More than a year back in power after the rapid collapse of former President Ashraf Ghani's government, the Taliban government has pledged to implement a "less draconian" version of leadership compared to its previous ruling period of 1996 - 2001. However, things were not as simple as expected given the poverty and internal conflicts raging in the country. These are the factors that could push Afghanistan into a new spiral of civil war.
Current challenges
Not long ago, Deputy Prime Minister of the Taliban’s Afghan Government Abdul Salam Hanafi expressed great pride in the achievements that the Taliban administration has brought to the people, stating: Afghanistan is now a country that has an “Islamic system, in which everyone has full rights, with no injustice and no corruption”. Supporters of the Taliban welcome the return of an “orthodox” Muslim government with original Islamic laws; at the same time, openly criticised the excessive exercise of freedom, which led to rampant crimes and what they saw as a disordered society under the previous administration.
In reality, it is undeniable that there are differences between today’s "Taliban 2.0" state and the extremely repressive Taliban government of more than 20 years ago. Currently, Afghans can access to the Internet, go to stadiums, listen to music, etc. as long as these activities are religious. The Taliban also strives to govern the country in a more orderly manner. Therefore, in a country with almost the worst security in the world, with anyone who left their house always carrying the fear of terrorism, today this fear has been reduced. However, the real sense of security has not yet returned, because the most visible sight in the streets is almost always soldiers carrying machine guns and rocket launchers on passing trucks.
For many people, the return of the Taliban also means a setback in Afghanistan’s economic development and international integration; at the same time, it reverses the social benefits implemented in the past two decades. The Taliban’s biggest failure has been its inability to revive Afghanistan’s war-torn economy, which now continues to struggle with poverty, with GDP per capita still among the lowest in the world, at only about $500/year. Afghanistan exports almost nothing but opium, and international financial sources have also largely been cut, leaving only a small amount of humanitarian aid. Negotiations by the Central Bank of this country with the United States to recover its $07 billion of frozen foreign assets have yielded no results. In addition, the Afghan banking system has been paralysed by a liquidity crisis. As Afghanistan's economy threatened to collapse, Washington lifted a lot of sanctions and sent emergency humanitarian aid in the hope of averting what the United Nations called a catastrophe. However, no amount of aid can make up for an isolated banking system with no access to international currency. Meanwhile, foreign companies and financial institutions remain wary of doing business with the Taliban government. As a result of this isolation, the Afghan economy has shrunk by as much as 40% in the past year. The United Nations estimates that about half of the country’s population (equal to 19 million people) is living in extreme poverty and facing severe food insecurity; 95% of Afghans do not have sufficient food; and nearly 04 million children are suffering from acute malnourishment and almost half of the population face severe malnutrition. According to the World Food Program, up to 92% of households in Afghanistan are in debt, and 88% of households are forced to take out loans because of high food prices. In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict has caused food prices to rise globally, worsening the economic crisis in Afghanistan.
According to international studies, one of the causes of the severe economic crisis in Afghanistan is the mismanagement of the Taliban and the country’s international isolation. Currently, no country has recognised the Taliban government, although some Western countries have reopened their diplomatic missions in Afghanistan in recent months to maintain contact with the incumbent government, but this is mainly to deal with issues of terrorism, migration, and humanitarian aid. In addition, Afghanistan, which has been heavily dependent on international financial support, has become even more miserable since it is almost completely cut off from foreign aid. The reason is that the Taliban government quickly forgot its promise to ensure equal educational opportunities and social access for women and young girls. In fact, not long after coming to power, the Taliban ordered the closure of many schools, and young girls were banned from attending school beyond the sixth grade. Meanwhile, women’s rights were once again restricted, they are only allowed to leave the house in case of necessity and must be accompanied by a male relative. Women are also banned from working in most government agencies and forced to wear Burqua, a head-to-toe and full face covering dress when in public.
