On 07 October 2023, the conflict between the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, and Israel broke out in the Gaza Strip and have had multiple huge consequences beyond the war zone to significantly affect regional and world security. That also makes the strategic competition among  major powers more complicated and unpredictable.

Causes of the conflict

According to international researchers, the Hamas - Israel conflict in the Gaza Strip on 07 October 2023 stemmed from various causes, including the direct one that Hamas forces attacking in retaliation for Israel’s brutal actions targeting Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem on 01 October 2023 as well as hostile activities of the Tel Aviv government in the West Bank region. In fact, over the past seven decades, the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis has always been smoldering and causing pain to the international community. Before this conflict broke out, Hamas and Israeli forces clashed four times in 2008, 2012, 2014, and 2021. Despite the United Nations Security Council’s resolution on the establishment of two separate Palestinian and Israeli states and the condemnation of the international community, Tel Aviv has never stopped using military power to suppress Palestinian uprisings as well as assert sovereignty in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. In recent years, although Israel has “adjusted” its policy from “confrontation” to “dialogue” in relations with Arab countries, it has not improved the situation, and conflicts between Israel and Palestine have been even more serious. Palestinian officials consider this a “sinister and dangerous” plot by Israel to divide countries in the Arab world and “prick” the Palestinian struggle for justice. Therefore, Israel’s actions on 01 October 2023 are considered “the final straw”, the reason for the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas to launch an attack on Israel. This attack also aims to help Arab countries realise the fact that accepting Israel’s security demands will not bring peace to the region and security in the Middle East and this place will remain unstable as long as the Palestinians are “outside” of the agreements. Hamas chose the time to launch the attack when the Tel Aviv government was deeply divided, causing the Israel Defence Forces, despite having an absolute advantage in all aspects, surprised and suffered many losses.

Researchers believe that “generational” ethnic and religious hatred originating from sovereignty disputes over the land that both Israel and Palestine consider “sacred” and left by their ancestors is the root cause of bloody conflicts. Another reason is the “inability” of the international community to find an effective solution to resolve this conflict. After the attack broke out, with the goal of “wiping out Hamas”, Israel launched an all-out military campaign of retaliation, making the conflict fierce and unpredictable and causing multiple huge consequences beyond the war zone in the Gaza Strip with multi-dimensional impacts, both immediate and long-term, on regional and global security.

Pushing the Middle East into a spiral of conflict, making the peace process deadlocked

With all-out attacks in the air, at sea, and on land, Israel’s Operation “Iron Swords” bloodily massacred many Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip, causing outrage in the international community and the Arab world. Many Muslim armed groups in the region have declared they will support Hamas in waging “jihad” against Israel. Therefore, fighting not only takes place fiercely in the Gaza Strip but is also at risk of spreading to many other areas, pushing the Middle East into a spiral of conflict and instability. In the West Bank, fighting raged between Palestinian armed groups and Israeli soldiers. At the Israel-Lebanon border, fighting between Hezbollah forces and the Israel Defence Forces also took place fiercely, with Hezbollah leaders also declaring their readiness to open a new front against Israel when the time is ripe. On the Israel-Syria border, pro-Hamas armed groups also regularly launch raids on Israeli garrisons. Houthi forces in Yemen also carried out many attacks with missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles on Israeli territory and on American and Israeli vessels  in the Red Sea. In Syria and Iraq, armed groups believed to be backed by Iran have also increased the frequency of bomb and missile attacks on US military bases. Many military experts believe that the Hamas - Israel conflict continues to be tense and prolonged, with the risk of spreading and attracting direct intervention from major powers, which will cause division and endanger regional security.

The conflict upset the strategic calculations of the US, Israel, and many Arab countries in the Middle East

First, the conflict caused the plan (initiated by the US) to bring Israel to “peaceful coexistence” with the Arab world to collapse. After Israel conducted a military campaign in the Gaza Strip, the Saudi Arabian government announced an indefinite suspension of the process of normalising relations with this country. United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Morocco also announced that they would review the agreements to normalise relations signed with Israel. America’s Arab allies, such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, simultaneously condemned Israel’s killing of Palestinian civilians as “unacceptable” and demanded the country to immediately stop its attack on the Gaza Strip. This is said to be a “fatal blow” to the effort of bringing Israel closer to the Arab world, as well as the establishment of a regional security structure according to US intentions.

