The military campaign conducted by the Azerbaijani Army in Nagorno - Karabakh (September 2023) quickly ended, completely liberating the area under Armenian separatist forces’ control for more than three decades, creating an important “turning point” in resolving conflicts in this region. The impact of this turning point on the region is an issue that needs further attention and research.

“Turning point” in the conflict

Nagorno – Karabakh, located in West Azerbaijan, is an area of about 4,400 km2, of which more than 90% of the population are Armenians, and has long been a fiercely disputed area between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Historically, both Azerbaijan and Armenia considered Nagorno - Karabakh to be a “symbolic” land of history, culture and an important strategic area, so they both have “uncompromising” sovereign claims. In July 1918, the first Armenian Parliament of Nagorno - Karabakh declared that this area was a “self-governing land” and established its own parliament and government. The Azerbaijani government at that time strongly objected and considered this an “unacceptable” action. Under the Soviet Union, the conflict between the two sides subsided, and Nagorno - Karabakh was built into an “autonomous region”, managed by the Azerbaijani government, but the fire of “nationalism” still smoldered among the Armenian people. In the late 80s of the twentieth century, nationalism broke out, and disagreements between Armenians and Azerbaijanis also began to intensify. At its peak in 1988, Nagorno-Karabakh voted to quit Azerbaijan and merge with Armenia. This action was, of course, rejected by the Moscow authorities and the international community. The Soviet Union and the United Nations still considered Nagorno - Karabakh as Azerbaijan’s. In 1991, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan abolished the “autonomous” status of Nagorno - Karabakh and placed this territory under the direct control of the central government. In response, on December 10, 1991, Armenians in Nagorno - Karabakh held a referendum, choosing to establish an independent Nagorno - Karabakh Republic (NKR), expressing their desire to unite with Armenia. That worsened the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenian separatist forces in Nagorno - Karabakh and the Armenian government. That was also the reason why the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out (in 1993), killing more than 30,000 people. The fighting only ended (in 1994) when Russia acted as a mediator, and Armenian separatist forces continued to control Nagorno - Karabakh and surrounding areas. Thus, although Nagorno - Karabakh is still a part of Azerbaijan, this land is led by Armenian separatist forces which were supported by the Armenian Government. Because of this complexity, the Russia-mediated agreement still could not ease the simmering conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Minor clashes between the two sides still regularly erupted in Nagorno - Karabakh. In 2020, a major military confrontation between the two sides broke out in this area (for 6 weeks), killing thousands of people. In this war, Azerbaijan gained many advantages over Armenia thanks to the support of several related countries. By November 2020, Russia once again meditated and a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia was signed. According to the agreement, Azerbaijan regained all territory around the Nagorno - Karabakh area controlled by Armenia since 1994; Armenia must withdraw its troops from Nagorno - Karabakh; Armenian separatists only governed a small part of Nagorno - Karabakh. To monitor the implementation of the agreement by the parties, Russia dispatched about 2,000 troops here. However, since the end of 2022, clashes between Armenian separatists and Azerbaijan's border guards have continuously erupted. In particular, on September 19, 2023, Baku accused the NKR armed groups of conducting “terrorist activities” that killed many Azerbaijani soldiers. Baku then opened a military campaign called “anti-terrorism” aiming at Armenian separatist forces in Nagorno - Karabakh. The fighting was fierce, the Armenian separatists were defeated after one day (September 20, 2023); At the same time, they announced their surrender, accepted the disarmament of forces and weapons, and agreed to return the land they have controlled for the past three decades in Nagorno - Karabakh to Azerbaijan.

According to experts, the military campaign that the Azerbaijan Army recently conducted in Nagorno - Karabakh was timed carefully to gain the greatest strategic and military advantage. As a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) along with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia was supported by Russia in the Nagorno - Karabakh conflict, yet its relationship with Russia has worsened since pro-Western Nikol Pashinyan became the Prime Minister of Armenia. He insisted that Russia is “leaving the region” and Armenia's dependence on Russia's security was a “strategic mistake”. In addition, his government also announced that it would conduct joint exercises with the US - an activity criticised by Russia as an “unfriendly step”. Also according to researchers, Yerevan's “distancing” from Moscow might be a mistake, it would weaken the support for separatist forces in Nagorno – Karabakh. It simultaneously created an “unparalleled” opportunity for Azerbaijan to successfully conduct a military campaign, which was the important “turning point” in the Nagorno - Karabakh conflict. When the war broke out, Moscow said that Azerbaijan's “anti-terrorism” military campaign was conducted on its territory, and Moscow could not do anything since Yerevan recognised Nagorno - Karabakh as belonging to Azerbaijan's sovereignty; Russian peacekeeping forces in this area only played the role of humanitarian relief and evacuating people from the fighting areas.

