In 2024, the global political and military landscape underwent significant changes due to the impacts of various hot spots, conflicts, and strategic competition among major powers, particularly the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the escalating war in the Middle East, tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and increasing signs of US-China rivalry.

Russo-Ukrainian conflict remains unresolved

International observers note that after nearly three years, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved into a comprehensive war between the Collective West led by the US - with NATO at the forefront - and Russia. As openly declared, the West’s objective is to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia, push Moscow into a comprehensive crisis, and maintain the unipolar world order established after the Cold War.

An attack launched by Russian artillery forces against the armed forces of Ukraine (photo: Sputnik/baotintuc.vn)

However, developments in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict throughout 2024 indicate that the West’s calculations have largely failed. Russia is gradually achieving the objectives of its special military operation, its economy remains stable, and it has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). Far from being isolated, Russia has expanded its global influence. The BRICS Summit, presided over by Russia in its rotating chairmanship for 2024, was attended by nearly 20,000 delegates from 35 countries and was deemed highly successful. The joint declaration of this year’s BRICS Summit demonstrates the irreversible trend towards a multipolar world order, in which Russia plays a crucial role.

However, on 6 August 2024, Ukraine unexpectedly launched an incursion into Russian territory in the Kursk region and subsequently unveiled its “Victory Plan”. This plan included two key points: an immediate request for NATO membership and permission to use long-range weapons supplied by the US and certain NATO members to attack targets deep within Russian territory. With this strategy, President Volodymyr Zelensky sought to draw NATO directly into the conflict, effectively transforming it into a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. 

On 19 November 2024, Ukraine escalated the conflict by using six US-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles to attack Russia’s Bryansk region. This marked a dangerous escalation that could potentially lead to a direct military confrontation between the US and Russia, raising the spectre of a third world war. In response, on the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new nuclear doctrine. While the four primary scenarios under which Russia might use nuclear weapons remained unchanged, two additional scenarios were added: First, receiving credible intelligence of a massive attack on Russia using aerial or space-based means, including strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic weapons, or other aerial systems. Second, an act of aggression against Belarus, a member of the Union State with Russia. Meanwhile, US President-elect Donald Trump, during his campaign, declared he would “end the Russo-Ukrainian conflict within 24 hours”, though he has not specified how this would be achieved. Russia has indicated it will only respond to Trump’s statements once he officially assumes office in January 2025.

The escalation of US-China strategic competition 

During Donald Trump’s first term as US President, US-China relations devolved into a comprehensive strategic rivalry, with the most prominent and contentious aspect being the trade war. Under the presidency of Joe Biden, the US has maintained its approach of comprehensive strategic competition with China but has shifted its focus towards geopolitical competition, particularly by expanding NATO’s influence into Asia. While NATO’s presence in Europe is aimed at containing Russia, the so-called “Asian NATO” is widely regarded as a strategy to contain China. Reflecting this approach, on 11 April 2024, President Joe Biden hosted the inaugural summit between the US, Japan, and the Philippines at the White House, formally establishing a trilateral alliance. Additionally, plans were proposed for a US-Japan-South Korea summit to be held by the end of 2024. These actions align with the framework outlined in the US National Security Strategy under the presidency of Biden, which identifies China as a fundamental, systemic, and long-term threat.

During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump pledged to continue a policy of comprehensive strategic competition with China. He announced plans to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports to the US, significantly higher than the 10% tariff during his first term as President (2017 - 2021). Following Trump’s victory declaration, Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message on 7 November 2024, emphasising that history has shown the two nations benefit from cooperation and suffer from confrontation. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning warned that there would be no winners in the trade war promised by President-elect Trump. Mao Ning also underscored that Taiwan remains the “most important and sensitive issue” in the US-China relations and urged Washington to adhere to the “One China” principle. On the issue of Taiwan, Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff on Chinese imports should Beijing “move into” Taiwan. He also insisted that Taiwan must pay for US protection and accused the island of having “stolen” America’s chip industry. In response to Trump’s statements, Taiwan, on 8 November 2024, pledged to sign major arms deals in an attempt to placate the President-elect. This indicates the possibility of an intense trade war between the US and China, particularly centred on sensitive issues like technology and Taiwan.

