On 4 April 2023, Finland’s flag was hoisted at NATO Headquarters, marking the formal end of this Nordic nation’s neutrality to become the 31st member of NATO. Therefore, the reasons behind Finland’s accession to this alliance as well as its implications for regional and global security are issues of significant international concern.
The period of neutrality
Following the conflict with the Soviet Union from November 1939 to March 1940 at the Karelia border, Finland changed to its approach, prioritising stability in relations and avoiding provocation towards Moscow. Since then, Finland has pursued a policy of neutrality despite pressures from both the Soviet Union and Western countries. Under the policy of neutrality, Finland abstained from joining any alliances, organisations, or military institutions of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the European Union (EU), and the Warsaw Pact. It only focused on bolstering its military strength, enhancing defence capabilities, and pursuing a neutral foreign policy, including military matters. Apart from deploying forces for UN peacekeeping missions, Finland hardly engaged in international military activities. After the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, NATO intensified its expansion towards the East by admitting new members, including several former members of the Soviet Union. However, Finland, partly due to its neutrality and partly because of the eased threat along its Eastern border, still desired to maintain good relations with Moscow and did not declare any interest in joining NATO. Despite not participating in military alliances, Finland has actively pursued international cooperation, particularly by expanding cooperation with the United States and Sweden. Besides, it has selectively engaged in several NATO cooperation frameworks, such as the partnership for peace.
The period from 1995 to 2022 is considered a “transition period” in Finland’s neutrality, with a significant milestone being its accession to the EU in 1995. During the negotiation of the Lisbon Treaty with the EU, Helsinki showed hesitation in including provisions allowing EU member states to provide, aid, and assist in case of armed attack because it feared that such binding commitments to security might affect its neutral stance. However, Finland eventually accepted these provisions. Since then, Finland has more actively participated in activities outside its territory. In 1997, Finland released its Defence White Paper, which mentioned its support for developing interactive capabilities with partners to address international crises. This provided a critical basis for Finland to enhance cooperation with the US and Sweden, promote trilateral relationships between Finland, Sweden, and the US and between Finland, Norway, and Sweden, procure military equipment from NATO member countries (such as the F-35 fighter jets from the US), and participating in peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan and Kosovo.
In 2014, when the Russia – Ukraine conflict broke out, cooperation between Finland and NATO entered a new phase. In September 2014, the two parties signed a memorandum of understanding stating that Finland allows NATO to conduct joint exercises on its territory while NATO can provide military aid in case Finland faces disasters or security threats. Researchers argue that although Finland did not join NATO, it regarded this alliance as an important security partner, and the two parties have built a relatively close cooperative relationship.
The reasons for this historical decision
After Russia launched the “special military operation” in Ukraine, the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs issued a report on the international security environment on 13 April 2022, stating that Russia’s action had completely altered the security environment in Europe and that Russia posed a significant security threat to Finland. This is the clearest indication that Finland abandoned its policy of neutrality, and it also served as a sign that the country would draw closer to NATO.
According to military researchers, the Russia - Ukraine conflict has revealed limitations and shortcomings for countries not affiliated with NATO. First, there are constraints regarding military aid. Despite NATO’s active support for Ukraine through various means, including supplying weapons and training its army, military aid has yet to meet Ukraine’s expectations and has not produced a breakthrough on the battlefield. Second, there are limitations concerning the nuclear umbrella. Although Russia has not deployed nuclear weapons in the conflict with Ukraine, the possibility of Russia using such weapons cannot be completely ruled out. Therefore, Finland is concerned that facing a nuclear power like Russia could lead to severe and indisputable consequences. Consequently, since the outbreak of the conflict, several Finnish officials have expressed concern about the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons. According to Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Havisto, this concern is one of the driving factors for Finland’s accession to NATO in September 2022.
