In June 2023, Germany released the first-ever National Security Strategy (NSS) since the World War II with a view to shaping a comprehensive, integrated security architecture in the evolving global, regional, complex situations. Thus, the context, fundamental contents, and prospects of the strategy are matters of great concern for the international community.

Strategic context

German policymakers believe that the security environment in Europe and the world in past few years has witnessed profound changes as a result of strategic competition among major powers, disputes over territorial sovereignty between nations, and ethnic, religious conflicts, especially the on-going conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It is within this context that Germany has to confront both traditional and nontraditional security challenges, in which terrorism, extremism, organised crime, cyberattack, and supply change disruption are on the rise. Consequently, the Chancellor Olaf Scholz administration is regarded as a pioneer when proposing new viewpoints on security and resolving to issue a complete, basic national security strategy to meet requirements of protecting national security and interests from upheavals of regional and global situations. In fact, the Chancellor Olaf Scholz administration had embarked on drafting this strategy since the end of 2021 with the participation of ministries and branches concerned. After preparation time, with the involvement of experts and people nationwide, the Government of Germany officially released a new NSS on June 14th, 2023. This is the first-ever strategy of Germany since World War II. The strategy is considered a fully-fledged one because administrations of the predecessors issued only security policies. According to Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the new NSS demonstrates unity of approach to traditional and nontraditional security threats both at home and abroad. The strategy will enable Germany to bring about a turning point in dealing with security issues in Europe, which are in complete disorder as a result of Russia-Ukraine conflict. The strategy also helps this country to address crises and respond to challenges in order to protect national security and interests as well as values of Germany.

Fundamental contents of the strategy

According to international analysts, the new NSS of Germany aims to mobilise every resources to safeguard its national interests; serve as a starting point for the government to coordinate a nonstop process of interaction between all state levels in order to strengthen national security in the long term. The main priorities are to ensure military security, economic security, and safety of people’s life; protect and bring into play values of Germany. The strategy ascertains that Germany is a populous country and a big economy in the region. It is situated at the heart of Europe, thus having a special responsibility for security, peace, stability, prosperity, and sustainable use of natural resources of the “Old Continent”. The Chancellor Olaf Scholz administration is also committed to leveraging Germany’s role as a major power in establishing a new world order, which is premised on the principle of respecting for international law, the Charter of the United Nations, the sovereign equality of states, the prohibition on the threat or use of force, the right of all peoples to self-determination, and universal human rights.

Additionally, the strategy emphases security in a broader term, namely integrated security, holistic security, and comprehensive security. Accordingly, national security is not simply confined in diplomatic and military dimensions as previously coined, but is broadened to include economy, energy, technology, or health. Guarantee of security in these fields will contribute to enhanced common security. Moreover, the strategy specifies that overall strength of all resources, including that of democratic institutions, economy, and social solidarity, is a fundamental guarantee of security of the country.

The strategy sets out three pillars namely defence capabilities, adaptation, and sustainability. First of all, the strategy determines that defence capabilities are to strive for active, robust defence with enhanced deterrence. To achieve this goal, the Chancellor Olaf Scholz administration is committed to increasing defence spending from 1.5% of GDP to 2% in 2024; acquiring modern weapons and equipment to make German military a powerful one in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Berlin also pledges to play a vital role in promoting defence industry in Europe and ensuring a harmony of EU rules on control of arms exports. Furthermore, the strategy mentions civil preparedness and protection, of which importance is attached to protection of critical infrastructure, cyber capabilities, increased counter-espionage, counter-sabotage, and cyber defence. Regarding adaptation and resilience, Germany will concentrate on improving national capabilities and those of allies to protect freedom and democracy; reducing dependence on partners; diversifying supply chains; and encouraging establishment of strategic reserves. As for sustainability, the strategy aims to promote investment in protecting critical infrastructure, cyber capabilities, effective diplomacy, and response to climate change, energy crisis, food security, pandemics, and so forth.

In addition to three pillars, the strategy ascertains that security of Germany is indispensable to that of its allies and partners. Germany’s commitment to NATO and EU remain unshakeable and NATO is an important element for ensuring active and proactive security. Berlin is committed to be an active and responsible member of the transatlantic alliance, which aims to achieve a united Europe in peace and freedom. The Federal Government of Germany, therefore, expects EU to continue to maintain security and sovereignty of the bloc in many years to come. Berlin will increase its efforts to uphold the global arms-control architecture, nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. The strategy specifies that the transatlantic alliance must have capabilities and resolve to address all military threats ranging from nuclear weapons, cyber defence to threats to the space systems.

Regarding ties with major powers, allies, and partners, Germany categorises France as a neighbouring country with close friendship and the United States as a country on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, with which it fosters close ties and partnership. As far as Russia is concerned, Berlin regards this as the most significant threat to peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic area. Russia’s military operations in Ukraine are the cause of defence, security, energy, and food instability in the area. Nevertheless, Germany supports strategic risk reduction and uphold emergency communication channels in political, military spheres between Russia and NATO. Berlin does not wish to confront or clash with Moscow. China is the biggest trading partner of Germany. The strategy determines that China is a partner, competitor, and systemic rival. Consequently, although Germany has not agreed with China about some aspects, it still considers China a partner without whom many of the most pressing global challenges cannot be resolved.

Prospects of the Strategy

Germany’s new NSS is basically welcomed and appreciated by many nations, especially its allies and partners, because it has shown Germany’s commitments to security, peace, and stability of the “Old Continent,” an area suffering from instability since the end of World War II. Many experts believe that the strategy is a declaration of Germany’s efforts to re-establish its global position.

Nevertheless, some other experts argue that the newly released 76-page document of the Chancellor Olaf Scholz administration has some limitations when it fails to put forth concrete measures to complete political goals. The strategy does not mention the foundation of the national security council, which is an important agency to give advice on response to strategic security issues; does not truly touch upon Germany’s international role in resolving global issues in the Arctic or outer space; does not display a linkage between ends, ways, and means, most notably the budget for fulfilling the goals.

According to some recent assessments, German military in 2022 was extremely alarming when only 30% of the naval vessels were operationally capable. Many of its war planes were unable to perform their functions. Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius claims that arms procurement needs to be further stepped up because time is the top priority currently and the immediate effect is to provide the military with new weapons and equipment as soon as possible. To achieve military modernisation as stipulated by the strategy, the EUR 100 billion special fund approved by the Federal Government of Germany in February 2022 is not enough. He proposes an increase in defence spending from EUR 50 billion to EUR 60 billion since 2024. Germany’s Minister of Finance Christian Lindner supports a 2% increase in defence spending but warns that the increase will cause a financial burden, which forces the Government to reduce its spending on some other fields or raise taxes. Friedrich Merz, the opposition leader, criticises that the new NSS has many weaknesses; is not strategically appropriate and meaningless. According to the Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov, that Berlin categorises Moscow as a major threat in its national security strategy is an action going against Berlin’s logic and interests. Some experts also argue that Germany’s strategy for dealing with China is not new. The strategy, however, does not fully evaluate Berlin’s interests in economic relations and cooperation with Beijing and lacks concrete directions for the relationship between Germany and China in the coming time.

International analysts believe that the aforementioned difficulties can be barriers that test the Chancellor Olaf Scholz administration’s willpower and resolve to carry out the strategy. Consequently, prospects for Germany’s new NSS remain an open question.

MINH DUC and THE HIEP