Over a decade after the collapse of Muanmar Gaddafi’s government, Libya remains one of the worst hit countries due to the “Arab Spring”. Violence, chaos, division, poverty, terrorism, etc. have driven this Northern African country to mire in a full-blown crisis, which disrupts the path to peace and stability.
The struggle between the Western and the Eastern factions
The late President Muammar Gaddafi and his government did not believe that his country under his 42-year rule, used to be one of the most stable and admirable economy in North Africa, could not withstand “the shaking” of the “Arab Spring” that overflew the region. Derived from the capture of a human right activist in Benghazi on February 26th, 2011, the uprising in Libya sparked off as a spillover effect of the democratic revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt – the neighbouring countries. The uprising was not suppressed by Tripoli administration, but spreaded across the country and shook the Gaddafi’s regime. After the UN adopted Resolution 1973 on March 17th, 2011 on allowing international intervention in Libya to protect civilians, raids were conducted by Western-led military alliances intensely, which signified a gloomy future for Colonel Gaddafi. A few days after statement of the then U.S Secretary of State - Hillary Clinton – on October 2011 that there would be only a few days left for Gaddafi administration, he was killed in Syrte (450 km from Tripoli). The abrupt death of the Libyan president put an end to not only his four-decade rule but also an unusual historical period of the North African country; and at the same time, commenced a new chapter in Libya’s history.
Scenarios of a more promising future in the “post-Gaddafi” era, however, fell apart. Instead of enjoying the expected prosperity, Libyan people were burdened with new waves of violence. The peace process supported by the UN did not last long. Even the Libya’s first democratic election after 40 years, which was held on July 7th, 2012 to form 200-member constitutional Parliament, was only symbolic. Then Libya was spiraled into the second civil war due to being run by two parallel governments. The Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj in Tripoli, under the support of the UN, was backed by Qatar and Turkey. Meanwhile, the government in the East was led by General Khalifa Haftar, who had been disgraced under Gaddafi’s regime and lived in exile in the U.S from 1987. When Libya was in the eye of the “Arab Spring” storm, he returned to Libya to join the anti-Gaddafi uprisings. Taking advantage of the chaos at the time, he recruited several former officers under Gaddafi’s feet and established the Libyan National Army (LNA) and occupy the Eastern region. His administration was backed by Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia as well as receiving political support from the U.S, Russia, France, etc.
The state that each faction “occupies and rules” its own land leads to the complicated and chaotic political situation in Libya. In addition to the rivalry between the East and the West, which divides the country with constant violence between the factions, the intervention of foreign forces also transforms the nature of the armed conflict in Libya into a proxy war. Besides being a rich country in oil with 46 billion barrel proven reserves, Libya lies in a crucial geo-political position in North Africa, the Middle East and the Mediterranean Sea, where regional and global superpowers have long been rivaling for influence. The power vacuum inadvertently magnetises the ambitions of the powers. Russia expressed its affection for General Khalifa Haftar and provided certain supports; meanwhile, the U.K, France, etc. hoped that the chief of LNA would help control the refugees to Europe. With that firm support, the self-declared Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar expanded his control over Tripolitaine in the Northwest of Libya, which was under Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj’s management. Realising that its ally was in jeopardy, Turkey engaged in the conflict with the deployment of 7,000 armed militias and unmanned aerial aircraft (UAV) to Libya to reinforce the GNA in Tripoli despite the strong support from Qatar throughout the fight. Besides the objectives of counter-balancing the presence of Russia and gaining control of a portion of Libya’s precious oil sources in the Mediterranean Sea, a GNA’s victory in Tripoli would not only create favourable condition for Turkey and Qatar to gain a foothold in this major oil-production nation but also play a strategic role in expanding their influence upon other countries in the region, such as Tunisia and Egypt. Egypt and the UAE, of course, would not let a country that is capable of producing 2.5 million of oil barrels per day fall into their regional opponents easily. The victory of the GNA means that the position of Egypt, the UAE and the North Africa would seriously be damaged. Thus, the entanglement in Libya is beyond the scope of a civil war to become an international arena of power where the struggles of influence take place.
Unsolved deadlock
Over a decade after the “Arab Spring”, conflicts and violence has driven Libyan people to misery and turmoil. Constant instability has also transformed Libya into a haven for groups of terrorists and extremists including the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) to grow, run rampant and destabilise nine countries in the Sahel region, including Senegal, Mauritanie, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Tchad, Sudan, Eritrea. Security vacuum in Libya were what led to the most terrible migration crisis in Europe since World War II. At the time, millions of refugees flocked to this North African country to reach the promising land on the other side of the Mediterranean Sea.
In such a chaotic context, it is necessary to pave the path to peace in Libya by establishing a sole and legal government to lead the country. Through the effort of the UN and international community, a ceasefire agreement between the warring factions was signed in October 2020 to facilitate the challenging path. A few months later, a provisional government named the Government of National Unity (GNU) came in power with the task to prepare a presidential election and parliamentary election on December 24th, 2021. However, these expected historical events were postponed indefinitely. Domestic disputes prevented the re-establishment of political order as the factions were still in deep disagreement on constitutional basis for the elections as well as did not reach a consensus on power structure. The authorities in the so-called interim political institution endorsed by the UN and the Western superpowers showed little interest in voting for the fear of losing their power after the elections. The current provisional government of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh and he himself are also on the verge of being eliminated from politics by an election since he has been accused of abusing the government’s resources to maintain his power and gain advantage in the forthcoming electoral event, which he once pledged not to stand in for as a presidential candidate. The democratic process was also seriously threatened as the Parliament Speaker, Aguila Saleh, ratified Presidential Election Law in September 2021 without voting. His opponents held that his hasty decision was to validate his unasked amendment of the Election Law to pave way for General Khalifa Haftar, his intimate ally, to retake his leadership over the Eastern forces in case losing the Presidential Election.
The division and factionalism were so deep that none of the promising candidates received widespread recognition. Seif al-Islam, Muammar Gaddafi’s son, is regarded as a criminal wanted by the International Criminal Court for having involved in suppressing protesters in the uprising from February to October 2011. If he wins the election, a war would be immediately triggered by anti-Gaddafi forces or a Haftar-led general offensive would be launched to Tripoli. Meanwhile, although being seen as a hero who can do signs and wonders in the East, General Khalifa Haftar is still the most hated man Tripolitaine. In case Abdulhamid Dbeibah wins the election, it won’t be easy for the interim Prime Minister to sit in the highest seat of power because of his intimacy with Gaddafi’s regime as a businessman.
According to experts, the current rampant violence will make it difficult for holding a safe election in Libya. Moreover, even if the elections are successfully held, it won’t be easy to fully implement the results of voting. After over 10 years of regime change, deep division, factions in the armed forces, police, the state institutions etc. have become an ingrained disease of this North African country. It might take ages for this economic potential country to heal the consequences of the “Arab Spring” and establish peace and stability.
VAN KHANH