In July 2023, in Vilnius, Republic of Lithuania, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation leaders approved its Comprehensive Defence Plan. The plan is critically hailed as complete, detailed and ambitious one. Up to now, its connotations and global and regional impact have drawn the international spotlight.
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| Leaders of member states at NATO Summit of 2023 held in Vilnius (photo: qdnd.vn) |
According to researchers, after the end of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the dissolution of the Warsaw military bloc, NATO seemingly "completed its historic mission" without any counterweight. In fact, the largest world military bloc still exists; it is sometimes faced with the situation in which "the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing", and especially finds no direction for its operations. To promote its scale and influence regionally and globally, NATO has repeatedly adjusted its strategy, but due to low effectiveness and high costs, disagreements between the two sides of the Atlantic have escalated. The issue climaxed when US President Donald Trump in 2019 harshly criticised some NATO member countries as "parasites" and warned American withdrawal from NATO if other member states made no commensurate contributions. And French President Emmanuel Macron - one of NATO's key leaders, at one point had to admit that NATO was "brain dead".
Ambitious comprehensive defence plan
NATO's Vilnius Summit (July 2023) approved the Comprehensive Defence Plan, which was considered an ambitious step in the foundation and development of the Alliance, with the goal of protecting and preventing potential attacks in cyberspace, in air, on land, and at sea. Accordingly, the direct threats to the bloc’s security and to stability in Europe and the Atlantic region are Russia and terrorism with the former being considered the largest and most direct. On this ground, NATO reinforces from 40,000 to 300,000 troops for the rapid reaction force (NRF) of the infantry, air force, navy, and special force to ensure their ability to combat immediately at any "hot spots" in Europe and the world. NATO has also deployed heavy mechanised force, artillery units, long-range missiles, and advanced air defence systems to protect strategic directions, targets and key areas of its member countries, forming an inter-connected, multi-layered defence posture.
At the same time, the Bloc also plans to send some 1,000 troops to support Poland’s military and the Baltic countries for further deterrence. Accordingly, Britain supports Estonia; the US supports Poland; Canada supports Latvia; Germany supports Lithuania. In particular, Germany is set to take on the role of logistics hub in case of a serious conflict and ready to mobilise 1 brigade (about 4,000 troops) to be garrisoned in Lithuania. In addition, NATO also considers establishing a Land Command in Wiesbaden (Germany) and requires member countries' militaries to always be in a high state of combat readiness in case of conflicts. In parallel with regional reinforcements, NATO is expected to hold large-scale exercises in several member countries in the time to come to show off its strength and enhance joint combat capabilities with the participation of about 41,000 troops and many modern vehicles and weapons. Besides, the Alliance also implements a new defence production plan, accelerating the procurement of weapons, equipment, and common technical vehicles, increasing production capacity and improving interoperability among member countries. The new defence plan also mentions speeding up the process of Ukrainian admission into NATO in the quickest way. Accordingly, the Alliance will shorten the admission process from "2 steps" to "1 step" by agreeing to waive the Member State Action Plan (MAP) requirement for Ukraine. In addition, the Bloc also commits to providing an aid package for years for Ukraine to transform its armed forces in compliance with NATO standards, as well as consolidate the country's defence and security. Despite much assistance, the Alliance's Defence Plan still does not set a specific time for Ukraine's admission. Researchers believe that NATO implies the Ukraine admission only when the country "fulfils its strategic goals" in accordance with the bloc's intentions in the war against Russia. In the field of international cooperation, NATO attaches importance to expanding its influence in the Asia-Pacific region through promoting defence and security cooperation with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. In the immediate future, it will promote the establishment of a liaison office in Tokyo, while Japan, South Korea, and Australia set up representative offices in Brussels to facilitate coordination.
NATO officials hope that with strong collective defence capabilities and posture as well as modern combat means incorporated in the Comprehensive Defence Plan, the Alliance's military power will be "unmatched", fully capable of controlling and mastering the air, land, sea, and cyber space in the event of conflict with any potential adversaries.
Implications for the region and the world
According to international experts, NATO's Comprehensive Defence Plan is in fact an "all-out war plan", part of the overall strategy against Russia since the cold war ended. This plan may put NATO-Russia relationship on the brink of a "comprehensive confrontation". In that case, security and stability in Europe and the world will be seriously threatened.
In the wake of Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO member states have strongly supported Ukraine through providing a variety of weapons and equipment worth up to tens of billions of US dollars. Recently, on the 75th anniversary of its establishment, foreign ministers of NATO member states discussed efforts to directly participate in the process of coordinating and transporting goods and arms to Ukraine; they also discussed an aid fund worth $100 billion for Ukraine over the next 5 years, and most recently, the US Congress also approved a military aid package of up to $61 billion for Ukraine. Military experts say that NATO's Comprehensive Defence Plan and recent military activities are the main reasons for Russian accusation of NATO of waging a "proxy war" in Ukraine, with a view to defeating Russia strategically, or in other words, NATO will "finish Russia once and for all" on the world map.
For its part, Moscow stated that NATO's military aid packages for Ukraine will not change the battlefield scenario; those packages will only prolong the conflict, and Ukraine will suffer heavier losses in all fields. According to the Kremlin spokesman, NATO's acceleration of Ukraine’s membership is against Russia's consistency, and it will adversely impact the European security architecture, which is now half destroyed. This would be an absolute danger and a direct threat to Russia, and Russia would firmly take retaliatory action against such a move. Vice Chairman of the Russian National Security Council Dmitry Medvedev also warned that NATO’s weaponry and military support for Ukraine only lead to "dead end" and the Third World War. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto expressed deep concern that NATO's continued aid to a defending country might be a kind of support for a war. Besides, the Pentagon's moves to deploy nuclear weapons in Poland and French call for the military’s direct participation in the war in Ukraine are also increasing the risk of a direct conflict between nuclear powers. Currently the US and Russia are the world's two leading nuclear powers. As a result of the US unilateral withdrawal from the Long-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2018, Russia also withdrew from the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty in 2023. The continuous retaliation between the two nuclear powers not only gets the risk of nuclear weapon proliferation out of control on a global scale, but also raises a prospect of a nuclear confrontation, threatening security and stability in the region and the world.
In addition, the Plan also requires its member states to increase their defence budget to 2% of GDP and accelerate purchases of weapons, equipment, and modern technical vehicles to gain absolute military advantage. This probably leads to an increase in the world's military costs, triggering a global arms race. According to a report by the Stockholm Peace Research Institute, in 2023, military spending in the world reached a record high of $2.43 trillion, with NATO and US accounting for about 55% and 37%, respectively. This report also warns that the arms race between NATO and its opponents may shift sharply towards gaining superiority in nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence, stealth weapons, hypersonic missiles, multi-purpose air defence systems, early warning systems, etc., which increases the risk of catastrophic conflicts and unpredictable upheaval. Experts say that NATO's comprehensive defence plan aims at first to defeat Russia - its biggest and direct opponent, then to target China - a potentially dangerous opponent or in other words, a long-term, fundamental, systemic rival in the Asia-Pacific region. Chinese leaders have raised their voice against NATO expansion of its influence to the East. At the same time, they have warned retaliation in kind against any threats to China's national security and interests.
As things stand, especially the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East war with no end in sight, the international community hopes that the US-led world largest military alliance, along with Russia and China, should resolve conflicts and disagreements on the basis of the United Nations Charter and international laws through peaceful means instead of use of force or threat to use of force. Besides, nations and organisations should not escalate disagreements into conflicts and wars for their own intent and interests to the detriment of security, stability, and development of the region and the world.
MINH DUC