Vietnam is a special country with a strong affinity to Japan, and both countries are working towards a new phase of an in-depth and extensive Japan-Vietnam strategic partnership for peace, stability, and prosperity in Asia”.
The impacts
According to international experts, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s diplomatic visit to Europe and North America achieved success, as Japan gained consensus and support from G7 member states “for the success” of the G7 Summit. Through this trip, Japan and the participating countries exchanged views and reached common understandings on various important international issues, especially the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula and the construction of a free and open Indo-Pacific region. Particularly, the visit promoted bilateral relations between Japan and G7 countries in defence and security, thereby enabling Japan to complete its security strategy by diversifying defence and security cooperation with other nations and reducing its dependence on the US.
However, experts also believe that Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s efforts to enhance defence and security cooperation with G7 countries could draw these powers into the hotspots of the Asian region, and Japan’s role in leading NATO, a Cold War legacy, into the Asia-Pacific region, could cause “security instability” to the Asian-Pacific region and the world. Simultaneously, it could lead to increased tensions between Japan and its neighbouring countries, such as China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Russia.
MINH DUC – TIEN LUC