After days of intense negotiation, on July 14th 2015, Iran and the P5+1 reached a final comprehensive deal on Tehran nuclear program. This historic agreement has closed one of the most challenging files in international relations and had dramatic impacts on regional and global politics.
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A meeting between Iran and the P5+1 in Vienna (source: Internet) |
The deal on Tehran nuclear program includes three main points: Iran accepts to limit its nuclear program for at least one decade; sanctions on Iran will be lifted; and measures to control its nuclear program. According to the accord, Iran will not be forced to completely halt its nuclear program as what the West demanded in 2003. Instead, international community focuses on supervising and closely controlling Iran’s infrastructure in order to prevent Tehran from resuming its secret program to produce weapons of mass destruction.
The deal’s impacts on the Middle East and world situation
International analysts believe that to different extents, the new agreement would bring about significant strategic changes in the Middle East and the world.
As for the Middle East, the deal will help Iran be transparent in its nuclear program for peaceful purposes. Accordingly, it helps build confidence with regional countries, impact on the relations among the Middle East countries, more importantly prevent and come to put an end to nuclear proliferation in the region. This is one of the most effective measures to prevent and push back the risk of an arms race between Islamic nation of Iran governed by the Shia and other nations led by the Sunni in Persian Gulf region. Besides, when sanctions are lifted, Iran has chances to access resources of finance and investment from the outside, helping increasingly raise the country’s role and status in the region. Thus, it creates favorable condition for Iran to cooperate with countries to address regional issues; i.e. Iran could use its influence in Syria to seek for a ceasefire between the government’s forces and the rebel forces, paving the way for the establishment of a transitional government, or in cooperation with others to end hostilities in Yemen and to fight against the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS). Answering questions from press, Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that the country was ready to open new directions to cope with the development of violent extremism. He also said that in order to deal with the new challenge, it was necessary to have new approaches.
In another aspect, if regional countries become more cautious about Iran, and the regional tension increases, positive impacts made by the lifting of sanctions are not considerable. According to observers, in fact, the end of Teheran isolation may cause concerns from its neighbours because Iran will become stronger, challenging the influence of other Gulf States; thus, these states have to seek reassurances from the US. The relationship between Iran and Israel will be even more intense when the latter rejects any agreement on the former’s nuclear program. Therefore, the impact of the nuclear agreement will depend on political dynamics in Iran. Meanwhile, the conservative and nationalist forces view the agreement as a necessary tool to eliminate economic sanctions and strengthen Iran’s conventional military capabilities. This is a big challenge to Iran President Hassan Rouhani and the moderates in Teheran.
As for the world, the new agreement could lead to a breakthrough start for the normalization of US-Iranian relations that have been discontinued since 1980, after the the hostage crisis in the US Embassy in Tehran. That will help open a new chapter of public and equal cooperation between the two countries; on that basis, providing a positive chance to resolve Syria and Yemen crises and to push back IS troops. However, to realize that, the two sides have to overcome barriers, both at home and abroad, which could take years. Also, the lifting of sanctions will make Iran a potential petroleum and gas exporter. Teheran has the world’s second and fourth largest gas and petroleum reserves, and it produces and exports up to 3 million barrels per day; therefore, Iran will have a great impact on the world energy market, first and foremost on Europe’s market, diversifying sources of supply for the continent. The new deal also provides chances for foreign investment in Iran, particularly in oil exploitation. At present, corporations from Germany, France, and Russia have made plans to carry out surveys of Iran market. Airlines in many countries have quickly built air routes to Iran to meet the market’s increasing demands. On that basis, Iran will actively engage in projects of regional integration, such as Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and possibly be accepted as a member of the organization in the year 2016.
Alongside with impacts in geo-economic field, the new deal on Iran nuclear program has made impacts on the Europe’s geo-strategy, especially missile defence system plan of the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In the past, to justify the plan (coping with Russia’s rejection), the U.S. and NATO explained that the missile defence system in Europe mainly aimed at Iran’s nuclear warhead ballistic missiles, not at Russia. Now, that threat no longer exists, the “missile defence” plan deliberately built by the US is on the brink of failure.
To conclude, it is too early to verify the deal’s multi-dimension impacts on the region and the world. However, internationally, it proves that diplomatic and cooperative measures could help countries ease tensions and confrontation no matter how complicated these are. This is a good precedent for other “hot spots” in the world to be resolved by peaceful and non-violent means.
Assoc Prof, PhD Dong Xuan Tho