Although this is not the first time Russia has conducted military campaigns in Ukraine, the scale and nature of this conflict have significantly impacted both the people and the cabinet of Finland. According to surveys conducted in this country, the cautious attitude towards NATO, maintained for decades, has dramatically decreased, leading to a sharp rise in support for Finland joining this alliance. Survey results from late February 2022 indicated that 50% of Finns supported NATO membership; however, by early May 2022, this figure had surged to 75%. Finnish political parties also changed their stance towards a quick accession to NATO, with diminishing concerns about upsetting the strategic balance in relations with Russia. Although the Centre Party and the Finnish Party adjusted their perspectives, the Left Alliance (the staunchest opponent of NATO membership), led by Li Anderson, emphasised the need for serious deliberations and a reassessment of NATO accession possibilities. Finnish leaders, including President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin, supported NATO membership, believing that the conflict in Ukraine has disrupted all security and foreign policy strategies that Finland had maintained for decades. As a result, preparations for the NATO assession process were accelerated and carefully planned by Helsinki. In addition to consulting with and securing security assurances from NATO, Finland also persuaded Sweden to join NATO. Therefore, this process was remarkably swift, taking just over ten months from application to becoming a full member. Official NATO membership also signified an end to Finland’s neutrality period that lasted for more than 80 years.
Researchers argue that the primary reason for Finland abandoning its neutrality to join NATO stems from Russia’s implementation of the “special military operation” in Ukraine. However, the underlying reason lies in the historically uneasy relationship between Finland and Russia, along with the dynamics in Europe threatening the security and stability of this Nordic country.
Implications on the region and the world
According to international research experts, Finland’s decision to join NATO despite Russia’s warnings has had significant impacts on both the regional and global security environments.
For NATO and Europe, Finland’s accession to NATO has altered the security landscape in Europe and significantly bolstered NATO’s military capabilities. Regarding geopolitics, after Finland became a full member of NATO, the length of the land border between NATO and Russia doubled, as Finland shares a 1,300-kilometre border with Russia. In terms of military matters, the presence of Finland has provided the world’s largest military alliance with a substantial, well-invested military force. According to the Global Firepower Index, Finland ranks 51st in the world in terms of military strength, with its military forces rated as the most powerful among NATO members in Europe (with 1,500 artillery guns), along with thousands of armoured vehicles, 239 tanks, 55 F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets (to be replaced by 64 F-35 from 2026). Additionally, Finland’s defence expenditure exceeds 2% of its GDP, meeting NATO’s targets for member countries.
For the Baltic region, Finland’s accession to NATO will dramatically change the security dynamics of the Baltic countries as NATO’s presence not only strengthens and reorganises defence forces in Northern Europe and the Baltic region but also serves as a deterrence against potential aggression from other countries towards this region. Moreover, Finland and Sweden have coastlines covering almost the entire northern Baltic Sea. Therefore, the participation of these two Nordic countries helps NATO “close off” control over the Baltic Sea, hence exerting pressure on the city of St. Petersburg and the detached territory of Kaliningrad (located within Europe) of Russia.
For Russia, Finland’s NATO membership, or in other words, NATO achieving the goal of approaching Russia’s borders, continues to deepen the rift between Russia and the West, increasing the risk of Russia taking retaliatory actions in the future, thus potentially escalating the arms race and even leading to a nuclear arms race between Russia and Western countries. According to some experts, Russia resorts to drawing closer to China to counterbalance NATO’s expansion. In 2022, the two countries issued a statement to establish a “no limits” partnership that marks the beginning of a new phase of cooperation. The strategic competition between the two sides, the US and the West and Russia and China, is intensifying, with all parties increasing their attraction, consolidating their forces, and seeking and enhancing cooperation with new partners. This not only presents opportunities for countries in the region but also creates significant pressure regarding “taking sides” or at least balancing relationships.
Notably, since April 15, 2024, Finland restricted the movement of ships and boats along the Saimaa Canal and indefinitely closed two border checkpoints along the border with Russia. This action could potentially have negative consequences for regional security and stability. Therefore, the international community hopes that Finland’s accession to NATO, whatever its purpose may be, and subsequent actions by Helsinki, will not further disrupt the security and peace of the region and the world, especially amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, with an uncertain, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Dr. NGUYEN HONG QUANG, Deputy Director of the Americas Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs