In 2024, the global landscape witnessed unprecedented complexity and unpredictability, marked by intensifying strategic competition among major powers and escalating military conflicts across various regions. These developments further destabilised an already volatile global security environment. To provide a comprehensive overview of the global security landscape, the National Defence Journal presents a roundup of the 10 most significant military and defence events that shaped the world in 2024.
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| A Russian missile system (illustrative photo: Russian Defence Ministry) |
1. Russia - Ukraine conflict escalating to new levels
While fierce fighting continues on the frontlines in Eastern Ukraine (with a slight advantage leaning towards Russia), on 6 August 2024, Ukrainian forces suddenly attacked and occupied a large area in Russia’s Kursk province, pushing the conflict to a new level. Meanwhile, the US and the West are believed to have given Ukraine the “green light” to use precise, long-range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. In response, Moscow for the first time launched its new Oreshnik hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Notably, the outgoing Biden administration provided “emergency aid” to Kyiv, including many precise, long-range offensive weapon systems and advanced air defence systems. This not only further complicates the Russia - Ukraine conflict situation, making it more unpredictable, but also pushes relations between Russia and the US and other NATO member countries to the brink of a “comprehensive confrontation”.
2. Escalating conflict in the Middle East, with potential for wider spread
In 2024, fighting between Israel and Hamas continued to intensify in both nature and intensity; the Israeli military largely controlled the battlefield situation, carried out airstrikes on Lebanese territory (late September 2024) and a “limited” ground campaign in southern Lebanon (1 October 2024), destroying many military facilities of Hezbollah forces in the country. Meanwhile, Iran - Israel relations became tense after Tel Aviv assassinated several senior leaders of pro-Iran “proxy” forces; both Iran and Israel even conducted retaliatory offensive campaigns against each other, risking the spread of war throughout the region. However, on 27 November 2024, at the proposal of the US and France, Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement. Despite being considered a breakthrough move, paving the way for ending the cross-border conflict, it is also very fragile and could collapse at any time if the parties are not in a spirit of goodwill.
3. Russia adopting new nuclear doctrine
On 19 November 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving a new nuclear doctrine. The new doctrine adds a fifth scenario: “Moscow may use nuclear weapons if it receives reliable information about a widespread deployment of aircraft, or launch of missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles and other aircraft by the adversary, targeting the territory of the Russian Federation, crossing Russian borders or those of ally Belarus”. The new doctrine also specifies that any aggressive action by a country belonging to a military alliance against Russia or its allies will be considered an act of aggression by the entire alliance, etc. Russia’s adoption of the new nuclear doctrine comes at a time when relations between Russia and the US and NATO are at their lowest point since the “Cold War”, causing great public concern. This move helps Russia strengthen its security, national interests, and territorial sovereignty, but also faces many risks and could potentially spark a nuclear arms race among major powers, threatening global security.
4. European Union (EU) unveiling the first defence industrial strategy
On 5 March 2024, the EU unveiled its first defence industrial strategy aimed at transitioning the defence industry to a wartime footing. This is an EU effort to shift from initial emergency responses to the Russia - Ukraine conflict to improving long-term readiness of the defence industry. In a move to enhance defence capabilities, 18 EU member states signed a letter of intent focusing on sharing costs for developing common defence systems. According to a report by the European Defence Agency (EDA), member states demonstrate their determination to enhance defence capabilities with military spending increasing by 30% compared to 2021, with an expected investment of 326 billion euros in 2024, equivalent to 1.9% of the EU’s gross domestic product. This is an impressive figure showing the continent’s serious commitment to strengthening security, but also raises many concerns in the international community.
5. Tensions escalating on the Korean peninsula
The situation on the Korean peninsula has become increasingly tense as both North Korea and South Korea intensify military deterrence against each other. Notably, on 17 October 2024, North Korea decided to amend its Constitution to officially abandon the goal of reunification of the two Koreas and consider South Korea as a “hostile state”. Simultaneously, North Korea destroyed road and rail links with South Korea. For its part, South Korea announced the complete suspension of the inter-Korean military agreement, strengthened its alliance relationships, and gradually institutionalised nuclear deterrence capabilities with the United States. According to international analysts, inter-Korean relations are currently almost impossible to dialogue in the near future, and it is likely that both sides will keep the “temperature” from heating up into conflict.
