On 19 November 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving the revised nuclear doctrine, the foundation of state policy in the field of nuclear deterrence. Compared to the 2020 nuclear doctrine, the revised doctrine has added important amendments that aim to firmly protect Russia’s security and territorial sovereignty and its allies in the context that the country is facing numerous new risks and threats.

A “sharp” message

Answering why Russia announced the revised nuclear doctrine at this time, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the nuclear doctrine was signed by President Putin on 19 November 2024 according to the plan of the Russian Federation. Previously, President Putin issued instructions and announcements related to this issue, such as the preparation of the revised contents is in the final stage; the updated document has undergone in-depth analysis both in Russia and abroad; the doctrine will be published in due course. Mr. Dmitry Peskov stated that the emergence of new military threats and risks is the basis for Russia to adjust the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. Russia has the right to consider a nuclear response to threats to Russia’s sovereignty, national security, and its allies. According to the Russian Constitution, the decision to use nuclear weapons must be made by the president himself.

Analysing the decision to announce Russia's revised nuclear doctrine, experts said that President Putin signed the decree at the time when the Russia-Ukraine conflict had lasted more than 1,000 days with increasingly fierce scale and intensity. However, according to experts, the underlying reason for this is that outgoing US President Joe Biden "gave the green light" to Ukraine to use long-range precision strike weapons (aided by the US) to attack targets deep inside Russian territory - an action that Russia has repeatedly warned is "crossing the red line" and could lead to direct military confrontation between Russia and the US. With this doctrine, Russia has more "options" in using nuclear weapons. This is also regarded as a serious decision and a "cold" message that the head of the Kremlin wants to send to the US and Western countries those have made decisions which are considered by Russia as "serious mistakes" that could lead to unpredictable consequences.

Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Navy Day Parade 2024 (Photo: Sputnik)

Important adjustments

According to military experts, compared to the 2020 nuclear doctrine, the revised nuclear doctrine has important additions and amendments. First, the revised doctrine expands the scope of the use of nuclear weapons. The doctrine adjusts from using nuclear weapons in response to “aggressive actions against Russia” to “aggressive actions against other members of the alliance”, including Russia and Belarus. That is, the doctrine has put Belarus under Russia's “nuclear umbrella” and considers any attack on Belarus as an attack on Russia. This is a clear signal that Russia is ready to assume the obligations necessary to become a global power.

Second, in addition to the four scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons outlined in the 2020 doctrine, the revised doctrine adds another scenario: Russia can use nuclear weapons if it receives “reliable information” about a large-scale deployment of aircraft or launch of missiles or drones as well as other types of enemy aircraft aimed at Russia’s territory, crossing the borders of Russia or its ally Belarus. In addition, this doctrine also lowers the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. Previously, Russia determined that it would only use nuclear weapons in response “if the country’s survival was threatened,” but now it has been adjusted to “when there is a serious threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and Belarus.” Russia also considers an attack by a member state of an alliance as an attack by the entire alliance.

Third, the revised doctrine expands the list of factors that Moscow considers a military threat which may require a nuclear response. According to this doctrine, Russia considers any party possessing weapons of mass destruction that can be used against Russia, conducting military exercises near Russian borders, plotting attacks on facilities, endangering the environment, or isolating part of Russian territory as a serious military threat. The Kremlin reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of an adversary using nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction against Russia’s territory or its allies. The updated doctrine also adds the possibility of an adversary targeting Russian armed forces or bases outside its territory.

Fourth, the revised doctrine not only considers nuclear weapons as a deterrent but also adds the content that Russia can use them against “potential” enemies. Any attack by a non-nuclear state that receives support from a nuclear power is also considered a joint attack, and Russia can use nuclear weapons in retaliation. Russia will initiate the use of nuclear weapons against countries that allow one side to use its territory, airspace, seas and other resources under its control to prepare and launch attacks on Russia.

However, in terms of its position, Russia defines nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence and their use is mandatory. Moscow will strive to take the necessary measures to reduce the nuclear threat and prevent “escalation” in relations with countries that could cause military and nuclear conflicts. For Moscow, nuclear deterrence is only aimed at protecting sovereignty, territorial integrity, deterring potential adversaries, avoiding “escalation” of tensions, preventing military conflicts and ending them on terms acceptable to Russia. The President of Russia may notify the leaders of countries and international organisations of the readiness to use nuclear weapons or of the decision to use them.

