Gabon followed Niger to become the next card in the domino effect of coups that shake West and Central Africa. In less than three years, eight military coups have occurred in this region, causing the international community to worry that the wave of subversion will not stop, pushing the continent back into the spiral of coups as in the past with unpredictable consequences.
New victims, old causes
On August 30, 2023, just a few minutes after the announcement by the national election agency, Gabon President Ali Bongo Ondimba - who “won” the third term, was deposed by military forces. The 64-year-old leader is under house arrest and faces accusations of election fraud and corruption during his time in power in the country. The coup leaders established an interim committee to run the country, declaring the suspension of the Constitution and closing the borders indefinitely. General Brice Oligui Nguema, Commander of the Gabonese Republican Guard, was appointed Chairman of the Committee for Transition and Institutional Restoration (CTRI). Shortly after the swift coup, on September 4, Mr. Brice Oligui Nguema was sworn in as interim President and appointed politician Raymond Ndong Sima as the new Prime Minister to lead the country to continue implementing Gabon's domestic and foreign commitments.
The coup that ended the Bongo family's 56-year rule did not come as a surprise, because this was not the first time the government of former President Ali Bongo Ondimba was shaken by overthrow plots. Two similar events took place in 2016 and 2019 but pro-government forces had promptly “rescued” successfully. However, this regime change in Gabon is shocking because a military coup has shaken Niger not long before. Accordingly, on July 26, 2023, General Abdourahamane Tiani, head of the Niger President's protection force, led the coup force to announce the arrest and overthrow of the 2021-elected President, Mr. Mohamed Bazoum. The similar scenario appeared to Gabon, when the coup group ordered the closure of national borders, suspended state institutions, abolished the Constitution, and issued a curfew; At the same time, it warns against any foreign interference. Two days later, Mr. Abdourahamane Tiani announced himself as the new leader of the military government during the transition period, despite not being recognised internationally. This is the fifth military coup since Niger gained independence in 1960.
However, this record is not at all unique. According to statistics, Africa leads the world in the number of coups with no less than 214 coups from 1952 to present, 106 of which were successful. Of the 54 countries on the Dark Continent, 45 have recorded at least one coup attempt. There are many reasons why Africa holds this cheerless “title” and so far, the “common denominator” for overthrows has not changed.
The first factor to mention is the economic inequality and poverty. According to the World Bank, the richest 10% of people in Africa control more than 40% of the wealth, while the poorest 50% share less than 10% of the wealth. Such high level of inequality leads to popular discontent, social unrest and makes people more inclined to support the coup forces - who promise to improve the economy to bring them a fuller life. This can be clearly seen in Niger - a former French colony that gained independence in 1960 with a population of about 25 million people. This West African country ranks 7th among the world's largest uranium exporters, has gold mines and a large oil reserve. However, Niger currently has more than 10 million people (equivalent to 41% of population) living in extreme poverty. This country is ranked 189/191 by the United Nations on the human development index, and is also ranked 7th among the poorest countries in the world. Foreign aid accounts for up to 40% of the national treasury. Therefore, contrary to the usual fear of regime change, thousands of Nigeriens gathered in the capital Niamey to march to show support for the coup forces that overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum.
Besides economic inequality and poverty, corruption is a serious problem in many countries on the Dark Continent. According to Transparency International's 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index, 43 out of 54 surveyed African countries ranked below 50, indicating serious corruption. Along with the greed and plunder of the leadership, the failure of public policies and poor management of the government are the causes of people's discontent, eroding public trust. Coups are often welcomed by the people, in the context of elected leaders' inability to meet the most basic expectations of the people such as access to water, electricity, food, essential necessities, etc… Also, they are welcomed as a legal regime change “option” in the hope that the new government will be less greedy. Sadly, however, many subversive forces tend to commit the same mistakes that they themselves have previously condemned.