Next, the agreements reached in the US’s effort to normalise relations with Iran also “disintegrated” when Washington continuously threatened to increase “tough” sanctions on Tehran for its actions have been believed that Iran supports armed groups against Israel. In addition, publicly supporting Israel’s military campaign in Gaza also caused relations between the United States and countries in the Middle East to plummet, and Washington’s reputation seriously declined. In other words, the US is “making it difficult for itself” to establish a new structure for security in the Middle East and is unintentionally creating “favourable” conditions for Russia and China to enhance their position and expand their influence in this important area, especially their roles in mediating a ceasefire agreement to end the conflict.

According to analysts, the Hamas - Israel conflict not only causes instability in the region, but what is worrying is also that the conflict is deepening the division and hatred between Arabs, Muslims, and Jewish. This is also the core reason why the Middle East will still be the world’s “flashpoint”, and the peace process has not found a way out.

Increased threats to global security

After the conflict broke out, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned that the world is facing the risk of a serious collapse of the humanitarian system, and the impacts of the Hamas - Israel conflict on Palestinians are extremely huge and difficult to overcome in a short time. According to the statistics from the Gaza Health Authority, by the end of December 2023, as many as 21,000 Palestinians were killed, more than 54,000 people were injured, and more than 1 million people fell into a situation where they were in dire need of rescue and emergency humanitarian aids. This is also the first time in decades that the Secretary General of the United Nations has had to invoke Article 99 of the United Nations Charter to call on the United Nations Security Council to act immediately and resolutely to prevent disasters for Palestinians in Gaza. On 22 December 2023, the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution No.2720, requesting all parties to allow and facilitate the immediate, safe, and unhindered provision of humanitarian assistance on a large scale to the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip. However, Resolution 2720 is unlikely to be effective when Israel continuously takes tough moves toward the conflict.

Besides, conflicts also cause other serious impacts on global security. Israel’s anti-Palestinian activities in the Gaza Strip are condemned as “war crimes” that spark a wave of “anti-Semitism”, threatening the security of Jewish communities in many countries around the world. In the US, UK, France, Germany, and many Western countries, police have had to increase security at Jewish synagogues and schools, especially when pro-Palestinian protests continuously broke out. On the Red Sea, Muslim Houthi forces organised many raids on ships they believed belonged to Israel or had links to this country, causing a vital trade route accounting for more than 15% of global trade to stall. Houthi fighters even attacked US warships and transport ships of some Western countries, causing maritime security in the Red Sea to be so seriously affected that the US and some other countries must urgently form an alliance and launch air strikes on Houthi bases to neutralise its potential attacks and protect the safety of this maritime route. Many international experts are concerned that by stopping trade in the Red Sea, the Houthi forces are creating a new front line, to the disadvantage of the US and Israel, and could cause an international maritime crisis, causing a risk of disrupting supply chains, pushing up oil prices and inflation.

In addition, conflicts also make the strategic competition among major powers more complicated and unpredictable. For the US, in recent years, President Joe Biden’s administration has limited direct intervention in the Middle East region to focus on the “pivot” strategy to the Indo-Pacific to curb the influence of China. To achieve this goal, the US has organised the construction of the Eastern corridor connecting India with the Arab Gulf countries and the Northern corridor connecting the Gulf countries with Europe through Jordan and Israel. Along with that, Washington also established a triangular economic corridor for India, the Middle East, and Europe. However, the Hamas - Israel conflict has hindered these US plans. Therefore, to balance resources while maintaining the role of restraining conflicts in the Middle East, controlling conflicts in Ukraine, and successfully “pivotting” to the Indo-Pacific will be a crux of the matter  for President Joe Biden’s administration, especially when the US presidential election is approaching. For Russia, the fact that the US must invest greater resources in the conflict in the Middle East - an unwanted strategic setback, will certainly help the country somewhat reduce pressure in the special military campaign in Ukraine. As for China, this country will have more advantages in implementing its strategy for the Asia-Pacific region.

It can be seen that the longer the Hamas - Israel conflict lasts, the more unpredictable consequences it will have for regional and world security, and the people who will suffer the biggest and worst consequences are none other than the Palestinians and Israelis themselves. International public opinion wants relevant parties to soon end and resolve conflicts on the basis of the United Nations Charter, respecting each other, finding appropriate solutions together, and building the Middle East into a region of peace, stability, and development.

MINH DUC - DUC MANH