Thanks to its geographical feature, rapid economic development, East Asia is now the most dynamic region in the world. However, various contradictions intertwined with potential risks of conflicts still remain in the region. Thus, research on shifts in its geopolitical situation also draws attention of the international community.

Being impacted by external and internal factors, in recent years, East Asian countries have been engaging in increasingly intense competitions and disputes over one another’s rights and interests. North Korea’s nuclear program, disputes in the East China Sea and the East Sea, non-traditional security challenges, such as energy security, terrorism, natural disasters, trans-national crime, and so on, have been making profound impacts on the region’s geopolitical situation.

China, a dominant power in the region, is rising to a global power

The 18^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China set the strategic objectives: per capita income in China by 2020 will be 4 times as much as that in 2000; its military will be built to meet the most modern standards as the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s statement: “When in need, the army will be present, able to fight right after being mobilized, and win the war afterwards”. This is seen as an advancement in China’s viewpoints on its military after the Persian Gulf War 1991 with the aim of “being combat ready to win a high-tech local war”. Lately, China has had aggressive moves towards the region, such as: in 2013 unilaterally setting up the Air Defence Identification Zone in the East China Sea which covers the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, in May, 2014 brazenly and illegally placing an oil rig in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone and continental shelf, reclaiming its territory with the so-called “nine-dash line” covering 80% of the East Sea, which seriously violates the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea 1982, and so on. That is viewed as one of the greatest geographical shifts with profound and comprehensive impacts on the globe and region.

Sino-Russia relation has also had significant shifts followed by major impacts on the region’s situation. That was proved by the fact that Russia was the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first overseas destination after he took the office in 2013. It is said that the trip aimed at 3 major objectives: first, consolidate and promoting strategic cooperative relation with Russia to stop or retain US-Japan alliance; second, discuss cooperation in the field of energy; third, enhance economic and commercial cooperation between the two countries. What is more, when America and European Union (EU) are in a fierce confrontation with Russia because of Ukraine’s political crisis, the China-Russia strategic partnership to balance against the US and EU in the new world order which is being formed becomes the greatest importance. In April, 2014 Russia highlighted its considerable influence over the East Asia with a 400 billion USD energy agreement with China. To sum up, together with changes in China’s relations with other powers, those in its relations with Russia have had huge impacts on the region’s situation in the fields of security, economics, and politics. Also, this is an opportunity for Russia to develop its potential Far East and East Siberia into an economic bridge joining Asia and Europe together as its strategic pivot to East Asia and Asia-Pacific.

The US strategic pivot to Asia Pacific

In spite of not being located in East Asia geographically, America, in fact, is a major player in the region. Being aware of its pivotal interests in the region, the US is performing its strategic rebalance to maintain its status which is now eroded in the region. In early 2011, the US represented its pivot to Asia-Pacific including East Asia with the following objectives. Firstly, deepen the relationships with regional allies, especially Japan and South Korea. Secondly, boost its military presence with a view to regaining the rebalance, which is challenged by China’s rise and aggressive moves, to Asia Pacific and East Asia in particular. Thirdly, exploit potential of Asia Pacific in general and East Asia in particular for the US growth, which is manifested in its initiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The US President Barack Obama’s visit to a number of countries in Asia- Pacific in April, 2014 also reflects its strengthened engagement in the region. During the visit, President Obama reiterated US support for Japan’s sovereignty over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and strengthening the military alliance with the Philippines. The US rebalancing strategy plays a central role in East Asia’s geopolitical shifts, which made regional countries change their strategies.

Japan’s changes in its defence policy

Japan’s Cabinet, on July 1^st 2014 approved reinterpretation of its Constitution Article 9, will allow the Japan’s Self-Defence Forces to help defend allies and others “in a close relationship” with Japan under what is known as “collective self-defense.”. The reinterpretation marks a milestone in the process of changing Japan’s defense policy to make Japan become a “normal state” in the world.

In parallel with the reinterpretation, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Cabinet built 4 measures to realize the right of collective self-defence. Measure 1: using the national missile defence system against missiles aiming at US targets. Measure 2: deploying Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force when allies’ ships are under attack in the high seas. Measure 3: using Japan’s Self-Defence Forces for a counterattack when a Joint Forces Command with Japan’s participation is attacked overseas. Measure 4: using military forces to erase obstacles during the United Nations peace-keeping operations by the country. The above-mentioned measures are introduced while Japan is always ready to guarantee validity and effectiveness of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, as well as its security interests. Accordingly, it is understood that Japan is still pursuing self-defence policy, even in handling disputes with China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea. In order to set a new security system which can deal with China, Japan has strengthened military cooperation with regional countries, such as Australia, India, the Philippines, and other countries from ASEAN. This is among new and noticeable shifts in the regional geopolitical situation.

An unusual arms race in East Asia

The world has seen dozens of continuous arms races on global and regional scale in the beginning of the 20^th century until early 21^st century. One of them is taking place in East Asia with complex contradictions intertwined among countries and groups of countries. That is a collection of contrasts; a contrast in terms of ideology between China and North Korea side and the other side of the US, Japan, and South Korea; a contrast in geopolitics, geo-economics, and geostrategy between China and the US; China and Japan, South Korea; Russia and the US; North Korea and the US, Japan, South Korea; and so on.

The collection of contrasts above has transformed East Asia into a region of  extremely complex alliance and partnership. While the US holds a system of military alliance including Japan, South Korea, and many other countries, China only has North Korea as its ally and Russia as its strategic partner. While North Korea is in a confrontation with South Korea and Japan, its ally, China, set up close economic relations with the two countries. What is more, China, Japan, and South Korea agreed to use domestic currencies for two-way trade payment regardless of central role of the US dollar. However, this type of cooperation is challenged by an outbreak of recent intense territorial disputes between China and Japan, South Korea and Japan.

For the reasons above, the arms race in East Asia becomes abnormal in the two aspects: nuclear weapons and conventional weapons.

Regarding nuclear weapons, while North Korea firmly follows its nuclear program and uses it as a shield to protect the country, Japan and South Korea are committed not to developing nuclear weapons and accept to be secured under the “US umbrella”. Thus, to step up a denuclearized Korean peninsula, first and foremost America and North Korea need to sign a Peace Treaty. Accordingly, they would agree not to attack each other, otherwise all embargos to stop North Korea’s nuclear program could hardly work. For China, it is still developing their “trio” of strategic weapons, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, strategic bombers and nuclear submarines. China has not yet signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, for it has not yet had a strategic nuclear balance against Russia and the US. For the US, regardless of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia, it is keen to construct missile defence systems in East Asia, Europe, and Middle East to take strategic nuclear advantage over China and Russia. Those moves have raised doubts among countries in seeking measures for a nuclear weapon-free world.

Regarding conventional weapons, modernization of weapons for navy and air forces in all countries is the inevitable trend, for territorial disputes over seas and islands in the region are unceasingly intense. It is worth noticing that development of cyber weapons is of special importance among countries with a view to stealing other countries’ military confidential information and technology (in peacetime), and disrupting enemy’s central command cyber systems (when a war breaks out). This is a very new part of arms race in East Asia. Basing on its abnormal features, military experts estimate that East Asia will be among “hot spots” which possibly trigger huge wars in 21^st century.

Minh Hoang