Impacts on the area

The military campaign conducted by Azerbaijan in Nagorno - Karabakh received many different shades of public opinions. Some countries believe that the victory of the Azerbaijani Army over the Armenian separatist forces is of significant, opening up hope for ending the three-decade long Nagorno - Karabakh conflict, thereby completely resolving one of the “flashpoints” in the South Caucasus region. However, some countries expressed deep concern, because this military operation could provoke a crisis in Nagorno - Karabakh. In fact, since December 2022, Azerbaijan has blocked the “Lachin corridor” - an important lifeline for Armenia to ensure essential supplies for roughly 120,000 Armenians living in Nagorno - Karabakh. Azerbaijan's blockade is said to “pave the way” to conduct an “anti-terrorism” campaign, and it causes the lives of the Armenian people in Nagorno - Karabakh to fall into difficulty and deprivation.

After the war, although the Azerbaijani government committed to ensuring security for the people in Nagorno - Karabakh, recently they also ordered the arrest of the leaders and wanted more than 300 officials of the Armenians separatist forces. Due to fears of retaliation and a possible ethnic cleansing, many people of Armenian origin have tried to flee the area. This raises the risk of a new humanitarian crisis and destabilising the region. Meanwhile, Armenian politics is being “shaken” by conflicts over how to resolve the war in Nagorno - Karabakh. The opposition condemned Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's government for being “too slow” in dealing with the military campaign, resulting in the defeat of Armenian separatist forces. They called for Mr. Nikol Pashinyan to resign, and asked the National Assembly to dismiss and convict Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for treason. Many officials in the Armenian Government also issued worrying warnings: after the victory in Nagorno - Karabakh, Azerbaijan can also use military power to exercise sovereignty claims over other areas that they consider being in dispute with Armenia.

From another perspective, many analysts believe that in the just-occurred conflict in Nagorno - Karabakh, beside the forces of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and NKR separatists, there is also the involvement at different levels of related regional countries with their own goals and interests. It is the support and help from outside that has created significant impacts on the balance of forces on the battlefield. That was clearly demonstrated in the 2020 conflict, with the help of a number of countries in weapons and combat vehicles, the Azerbaijani Army took control of the battlefield, reclaiming many lands held by Armenian separatist forces in Nagorno - Karabakh. As for Russia, this country recently played a major role in working towards armistice agreements to be signed by Azerbaijan and Armenia; participating in peacekeeping in the disputed Nagorno - Karabakh area. However, Russia currently has to focus resources on the war in Ukraine, so it can hardly prevent a large-scale military campaign by Azerbaijan in the region. The European Union (EU) is also actively mediating the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia after the war. However, many EU member states have different views on this military campaign. Many support or maintain a “neutral” attitude towards Azerbaijan's military campaign in Nagorno - Karabakh, meanwhile the EU-key France opposes, and many of its officials also declared their support for Armenia, committing to providing weapons and combat vehicles to Yerevan. Therefore, international analysts believe that, in the context of the fierce strategic competition between major countries, the complicated conflict in Ukraine, the heating-up Middle East, the situation in Nagorno - Karabakh in particular, the South Caucasus region in general, will be very difficult to predict.

The Nagorno - Karabakh conflict lasted more than three decades due to many reasons; among which, issues of history, culture, natural geographical condition, population distribution, and the outside involvement of regional countries and organisations are believed the main causes of conflicts. Conflicts here are more complicated and difficult to resolve. In fact, the parties’ use of force through military activities not only fails to resolve disagreements, but also deepens the contradiction and fiercens the conflicts. Research experts say that the “anti-terrorism” campaign that Azerbaijan conducted in Nagorno - Karabakh was militarily victorious, completing its set goals; but in some ways, it could be a “black mark” in the relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia, or in other words, it deepens the hatred between the Armenian and the Azerbaijanis. Therefore, it is still an open question whether the “turning point” created by Azerbaijan's anti-terrorism campaign in the Nagorno - Karabakh conflict will help this area return to peace or transition to a new state of conflict.

MINH DUC - HOAI NAM