The Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its fourth year and has become the most complex geopolitical flashpoint since the Cold War, with far-reaching implications for regional and world order. In the context of fierce fighting and diplomatic efforts still facing multiple deadlocks, a number of scenarios for the end of this conflict have been proposed by the parties involved with great attention from the international community.

Scenarios of the US and NATO

This scenario is based on an immutable principle: war is a political succession by means of armed violence. Therefore, to be able to predict the scenario for the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is necessary to start from the political goals of the parties in this conflict. According to international researchers, on the surface, this is a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, in essence, it is a "proxy war" of NATO and Western countries using Ukraine to fight Russia. The political goal of Western countries in this war was publicly declared by President Joe Biden and officials in the leadership of NATO and the EU that Russia would be forced to suffer a "strategic defeat" with a comprehensive crisis and disintegration. At that time, the US, NATO and Western countries would "eliminate" the biggest obstacle to the effort to maintain the domination of the world order that has been formed since the Cold War. Russia's goal in conducting this special military campaign is to neutralise the direct security risks arising from the strategies of the US, NATO and Western countries towards Russia.

International public opinion believes that after more than three years of conflict, the calculations of the US and NATO have initially failed. Russia has gradually achieved its goals, maintained political and socio-economic stability, and become the leading economy in Europe and the fourth largest in the world (in terms of purchasing power parity). At the same time, it is still at the forefront of the trend of building a multipolar world order. According to US Vice President James David Vance, the effort to maintain a unipolar world order dominated by Washington is not only an illusion but also a danger, because the world order is moving towards multipolarity, in which Russia's role is indispensable. Therefore, the scenario to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict proposed by the US and NATO, headed by President Donald Trump, is: recognising Russia's sovereignty over Crimea and not supporting NATO's policy of admitting Ukraine as a member. However, some NATO member countries, such as France, Germany and the UK, still support the policy of continuing to provide comprehensive support to Ukraine so that Russia "cannot win" in this conflict, arguing that if Russia wins in Ukraine, the next target may be other countries in Europe.

Russian delegation met its Ukrainian counterpart in Istanbul, Turkey in June 2025

Scenario proposed by the combatants

For Russia: During the negotiations on 02 June 2025, Russia presented Ukraine with a memorandum on the conditions for ending the conflict consisting of three parts.

Part 1 sets out the requirements for Ukraine to implement: recognise the international legitimacy of Moscow's annexation of Crimea and the four regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson; withdraw Ukrainian military forces from the regions annexed by Russia; accept permanent neutral status; third countries are not allowed to conduct military operations, deploy forces or establish military bases on Ukraine’s territory; the Kiev government terminates all existing international treaties and agreements that Ukraine has signed and rejects any similar agreements in the future; accepts the status of a state without nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction; builds only limited armed forces and disbands all nationalist forces; must fully guarantee the rights and interests of the Russian people, Russian speakers and establish the official status of the Russian language in Ukraine; the Kiev authorities must enact laws prohibiting the glorification and propaganda of Nazism and neo-Nazism; disband nationalist organisations and parties; remove all sanctions and economic embargoes against Russia; resolve issues related to family reunification and emigration; both Ukraine and Russia renounce claims for compensation for damage incurred during the hostilities; remove restrictions on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church; gradually restore diplomatic and economic relations (including gas transit), other transport links between Russia and Ukraine and with third countries.

Part 2, sets out the conditions for a ceasefire under two options. Option 1: the armed forces and other paramilitary forces of Ukraine must withdraw from the territories annexed to Russia; at the same time, the armed forces of Ukraine must withdraw from the border of the Russian Federation to a distance agreed upon by both parties. Option 2 is called the “package solution”. According to this option, Ukraine must not redeploy its armed forces and other paramilitary forces, except for the withdrawal from the border of the Russian Federation to a distance agreed upon by both parties; recruitment activities must be stopped and the disarmament process must begin; other countries must stop providing military aid to Ukraine; the military presence of third countries on the territory of Ukraine must be eliminated and foreign experts must stop participating in the military activities of Ukraine; Kiev must abandon sabotage and subversive activities against the Russian Federation and its citizens; a bilateral centre for monitoring and controlling the ceasefire regime must be established; mutual amnesty for political prisoners and release of detained civilians; lifting of martial law in Ukraine; Ukraine announcing the date of presidential and parliamentary elections, no later than 100 days after lifting of martial law; signing of an agreement to implement the above provisions.