Thus, Russia's revised nuclear doctrine has been supplemented and amended in the direction of expanding the target, scope of deterrence and lowering the activation threshold. That will help Moscow have more options in using nuclear weapons; at the same time, it is an important basis for protecting the security, national interests, and territorial sovereignty of Russia and the alliance in the context that the Russia is facing serious challenges as well as military threats.

International public opinion on Russia's revised nuclear doctrine

Immediately after Russia’s announcement of the revised nuclear doctrine, it received special attention from international public opinion. According to military experts, in the context of a complex and unpredictable world; the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the United States are increasing pressure against Russia on different fronts, especially military, with the determination to "defeat Russia strategically", it is necessary for Russia to adjust and amend its doctrine and modernise its nuclear arsenal. It not only helps Moscow improve its nuclear deterrence against sabotage plots, but also protects the security, national interests, and territorial sovereignty of Russia and the alliance. However, the adjustment also puts Russia at various "risks", such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict situation becoming more serious; intense relations between Russia and the US and NATO are likely to escalate; regional and international security is unpredictable. Military experts also believe that if the US and NATO continue to support Ukraine in using long-range missiles (aided by the US and UK) to attack targets deep inside Russia; or deploy medium-range missiles in Germany and Japan to blockade, restrain, and threaten the security and territorial sovereignty of Russia and the alliance, then Moscow may use the provisions of the revised nuclear doctrine to respond, then a global nuclear conflict is at risk. According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, in response to Kiev's use of US ATACMS long-range precision missiles and British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to attack Russian territory, Moscow would conduct a series of large-scale raids with medium-range ballistic missiles and UAVs, causing heavy damage to Ukraine's energy infrastructure. At the same time, Russia would send a very clear signal: "Stop. You should not continue to act like this. Do not provide everything Ukraine asks for and do not encourage Kiev to carry out new military adventures because they would be extremely dangerous." Meanwhile, Deputy Chairman of the Russian National Security Council Dmitry Medvedev stated, "it is not excluded that Moscow will have to attack NATO military bases in the event of an escalation of tensions due to the use of long-range weapons by the West against Russia." Professor Sean McFate - a US military expert, said that "it is not easy to guess Mr. Putin's intentions. But it is clear that Mr. Biden is rolling a “nuclear dice” right at the time of the power transition. How reckless”.

In the face of Russia’s increasingly “hardline” moves, the US is urgently adjusting its nuclear strategy, in the direction of: (1). Preventing different opponents. According to Washington, in addition to Russia, China is also a dangerous “potential opponent” for the US, when it is believed that this country is investing heavily in developing a nuclear arsenal with various modern types by 2030; (2). Integrating non-nuclear capabilities. If feasible, non-nuclear capabilities will be integrated to support the nuclear deterrence mission; (3). Escalation management. The White House emphasises the importance of escalation management in responding to limited attacks or non-nuclear strategic attacks. In addition, the US is also focusing on modernising its arsenal, especially key weapons, such as the B61-13 gravity bomb, Ohio-class submarines, etc. to enhance deterrence and combat capabilities. Western countries are also focusing on analysing and closely monitoring Russia's moves after its announcement of the revised nuclear doctrine, in order to review and amend defence policies to adapt to possible nuclear conflict scenarios. Some NATO member countries are focusing on researching and renovating public works into radiation-resistant shelters; developing mobile nuclear bomb shelters; organising drills to deal with nuclear radiation situations, etc.

In the context of the current situation, international public opinion has expressed deep concern about a nuclear arms race between major powers, which could seriously threaten the security, safety and survival of all mankind. Public opinion hopes that all parties need to be calm and restrained, on the basis of respecting international law and the United Nations Charter, cooperating through dialogue and consultation to resolve disagreements and disputes; resolutely preventing nuclear conflicts, moving towards the complete disarmament of this dangerous weapon, and together building a civilised, safe and developed world.

MINH DUC - VAN CUONG