On 8 April 2024, the Canadian government announced "A Renewed Vision for Canada's Defence" to remake the Canadian Armed Forces as a technologically advanced fighting force firmly protecting sovereignty and national interests in the Arctic. This is considered a new move, affirming and strengthening the country's strategic role in maintaining peace and stability in the region and the world.

In 2017, Canada announced the "Strong, Secure and Engaged" defence policy to focus on protecting territorial sovereignty, strengthening defence cooperation with the United States based on the North American common defence cooperation framework (NORAD - bi-national military organisation for aerospace warning and protection of the United States and Canada) and maintaining a global presence through international missions to affirm Canada's role in maintaining peace and stability in the region and the world. After implementation, the 2017 Defence Policy has basically achieved its set goals, but also revealed certain limitations, such as: lack of specific measures to deal with new security challenges; not providing appropriate resources to modernise the surveillance system and defence capabilities; delay in the construction of military infrastructure; the North Warning System (NWS) is not capable of detecting new threats (cruise and ballistic missiles) and especially there is no plan to protect the Arctic region. In addition, the 2017 Defence Policy has not kept up with the rapidly changing climate and the rapid development of science and technology - issues that help Canada easily access and increase its influence to protect sovereignty and national interests in the Arctic.

The Sikorsky CH-148 Helicopter of the Canadian Royal Air Force

Reasons for the adjustment

The Arctic is home to rich, untapped natural resources, with huge reserves of oil, gas, nickel, platinum, palladium, rare earths, etc. In recent years, climate change has caused global temperatures to gradually warm, leading to the melting of ice in the polar regions and the Arctic becoming more accessible, attracting resource exploration activities, opening up new strategic shipping routes. For Canada, the potential in the Arctic not only promises to bring huge economic benefits (through resource exploitation and transportation via new shipping routes), but also helps the country strengthen its strategic position in the region. This is the great driving force behind the Canadian government's adjustment of its defence policy.

However, according to international researchers, the underlying reason why Prime Minister Trudeau's administration has to adjust its defence policy is that Canada's sovereignty and national interests in the Arctic are being threatened by the increasing influence of major powers. In fact, Russia has long considered the Arctic an inseparable part of its national interests and Moscow has continuously maintained a military presence and increased investment in infrastructure construction there. This is demonstrated by the fact that Russia maintains the world's largest icebreaker fleet in the Arctic with more than 40 ships, including nuclear ships; completed the military complex on Alexandra Island (in 2016), including airbase, housing, airport, air traffic control system, air defence and radar. In addition, Russia has also upgraded the Nagurskoye airbase and established a new air defence division, turning these two locations into bases for deploying military power towards the Central Arctic and the North Atlantic. Russia also conducts exercises, tests hypersonic missiles and unmanned vehicles in this area to assert its ability to control airspace and sea. Notably, in August 2023, Russia launched a large-scale exercise to protect shipping routes through the “Northeast Passage”, with the participation of 8,000 soldiers, 20 surface ships and submarines, 50 aircraft and numerous ground support vehicles.

Along with Russia, China also aims to become a “polar power” and is increasing its influence in the Arctic. In January 2018, the country launched the “Polar Silk Road” programme; at the same time, it declared itself a “Near-Arctic State”. In 2019, Beijing launched its first domestic icebreaker Xuelong 2 (Snow Dragon 2), capable of breaking ice in two directions to enhance its operational capacity in polar regions, including the Arctic. As of July 2021, Xuelong 2 had made 12 Arctic expeditions. China now sees the Arctic as a “new strategic frontier” and is increasing its military presence, while considering it a future area of ​​competition. To realise its strategic goals in the polar regions, Beijing intends to deploy its fleet and build research infrastructure in Iceland and Norway; using infrastructure projects in the polar regions for dual purposes. China also wants to take advantage of changes in the Arctic to increase its influence and assert access to this important region.