The threat of a civil war
Not only has the Taliban failed to run the economy, after more than a year back in power, it also has to face a number of other serious internal problems: increasing conflicts between factions, the rise of Pashtun nationalism, and the withdrawal of ethnic groups from the Taliban movement. In particular, the significantly strengthening and expanding role of the Pashtuns, although seen by the Taliban government as a measure to consolidate power, in fact, brings a number of risks to the comprehensive leadership of the incumbent Taliban government. Although the Taliban may be able to recruit Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Hazara in the north and elsewhere into its rank, top leaders of this movement are still hard-line Pashtuns who oppose any ideological compromises. They advocate building a highly centralised system of government by directly appointing local leaders from Kabul, mostly of Pashtun origin, and creating a rigid vertical hierarchy. However, such decisions disrupt the existing balance of power between local commanders and the country’s top leadership. This may encourage some non-Pashtun groups to fight the Taliban. Such discord will intensify the power struggle between different factions of the movement and once the Taliban cannot solve the challenges facing the country, popular support for its oppositions can increase significantly. And so, it is very likely that there will be a new spiral of civil war stemming from the confrontation between ethnic groups.
While it has not been able to figure out an effective leadership model and solve key problems, the Taliban government has to face the threats of many new “enemies”. As the flags of the Taliban were hoisted all over the Capital of Kabul, a large number of officers and soldiers from the army of former President Ashraf Ghani regrouped in the Panjshir Valley to join the National Resistance Front (NRF) led by Ahmad Massoud. This man is the son of Ahmad Shah Massoud, leader of Northern Alliance in the 1980s, who was assassinated by Al-Qaeda gunmen just two days before the September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attacks. With rugged mountainous terrain, the Panjshir Valley was the ideal base for a prolonged resistance. Hence, Ahmad Massoud declared that he did not recognise the Taliban government as the legitimate leadership of the country. Despite being defeated many times in combat and pushed back from the Panjshir region by the Taliban’s central government Taliban, the NRF has not given up its ambition to seize power. Currently, Ahmad Massoud has been working with former Vice President of Afghanistan Amrullah Saleh and some other members of the former government to try to build a new army with a current strength of about 15,000. In addition, NRF has expanded its operations from two provinces on day one to 12 provinces in Afghanistan. More than just a group of "rebels", the size and status of the NRF are increasing day by day. A great success of this movement was gaining the permission of the US Department of Justice to open a liaison office in Washington to lobby for the resistance.
After the NRF, another organisation worth mentioning is a group established in Baghlan Province led by Abdul Hamid Dadgar. Only about 10 days after its foundation, this group successfully captured the Andarab, Pul-e-Hesar, and De Salah Districts of the province, however, these areas were later recaptured by the Taliban. Also aiming to overthrow the Taliban is the Dostum group led by Abdul Rashid Dostum and Atta Muhammad Nur, with about 10,000 fighters. This organisation has a base in Uzbekistan and has stated that it is willing to work with the NRF to liberate Afghanistan from the Taliban. So far, this resistance army seems to be constantly expanding. The newly formed Afghan Freedom Front (AFF) and another group backed by former politician Atta Mohammad Noor are carrying out hit-and-run attacks in northern Afghanistan. Clashes are also reported in Kapisa Province, where Hazara fighters have repelled many Taliban counterattacks and continued to hold their ground. Many sources believe that these groups are planning to unite in the form of a national resistance council.
However, the areas of operation of these groups are still relatively limited, mainly in northeastern Afghanistan. In contrast, the growing strength of the Islamic State organisation in Khorasan Province (IS-K), which has staged many attacks in the Capital of Kabul, the Provinces of Nangarhar, Kunar, Balkh, and Kunduz, is actually the biggest concern of the Taliban government. Taking advantage of the collapse of the previous Afghan government, IS-K re-emerged in 2021 and since then has been behind many bloody terrorist attacks in this South Asian country, including the Kabul Airport Bombing in August 2021 that killed 13 US soldiers. This group also has a long-term operating strategy when it announced a bonus of 300 USD to anyone who joins the organisation. In many areas, IS-K openly recruits Taliban fighters, former members of the Afghan Intelligence Service under President Ashraf Ghani, and seasoned fighters from the Badri Special Forces. In particular, IS-K also plans to recruit members of other jihadist groups, including Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), aiming to expand its operation into the neighbouring country.
The international community holds that, with current leadership and management capacity, the Taliban have seemingly not yet learnt many lessons from its first ruling period nearly three decades ago while the situation in Afghanistan today is very different from that time. There are many players that are challenging the rule of the Taliban and if the government formed by this armed group cannot synchronously solve the existing problems, from improving the economy, tackling international isolation to implementing a more open social policy, a civil war in this unstable country is inevitable.
VAN KHANH