Another reason why Africa is trapped in a cycle of coups is the lack of democratic foundations in many countries. In fact, when they gain power, leaders often change the term-limiting terms in the constitution. Those undemocratic reforms have allowed some presidents to run for re-election indefinitely and possibly stay in power for life. Gabon is a typical example. Before being forced from power by the military, former President Ali Bongo Ondimba was seeking his third term in office since taking office in 2009 after the death of his father Omar Bongo, who ruled Gabon with “iron fist” for more than 40 years.
Unstable security is an important cause. To this day, many African countries still face challenges such as terrorism, insurgency and organised crime. This created a power vacuum that military leaders could exploit to overthrow governments. Niger is a typical example. Although France has 1,500 soldiers stationed here, while 1,000 US troops present in the country for the anti-terrorism mission, for a long time, Muslim terrorist groups have been very active in the Sahel region (the area extending from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea). In southeastern Niger, the Boko-Haram group occupies the area around Lake Chad, between Nigeria and Chad. In the southwest, Al-Qaeda and Daesh groups continue to control some territories on the border with Mali and Burkina Faso. Therefore, Niger is frequently attacked with thousands of casualties in just a few years. According to the British Foreign Office, from January 2020 to August 2022, this country in the heart of the Sahel region suffered no less than 13 attacks.
In addition, there are a number of other factors that make Africa the focus of the coup wave. The most common thing is that outside forces, mainly major powers, can incite subversion and support political upheavals to promote their own interests, such as accessing natural resources or exerting influence on the political direction of a country on this continent.
Long-term implications
After being forced to leave the Central African Republic, Mali and Burkina Faso, France is starting negotiations to reduce the size or withdraw its troops from Niger at the request of military governments. Political upheavals in countries in the region considered France's traditional zone of influence over the past decades have shown that Paris' role is increasingly seriously decreasing. The “anti-French” sentiment of people in many countries on the Dark Continent tends to increase in a worrying way. Meanwhile, Russia, China, and Turkey - countries that have implemented many policies to promote their presence in Africa - have continuously gained advantages, leading to a change in the geopolitical balance in Africa.
The two overthrows in Niger and Gabon also continued a dangerous wave of coups in Africa with many serious consequences. First of all, mutinies have weakened democratic institutions on the continent. Many civilian governments, including many elected leaders, have been overthrown by military forces, leading to political and social unrest. Coups also erode people's trust in institutions leading to increased conflict and violence, especially between groups supporting and opposing the interim government. This further complicates the already weak security situation and deepens divisions in the society.
In the economic aspect, regime change in African countries, mostly poor ones, will continue to negatively impact those economy as well as the entire continent. Overall, coups are followed by economic disruption, reduced investment and growth. Political instability makes foreign investors hesitant to seek business opportunities in Africa. The inevitable consequence is that people's income declines, leading to increased poverty and inequality. Sanctions by the international community against the in-power coup forces will ultimately only pile up more hardship for people who are already struggling every day with climate change, poverty and unstable security.
The wave of coups also increases the risk of terrorism on the Dark Continent. Extremist groups hiding in the area can take advantage of the political instability to carry out attacks. For example, under former President Mohamed Bazoum, Niger was an important partner of international forces to deal with the fighters of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda. Therefore, the security vacuum after the coup in this country can benefit armed groups and directly affect anti-terrorism efforts. The Dark Continent is at risk of becoming a base and safe haven for international extremist groups to expand their reputation, recruit members and carry out attacks inside and outside the region.
Developments in West and Central Africa are also sowing the division between countries on this continent. Currently in Africa, two opposing sides are forming, including some countries that support the coup forces and those that openly condemn the actions to seize power as undemocratic. Among those, the governments of Mali and Burkina Faso warned that “any military intervention in Niger to bring down the coup government will be considered against their countries.” In contrast, members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), led by Benin and Ivory Coast, support the use of force to restore the recently overthrown regime in Niger. Thus, it can be seen that the possibility of conflicts between African countries will easily occur without a well management. This shows the complexity in efforts to resolve the crisis to end the terrifying chain of coups on the continent.
VAN KHANH - THE HIEP