Part 3, defining the sequence of steps and time of implementation that the two sides begin drafting the text of the peace treaty; declaring a ceasefire for two to three days to collect the bodies of those killed in the “grey zone”; Russia unilaterally transferring to Ukraine the bodies of servicemen of Ukraine’s Armed Forces; Russia and Ukraine will sign a memorandum on the ceasefire at a specific time and determine the date of signing the final peace treaty; the 30-day ceasefire will come into effect from the moment the Ukraine’s Armed Forces begin to withdraw from the territory of the Russian Federation and fully implement the “package agreement” within 30 days of the ceasefire; conduct elections and establish government bodies on Ukraine’s territory; the two sides sign a peace treaty, which will be approved by the United Nations Security Council with international legal value; Russia and Ukraine will ratify the peace treaty for implementation.

For Ukraine: at the talks in Istanbul on 02 June 2025, Ukraine transferred to Russia a memorandum on the conditions for ending the conflict. It includes basic contents such as: the two sides accept a comprehensive and unconditional ceasefire in the air, on land and at sea; implement confidence-building measures including the exchange of prisoners on the principle of “all for all”, return Ukrainian children who have been deported or transferred to Russia and release “all civilian prisoners”; reserve Ukraine’s right to join the EU and NATO; no limit on the number of Ukraine’s Armed Forces; foreign armies have the right to deploy forces and bases on Ukraine’s territory; Kiev authorities and the international community do not recognise Russia's territorial changes since February 2014; negotiations on the territorial issue can only be discussed after a comprehensive and unconditional ceasefire; sanctions against Russia can only be lifted gradually and can be extended if necessary; frozen Russian assets can be used to rebuild Ukraine or will remain frozen while Russia has not paid war reparations to Ukraine; after the Istanbul talks, further negotiations must be held with the participation of the United States and Europe; a comprehensive ceasefire must be implemented for at least 30 days and can be extended under US supervision with the support of third countries.

Thus, the basic conditions proposed by Russia and Ukraine to end the conflict are completely opposite. Therefore, according to international research experts, the scenario in which the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends will depend entirely on the situation on the battlefield.

Conflict freezing scenario

In addition to the above scenarios, US President Donald Trump and some experts also proposed the "conflict freezing" scenario, also known as the "temporary ceasefire scenario" or the "Korean scenario". According to this scenario, Russia and Ukraine will temporarily cease hostilities along the demarcation line along the contact line of the two sides, which is nearly 1,000 km long, and establish a demilitarised zone around this line. There will be a "peacekeeping" force from Europe or the United Nations to monitor the ceasefire. However, Russia has declared that it does not accept this scenario because it believes that the Kiev government will take advantage of the ceasefire to receive more new weapons and recruit more forces to regain the initiative to carry out a strategic counterattack against Russia in the context of NATO's readiness to rearm Ukraine. Some officials believe that this scenario will not lead to lasting peace, not even like on the Korean Peninsula, but only a period of calm between two periods of fierce fighting.

"Finland scenario"

In addition to the above scenarios, some countries and international researchers have also proposed another scenario called the "Finland scenario". According to this scenario, Ukraine still maintains a democratic regime and is relatively free in foreign policy, but is obliged to maintain neutrality and limit the number of armed forces as well as the number of heavy weapons; The Kiev government recognises the status quo of the four regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson controlled by Russia but does not officially recognise them as Russian territory; Moscow does not interfere in Ukraine's internal affairs, and accepts Ukraine maintaining relations with the West, including joining the EU. However, whether this scenario can be implemented or not still depends on several factors, especially the Moscow and Kiev governments.

According to world political and military researchers, there is still no certain scenario for ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, the world understands that the end of the above conflict will not only shape the future of these two countries but also test the resilience of international legal principles, and will also contribute to reshaping the regional security structure and possibly the world order for decades to come. International public opinion hopes that, in any scenario, the Russia-Ukraine conflict needs to end soon to bring peace and stability to the region and the world.

Senior Colonel LE THE MAU