Middle East’s escalating instability 

Geopolitical competition remained a defining feature of global political and military affairs in 2024, most prominently exemplified by the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, which began on 7 October 2023. By 2024, this escalated into a full-scale war involving Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran, Syria, and the Houthi force in Yemen. A significant turning point occurred on 31 July 2024, when Israel launched an assassination strike in Tehran, Iran’s capital, killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. In retaliation, Iran fired 200 missiles against targets inside Israel on 2 October 2024, with many breaching Israel’s multi-layered defence systems. Israel responded on 26 October 2024 with a massive airstrike, targeting Iranian missile factories, research centres, drone production facilities, power plants, and Revolutionary Guard missile bases. Simultaneously, Israel conducted airstrikes on military targets in central and southern Syria and Hezbollah positions in Beirut and southern Lebanon.

International observers argue that the events of 2024 indicate Israel’s strategic use of Hamas's 7 October 2023 attack to achieve broader objectives. These include not only regaining control over the Gaza Strip but also permanently dismantling the plan for the establishment of a Palestinian state, securing parts of Lebanese and Syrian territories, and weakening Iran’s economic and military capabilities. This strategy was reflected in statements from Israeli officials, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who declared: “The future of Jerusalem will expand to Damascus”. Their vision of Israel encompasses the so-called “Promised Land”, including territories in Palestine, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Israel’s immediate goals involve eliminating Hamas and neutralising Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group in Lebanon. Its long-term objectives include limiting Iran’s influence and consolidating political and military dominance in the Middle East. These align with US objectives, which aim to dismantle the Iranian regime - a regime viewed by Washington as a pillar of the Russia-China-Iran strategic triangle with both China and Russia maintaining strategic partnerships with Iran. 

Escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula reach an alarming level

The year 2024 witnessed an unprecedented escalation in inter-Korean tensions since the end of the Cold War. A pivotal moment came with North Korea’s decision to amend its constitution to formally abandon the goal of Korean reunification and designate South Korea as a “hostile state”. Alongside this historic decision, North Korea destroyed key roads and railways connecting the two Koreas. 

The intensification of tensions and confrontations on the Korean Peninsula stems from a mix of historical, political, and military factors. Historically, the Korean War (1950 - 1953) left a legacy of profound hostility, dividing the peninsula into two opposing governments with entirely different political and economic systems. Although an armistice ended the fighting over half a century ago, the two Koreas have never signed a formal peace treaty. Politically and militarily, South Korea remains a strategic ally of the United States, a nation committed to dismantling North Korea’s political system and maintaining a significant military presence in South Korea. This presence, comprising tens of thousands of troops armed with advanced weaponry, is perceived by Pyongyang as a constant invasion threat. These fears have been exacerbated by frequent large-scale joint military exercises conducted near North Korea’s border by the US, South Korea, and Japan. In response, North Korea has pursued the development of nuclear weapons as a deterrent against perceived threats. Conversely, South Korea views North Korea’s nuclear program as a “grave threat”. The hostility between the two Koreas originates from a combination of historical grievances, security concerns, and ideological divides, and is enhanced by great-power rivalries. To prepare for potential aggression from the US-South Korea-Japan military alliance, North Korea signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with Russia during President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pyongyang on 18 June 2024. This agreement, ratified by both countries’ parliaments, includes Article 4, which obliges mutual assistance in the event of an invasion of either party. This agreement has further contributed to the escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

To sum up, the global political and military landscape of 2024 leaves us deeply concerned. However, with the collective efforts and cooperation of the international community, there is hope that hot spots and conflicts around the world will be resolved soon, and major powers will take on greater responsibility for maintaining global peace.

Senior Colonel LE THE MAU