6. The security of the Red Sea being under threat
The Red Sea is one of the world’s most important shipping routes; however in 2024, this body of water became the epicentre of a series of attacks, mainly by Houthi forces from Yemen. The attacks not only targeted cargo ships, seriously affecting global supply chains, but also threatened regional and international security. In response to this threat, the US, the UK, and some allies joined forces to launch an air strike campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen, aimed at containing and destroying this organisation. International security experts believe that to completely prevent the Houthis’ ability to launch attacks, the US and allied air strike campaign may have to last for many months, even years; at the same time, it must be combined with many other measures.
7. Alarming global terrorism threat levels
Right from the beginning of the year (4 January 2024), the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for two explosions that occurred on 3 January 2024, killing more than 100 people and injuring nearly 300 at a ceremony in Kerman city, southeastern Iran. Subsequently, on 22 March 2024, IS carried out a shooting and gasoline bombing in the outskirts of Moscow, killing 145 people and injuring 551. The attackers, dressed in camouflage, opened fire on the crowd attending the Picnic band’s event at the Crocus City Hall in Krasnogorsk - a city adjacent to the western part of Russia’s capital Moscow. This is one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in Russia in decades. Also in 2024, IS “tentacles” carried out many terrorist attacks in many other places, such as: Turkey, Pakistan, Mozambique, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Oman, etc. According to updates from the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), the number of deaths due to terrorism has increased to the highest level since 2017. Given the current instability in the Middle East and many regions around the world, security experts predict that terrorist threats will continue to increase in both number and intensity in the coming time.
8. The collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria
After more than a week of fierce fighting, on 8 December 2024, rebel forces led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group declared the liberation of Damascus, officially marking the end of the al-Assad family’s regime in Syria. International analysts attribute the rapid collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's government to excessive dependence on external aid, low morale, and the deteriorating combat capabilities of the army. According to international military experts, the rapid developments in Syria have fundamentally altered the geostrategic landscape, significantly impacting the course of wars and conflicts involving multiple parties in the region.
9. Sweden Joining NATO
On 7 March 2024, Sweden officially joined NATO, becoming the 32nd member after over 200 years of neutrality. By joining NATO, Sweden is obligated to adhere to the alliance’s terms but also benefits from its collective defence guarantee. According to Article 5 of the treaty: “An attack against one member is considered an attack against the entire alliance”. NATO leaders hailed Sweden’s membership as a “historic milestone” and expressed confidence that “Sweden’s capable armed forces and first-class defence industry will make NATO stronger, Sweden safer, and the entire alliance more secure”. The accession of Finland to NATO in 2023, followed by Sweden - two countries with centuries of neutrality and sharing a 1,340km border with Russia - has raised concerns in the international community.
10. Large-scale military exercises conducted worldwide
In 2024, NATO conducted a series of large-scale exercises, notably Steadfast Defender, involving about 90,000 troops and 1,100 combat vehicles, lasting from late January to May 2024, and Baltops 2024 (4 June - 22 June 2024) in the Baltic Sea, the largest naval exercise with 50 warships, 45 fighter aircraft, and about 9,000 personnel, including 4,000 troops from 21 member countries.
The US also led several significant drills with allies and partners across various regions in 2024, notably the first joint US-UK-Australia exercise under AUKUS. The US also coordinated mixed exercises with South Korea and Japan in collaboration with Australia and Canada to enhance coordination in addressing regional challenges. Besides the US and NATO, China organised several large-scale exercises, including joint operations of various military branches, creating a “strong deterrence” capability against adversaries. Russia also conducted numerous large-scale exercises, including the joint Russia-Belarus tactical nuclear exercise from 21 May 2024 to late June 2024, aimed at “maintaining the combat readiness of tactical nuclear weapon operating units”. This was followed by the large-scale strategic naval exercise Ocean-2024, conducted simultaneously in the Pacific, Arctic, Mediterranean, Caspian, and Baltic Seas, involving over 400 warships, about 120 aircraft, and over 90,000 personnel; China sent 4 warships and 15 aircraft to participate in this exercise. According to Russian President Putin, the purpose of the strategic naval exercise was to assess the combat readiness of the Russian navy and air force and to test the interoperability of Russian forces in joint operations.