Humanity has not witnessed another global war since World War II ended 80 years ago. However, the recent growing tendency among countries to use force to resolve disputes and disagreements has raised doubts about world peace. What is the essence of this issue? This article aims to provide an additional perspective.

Currently, although peace, cooperation, and development remain the prevailing trend, the world situation has shown warning signs.

A United Nations Security Council’s Meeting in New York, United States (photo: United Nations)

According to a report by the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), the year 2024 saw the highest number of conflicts worldwide since the end of World War II, with 61 conflicts across 36 countries. Among these, Africa remained the most unstable region with 28 conflicts, followed by Asia (17) and the Middle East (10), etc. Notably, East Asia has many potential flashpoints, ranging from the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait all of which are directly related to strategic rivalry among major countries and centres of power.

Since the beginning of 2025, the Russia - Ukraine conflict has shown no signs of ending. Meanwhile, conflicts in the Middle East, US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a brief border clash between India and Pakistan, as well as military skirmishes along the Thailand - Cambodia border have further heightened international community concerns, as they have serious consequences for regional and global peace and stability. Particularly alarming are statements by President Donald Trump’s Administration during his second term regarding territorial issues involving Canada, Greenland, and Gaza, which have raised fears of the risk of using force in relations between major powers and smaller countries.

According to several experts, the world today is seemingly more prone to division and conflict than it was in the previous decade. The fact that hundreds of thousands of people have been killed or injured, and many families have been displaced due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and so on raises the question: Do peace, cooperation, and development still remain the world’s prevailing trend? And what causes the current increase in conflicts which threaten world peace, cooperation, and development?

Looking back at world history over the past 500 years, scholar Graham Allison notes that out of 16 instances of “power transition” that shaped the world order, only 4 occurred peacefully, while 12 involved war and conflict. Given recent developments, many scholars argue that the world is entering a transitional phase, shifting from the old order to a new one. Even the US, the major power that played a key role in designing and building the post-World War II world order, is no longer satisfied with the current order. According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the current world order is not only outdated, but also weaponised against Washington’s interests. Moreover, some scholars argue that when both rising powers and established powers are dissatisfied with the existing world order, its demise is only a matter of time. And the process of transition from the old to the new order, as shown in history, is often accompanied by instability. The question is whether or not this transition will once again be marked by wars and conflicts, as in the past.

In the current global context, the vast majority of international researchers believe that there are many reasons for humanity to remain optimistic about the global trend of peace, cooperation, and development.

First, world peace is generally understood as the absence of war among major powers. In that sense, it is unlikely that world peace will be threatened in the near future. International opinion holds that although strategic competition among major powers is becoming increasingly intense, especially between the US and China and Russia, the existence of nuclear weapons makes it clear to these major powers that waging war against each other with nuclear weapons would amount to collective suicide. In a war where parties use nuclear weapons, there will be no winners and all will be losers. This is perhaps a crucial “brake” that forces major powers to carefully weigh up any intention to redraw the world map through war. International opinion maintains that the US’s approach towards China and Russia during President Donald Trump’s second term shows that Washington still values dialogue and engagement, even promoting it more strongly in some aspects compared to the first term. Regarding China, this country has also embraced the principle of “fighting without breaking” in its relations with the US, whereby both sides continue to accept the approach of combining cooperation and competition while maintaining peaceful coexistence. Another notable example is the recent border conflict between the two nuclear-armed nations, India and Pakistan, which ended quickly with both sides using only conventional weapons and refraining from resorting to nuclear arms.

Second, although the number of ongoing conflicts is high, this phenomenon is not common within or between countries. Currently, 36 countries are entangled in conflicts out of a total of over 200 countries worldwide. This means that the majority of countries in the world are still at peace. In today’s highly globalised and interdependent world, peace, cooperation, and development remain a priority in international relations. Research statistics show that in the past 65 years since the end of World War II, the number of territories annexed by force sharply decreased to only 6% compared to the previous century. Thus, war is no longer the primary tool for promoting national interests and refraining from the use or threat of force has become one of the most widely recognised principles in international relations. Dialogue instead of confrontation, and cooperation for development, remain the sustainable approach for each country to enhance its overall strength as well as its role and position on the regional and international stage.

Third, the growing interconnection of interests among parties reduces the probability of confrontation and conflict. The more economically interdependent countries are, the lower the likelihood of war and conflict is. While imports and exports accounted for only 10% of global GDP in 1945, today the figure has increased to approximately 58%. According to researchers, since the end of World War II, about 250,000 bilateral and multilateral treaties and agreements have been signed, binding the interests and behaviours of countries together. Even the US and China, the two biggest strategic competitors, have a high degree of interdependence, with bilateral trade turnover reaching nearly 600 billion USD in 2024 and also deeply intertwined interests in investment, finance, supply chains for necessities, etc. In the past, major powers often used war to annex territory, markets, resources, etc. Today, however, there are many more sophisticated and effective means to achieve similar goals without resorting to force, such as through economic, financial, and informational tools, etc. The successful lesson of reconciliation and enhancing intertwined interests among former adversaries to eliminate the seeds of war and conflict has also been successfully applied by many countries.

Fourth, the power of public opinion and the role of multilateral institutions are becoming increasingly important, serving as a factor that warmongering forces must take into account. In the past, limited access to information and public awareness allowed governments of aggressive powers, such as Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy during World War II, to manipulate public opinion and incite extreme nationalism to advance their war intentions. Today, the general level of public awareness worldwide, even in developing and underdeveloped countries, has been raised through various means, especially the widespread availability of information via the Internet and social media. In the past, images of wars and conflicts took days, even months, to reach world public opinion, whereas today they can be updated in real-time through modern media channels. This increases the political and social pressure from public opinion, the press, and the media on acts of war. For example, the images of Palestinian civilians being killed on a daily basis, and children suffering from severe malnutrition due to harsh restrictions on humanitarian aids in Gaza have sparked widespread outrage, forcing the warring side to face increased international isolation, even from its allies.

Particularly, the role of the United Nations and multilateral institutions remains extremely important for peace, cooperation, and development in the world, although the rise of power politics and major power strategic competition has somewhat affected their effectiveness in recent times. However, no organisation has been able to replace the United Nations and the UN-centred international system so far. Multilateralism and international law continue to serve as the primary safeguards for countries, especially small and medium-sized countries, to protect their legitimate and lawful interests. In practice, while the US under President Donald Trump’s administration is the only country to have withdrawn from several United Nations bodies, such as the World Health Organisation (WHO), the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), other member countries have not followed suit.

In summary, although the world is increasingly confronted with new obstacles and challenges, peace, cooperation, and development remain the prevailing trend. Humanity is witnessing epoch-making changes, but what remains unchanged is that peace, cooperation, and development continue to be the common aspiration of all nations. Hence, countries around the world need to reinforce a culture of dialogue and cooperation to contribute to maintaining peace, stability, and development.

In the 20th century, humanity witnessed two extremely devastating world wars and one Cold War accompanied by many “proxy conflicts”. Stepping into the 21st century, alongside the rapid development of science and technology, the world has also witnessed the emergence and destructive potential of hi-tech warfare. Therefore, the lessons of both hot or cold wars remain relevant, serving as the basis for countries and progressive forces globally to continue consolidating and promoting the trend of peace, cooperation, and development, for a peaceful and prosperous world for all nations.

VU DUY THANH, PhD

Ministry of Foreign Affairs