Indo-Pacific is regarded as a region of vital significance in the global geopolitical architecture in the 21st century. Therefore, it always witnesses fierce competition among great powers, which exerts considerable influence on regional and global security and causes deep concerns to international community.
Overall assessment of great powers’ Indo-Pacific strategies reveals that despite their different expression, all great powers put the Indo-Pacific at the heart of global security and interests of each country. Given their strategic objectives, most great powers opt to avoid direct confrontation, attach importance to “soft power” and national overall power, and promote alignment through commitments, cooperative relations, and bilateral, multilateral engagements, thus strengthening their positions, expanding influence, and gain the upper hand in rivalry and containment of their adversaries. Accordingly, strategic competition among great powers in Indo-Pacific is a unique issue characterised by cooperation, deterrence, and containment.
Competition for influence through linkages and cooperation initiatives
Cooperation for development in politics, economics, trade, finance, science and technology, military, etc., with other countries and regional organisations is both an inevitable trend and the most effective means that enables great powers to engage and compete for influence in Indo-Pacific. According to some analysts, China considers Indo-Pacific a region where it has core interests to materialise its objectives. Beijing, therefore, seeks to play a leading role in bilateral, multilateral cooperation mechanisms in Indo-Pacific region. Accordingly, China proposes and carries out a series of big investment projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Global Development Initiative (GDI), Maritime Silk Road (MSR), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and so forth. China also promotes neighbourhood diplomacy with countries and regional organisations through community of shared destiny, thereby establishing a political, economic ecosystem with far-reaching influence in Indo-Pacific.
When implementing its Pivot to Asia, the United States regards Indo-Pacific as the top priority in terms of security and diplomacy in the 21st century. Thus, it leverages its position as the global superpower to establish and expand cooperative relations. Of note, the United States emphasises the need for strengthening alliances and traditional partners while broadening linkages with organisations in the region to pursue its strategic goals. It also seeks to shape mechanisms, institutions, rules, etc., to set up coalitions of like-minded partners to deter and contain its adversaries while maintaining its dominance in Indo-Pacific region. More importantly, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity is said to be an ambitious project which can compete with China’s BRI. Moreover, the United States also takes advantage of its superiority in high technology, artificial intelligence, and semiconductor technology to assert its leading role in Indo-Pacific.
As for the European Union (EU), Indo-Pacific is considered an important geopolitical, geoeconomic region to EU’s position and future development. Besides promoting connectivity with the United States, EU also exploits its advantages of green technology, circular economy, digital economy, renewable energy, etc., to engage and foster long-term cooperative relations to secure its strategic goals and interests in Indo-Pacific. EU’s initiatives such as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Global Gateway, etc., draw growing attention of many countries and regional organisations.
Despite being largely driven by the conflict in Ukraine, Russia also attaches importance to consolidation and strengthening of its cooperative relations with partners in Indo-Pacific. It participates and improves the position and role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), BRICS, Eurasian Economic Union, and so on. Russia has gradually overcome embargoes and punishments imposed by the United States and Western countries through promoting its influence and image as a friendly partner and responsible member for the development of Indo-Pacific region.
Regarding Japan, this country has also invested hundreds of billions of US dollars in official development assistance (ODA) and Asia Africa Growth Corridor, etc., thereby enhancing its position as a great power in Indo-Pacific region. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) consistently pursues neutrality to firmly preserve its identity and role as a “coordination centre” in Southeast Asia and Indo-Pacific through dialogue mechanisms such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN-Pluses, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and so forth.
According to analysts, given their strategic objectives, great powers, particularly the United States and China, have gained a high position and considerable influence in Indo-Pacific. Recent statistics show that China is the leading trading partner while the United States is the biggest investor in the region. Nevertheless, sometimes American prestige and influence are on the decrease because of its double standards in politics, democracy, and human rights. Furthermore, the United States has not acceded to RCEP and CPTPP, thus its leading role in the Indo-Pacific economic architecture is also affected.
Formation of security, military alliances and coalitions to deter and deny adversaries
In the context of a deeply fragmented world, security strategies of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) all identify Russia as the immediate, biggest opponent and China as the systemic, fundamental, long-term opponent. Many experts believe that if the conflict in Ukraine pushes the United States/NATO and Russia to red lines and a total confrontation, the United States and its allies are implementing military measures vigorously to deter and contain China in Indo-Pacific. Recently, although US-China security, military dialogue channels have been maintained, the United States still intensifies defence, security relations with allies and traditional partners and establishes minilateral groupings to counter China such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue among Australia, India, Japan, and the United States (QUAD), Trilateral Security Partnership among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States (AUKUS), the United States-Japan-South Korea alliance, and so forth. The United States also believes that China is militarising the South China Sea, thus stepping up the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI), modernising military bases in Hawaii and Guam, conducting joint patrols to ensure freedom of navigation and overflight, and holding joint exercises to practise responding to contingencies in Indo-Pacific waters. According to analysts, operations of the United States aim to set up a common, unified front to gain the upper hand over adversaries so that it can counter potential threats and defend its own security and interests and allies in the region.
Experts argue that to cope with the United States’ military schemes, China should concentrate on building a strong “blue navy” capable of meeting strategic requirements and promoting bilateral and multilateral defence, security relations with countries, including Russia. Apart from stepping up the BRI and the MSR, Beijing should attach importance to building of dual-use structures at sea, which both serve economic development and enhance control of sea lines of communication as well as naval chokepoints in Indo-Pacific.
Together with the United States and China, some great powers also emphasise the need for involvement in regional hot spots such as the Taiwan Strait, Korean Peninsula, East China Sea, South China Sea, etc., with a view to deterring, denying, and containing opponents. Those moves make the Indo-Pacific more complex and unforeseeable.
Implications for the region and the world
According to analysts, strategic competition among great powers in Indo-Pacific has been exerting multidimensional influences on the region and the world. First, alignment and strategic rivalry among great powers will present opportunities for countries in the region to promote economic development, strengthening of defence, security capabilities, and military modernisation. More importantly, developing countries may look for shortcuts to advancements in science and technology. Nevertheless, this also poses many risks and challenges to security and development in the region. The developing countries may become great powers’ markets, dependent on great powers in economic, political, security terms, and loss of independence and resilience.
Many experts believe that the initiatives and commitments are great powers’ ways to get involved and compete for influence in the region after all, which potentially undermine existing multilateral cooperation mechanisms. Additionally, some great powers’ alignment also imposes considerable pressure on countries and regional organisations, thus preventing them from formulating effective policies and tackling important international issues. Use of military deterrence without control would lead to clashes, conflicts, and wars, destabilising the region and the world.
In the context of evolving traditional and nontraditional security challenges, countries and regional organisations, particularly the great powers, are expected to intensify cooperation on the basis of international law, respect for independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of each country, equality, and mutual benefit, striving for building Indo-Pacific into a region of peace, stability, and prosperity.
MINH DUC