After several postponements due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Tenth Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was held from 1^st to 26^th August 2022 in New York, the U.S. Due to disagreements among member countries, especially between the U.S and Russia regarding the crisis in Ukraine, the Review Conference was unable to adopt a joint statement. However, this Conference is still of paramount importance in preventing the global proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Unprecedented risk of nuclear war since the Cold War

According to the assessments of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the world is facing the risk of a new nuclear arms race, even an unprecedented one. While many nuclear states continue to spend unjustly large sums of money to develop weapons of mass destruction, the majority of countries in the world support a complete ban on nuclear weapons and argue that those funds should be used to address other security challenges such as the Covid-19 pandemic. With the current increase in the rate of spending on nuclear weapons, the global stockpile of nuclear warheads has not only increased in quantity but has also been improved toward practical use. According to SIPRI, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S, along with some countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), are trying to transfer modern weapons to the Kiev government. According to Russian leaders and some Western analysts, the U.S and NATO are increasingly getting involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict with unprecedented moves since the end of World War II. Meanwhile, the U.S unilaterally withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) to build a missile interceptor system on the territory of NATO allies in Europe aiming at targets on Russian territory. In response, Russia claimed that it would use all available means to defend its national sovereignty. Having anticipated the risk of NATO intervention in Ukraine, just 3 days after launching a special military operation, on 2^nd February 2022, President Vladimir Putin ordered the transfer of Russia’s nuclear deterrent force into an alert state to deter its enemies.

Previously, on 15^th September 2021, U.S President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and Australian Prime Scott Morrison issued a joint statement on the establishment of a Tripartite Security Partnership Agreement (AUKUS), under which the U.S’ and UK’s technology to build nuclear submarines will be transferred to Australia. In 2022, the U.S aggressively promoted the implementation of the AUKUS Agreement, which may pose the risk of the emergence of a new clear power in Asia. In a positive development, according to SIPRI’s report, 50 countries have signed and ratified the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) effective from 22^nd January 2021; the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the U.S and Russia was extended for another 5 years until 5^th February 2026; the U.S began negotiations with Tehran to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to implement the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. On 3^rd January 2021, the world’s five leading nuclear powers and permanent members of the UN Security Council, including the U.S, Russia, China, the UK, and France signed the Joint Declaration, under which they committed to preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the risk of nuclear war, affirming that no country can win a nuclear war and not let this war happen.

However, SIPRI President and former Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said “Despite some remarkable achievements in nuclear weapons control and disarmament, the risk of a nuclear war breaking out appears to be higher than at any time since the Cold War. The relations among the world’s great powers have clearly deteriorated at a time when humanity is faced with a series of common and urgent challenges that can only be resolved through joint international cooperation efforts”.

Measures to reduce the risk of nuclear proliferation

Addressing at this year’s NPT Review Conference, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said “This conference takes place at a time when the nuclear threat is highest since the Cold War. Only one misunderstanding or miscalculation can cause humanity to be destroyed by nuclear weapons”. Therefore, the 2022 NPT Review Conference focused on measures to reduce the risk of nuclear proliferation.

As a signatory to the NPT, Russia faced a series of criticisms about the growing role of nuclear weapons in Moscow’s policy at this Conference.  The Russian representative affirmed that its policy had been published openly and transparently. Moscow will only use nuclear weapons for defensive and self-defence purposes once its national sovereignty is threatened. The Russian representative emphasised that Moscow didn’t actively withdraw from international treaties on the limitation of nuclear weapons, such as ABM or INF. Accordingly, Russia proposed an initiative to establish a solid legal foundation to strengthen the mechanism of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Additionally, Russia and China also proposed a Joint Statement demanding the U.S to re-join the JCPOA, from which former U.S President Donald Trump withdrew in 2018. From Russia’s viewpoint, the JCPOA is the only political measure to implement the P5+1 Agreement with Iran on Tehran’s nuclear programme and to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Regarding the role of the five nuclear powers and members of the UN Security Council, many delegates to the Conference suggested that the nuclear powers should take the initiative in forming a united front of all nuclear states in discussions of disarmament measures. To resolve the conflict between the G3 (the U.S, the UK, and France) and the G2 (Russia and China), Russia believes the U.S is the root of conflicts and disagreements in the G5 because Washington unilaterally withdrew from some nuclear treaties and agreements, such as ABM, INF, the Open Skies Treaty, and JCPOA.

At the Conference, the 16 countries participating in the Stockholm Initiative without nuclear weapons (Korea, Japan, Germany, Canada, Indonesia, etc.) sought a common stance on nuclear disarmament and are ready to establish constructive cooperation with nuclear states, primarily to reduce tensions on the Korean Peninsula caused by Pyongyang’s nuclear programme. They also suggested that the nuclear powers change the doctrine of “nuclear pre-emptive strike”. Regarding AUKUS, delegates said that this alliance had a negative impact on the non-proliferation mechanism of nuclear weapons as well as international security, posing the risk of forming military infrastructure of nuclear states in non-nuclear states, which increases the level of international instability and runs counter to the goal of reducing nuclear arsenals.

With regard to the reduction of nuclear arsenals, this year’s draft Joint Statement of the NPT Review Conference requires nuclear states to report the number, types, and conditions of warheads and means of transport. Measures have been taken to reduce the role and importance of nuclear weapons in the concepts, doctrines, and strategies of military development and security assurance, and to reduce the risk of unintentional, illegal, and random uses of nuclear weapons, lowering combat readiness level and operational status of nuclear weapon systems, etc. To reduce the risk of nuclear conflict in Europe, representatives of many non-Western countries said that the U.S placement of nuclear weapons on the territory of NATO allies is a violation of the NPT’s provisions. Meanwhile, the U.S continued to place nuclear weapons on the territory of non-nuclear states in Europe, arguing that such action is not contrary to the NPT.

The Conference also assessed that the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty has been ineffective though it has existed for 25 years and is posing a real threat to the non-proliferation mechanism and undermines the disarmament pillar of the NPT, mainly because the U.S has not ratified this Treaty. Representatives of many countries said that the U.S action was wrong because the CTBT meets the interests of disarmament and aims at a safer world. Regarding the measures for the abolition of nuclear weapons under the TPNW Treaty, this topic was controversial at this NPT Review Conference. Supporters of TPNW emphasised the significance of this treaty for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament and as a complementary measure for the NPT. Meanwhile, some nuclear states opposed the TPNW, arguing that the treaty is impractical in the current context. Therefore, they are not ready for serious dialogues with non-nuclear states.

Regarding the operating mechanism of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), this year’s NPT Review Conference conducted discussions in two directions. In the first direction, some countries, led by the U.S, continue to assert that the NPT Additional Protocol extending the IAEA’s powers to access the nuclear programmes of countries is the “new standard” in the field of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. On the contrary, in the second direction, some non-nuclear states objected to including the Additional Protocol in the final instrument and emphasised that joining the Additional Protocol was completely voluntary and not mandatory.

Due to various contradictions and disagreements, this year’s NPT Review Conference still has numerous limitations as it ended without reaching a Joint Statement. However, the NPT remains in force and is the foundation of the international security architecture. For more than 50 years, the NPT has significantly reduced the risk of nuclear proliferation. Therefore, one of the most important tasks in this context is that the five nuclear powers commit themselves not let any conflict between nuclear states happen.

Senior Colonel LE THE MAU