In addition, recent cooperation between Russia and China in the Arctic has also raised concerns in Canada. Russia-China cooperation in the Arctic focuses on the fields of: military, energy, science, development of the Northern Sea Route, and construction of coastal infrastructure. In 2019, the two countries established the “China-Russia Arctic Research Centre”; in 2022 and 2023, the two countries' navies operated together in international waters off Alaska. Most recently, in October 2024, for the first time, a Chinese coast guard fleet and its Russian counterpart conducted joint patrols in the Arctic Ocean area.

Another reason for Canada to adjust its defence policy is pressure from the United States and NATO member states to increase defence spending to 2% of GDP as committed. Canada is currently a country with a low defence contribution to NATO, causing the US and its allies to worry about its ability to ensure security and share the regional burden. This issue is becoming more urgent as the competition for influence among the powers in the Arctic is showing signs of heating up, requiring Canada to have solutions to improve its defence capacity to meet the expectations of strategic partners as well as protect security and national interests in this important region.

Adjusted content

On 8 April 2024, the Trudeau government announced a new Defence Policy called "Our North, Strong and Free". According to international researchers, this new Defence Policy basically overcomes the limitations of the 2017 Defence Policy; at the same time, it is highly oriented in the coming decades, with 04 notable contents.

First, improve the capacity of the military to protect sovereignty and national security in the Arctic. Accordingly, the Canadian government plans to invest about 73 billion USD over 20 years to strengthen and enhance the strength of the Canadian Armed Forces. In the next 5 years, the country will spend 8.1 billion USD to enhance remote monitoring capabilities, improve the response capabilities of the armed forces to protect remote territories of the Arctic - a region facing non-traditional security challenges and increasing influence of major powers.

Second, improve the capacity of the North American defence system and promote cooperation with the United States. According to the new defence policy, Canada will allocate a budget of up to 6.38 billion USD to supplement the number of short- and medium-range air-to-air missiles; purchase long-range air-to-air missiles to equip the CF-18 and F-35 (new) fighter jets to counter threats from cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles. In addition, together with the United States, focus on improving defence and deterrence coordination capabilities through the modernisation of NORAD to respond to potential threats. The scope of cooperation with the United States will be comprehensively deployed in the fields of air, land, sea, space and cyber environment. In 2022, Canada approved a $38.6 billion investment to upgrade the command, surveillance, aviation defence system and build infrastructure for the North American Aerospace Defence Command, to address challenges from climate change, geopolitics and protect Arctic sovereignty. This investment will be disbursed over the next 20 years and is considered part of Canada's new defence policy.

Third, orienting the development and application of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). Canada will focus on investing in artificial intelligence to improve the ability to identify and manage information in cyberspace, helping to speed up the decision-making process and improve target identification. AI will assist in controlling autonomous systems and enhancing the ability to respond to attacks and remote jamming operations to ensure national security and enhance defence capabilities in a rapidly changing strategic environment. UAV systems and technologies to counter UAV threats will also be focused on by Canada in the coming time to ensure the safety of its forces. In addition, the country also promotes defence technology innovation through cooperation with the private sector and startups to maintain technological advantages and enhance national security.

Fourth, attach importance to cooperation with the Indo-Pacific region. Accordingly, the Trudeau government will strengthen cooperation with countries in the region, increase military presence in the Indo-Pacific and commit to participating in international exercises to protect freedom of navigation, human rights and the international legal system.

Difficulties and prospects

According to experts, the Trudeau government's new defence policy reflects Canada's multi-dimensional defence strategy. It is a driving force for Ottawa to consolidate and strengthen relations with countries and strategic allies, aiming to protect sovereignty and national interests in the Arctic as well as maintain stability in the region. In addition, it is also a necessary supplement to the Indo-Pacific strategy (announced in 2022) - a comprehensive strategy that helps Canada affirm its position, role and presence in the Indo-Pacific region. However, there are opinions that Canada's strengthening of its power to protect the Arctic will reduce the capacity and effectiveness of implementing the Indo-Pacific strategy as having to spread resources in the context of limited budgets. In addition, the allocation of finance and the spread of forces to many different regions also challenge this country with several difficulties. Therefore, whether Canada's new defence policy can achieve its goals or not is still an open question. In addition, countries in the region and the world hope that Canada's new defence policy will not have a negative impact on peace and stability in the region and the world.

HONG QUANG - THAI LINH