Recently, the Ukrainian crisis and the construction of artificial islands in the East Sea have triggered the dispute in geo-political interest among the US, Russia and China. This has a great effect on the international security and draws special attention of the public.
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1. US – Russia relation became extremely bad since the end of the “Cold War”.
US – Russia relation is in its utmost tension since the end of the “Cold War” with Ukrainian being the peak. US and EU threaten to keep imposing their economic, financial and diplomatic sanctions on Russia unless Russia stops its intervention in Ukraine. Particularly, recently, for the first time in 20 years of partnership with Russia, US has considered Russia the “most dangerous nation” which is “damaging world and regional security”. This hostile view may push the two countries into a new “cold war”. However, according to some western strategists, though US and EU’s sanctions have inflicted heavy damage on Russia’s economy, they can’t defeat this country. More importantly, those sanctions have also caused adverse effect to the US and EU. Moreover, in settling international issues, US still needs the cooperation and assistance from Russia, especially in fighting against terrorism, disarming nuclear weapons, etc. Hence, analysts hold that, the current confrontation between the US, Russia benefits neither the two sides nor the world.
2. Tension in the US – China relation
International analysts hold that recent contradictions between the US and China have pushed the relation between the two countries into one of the worst chapters over the past three decades since it was established. Assessing the US – China relation regarding the East Sea issue, analysts hold that East Sea is of strategic importance. The sea lies on a critical sea-lane connecting Pacific and India Oceans, Europe and Asia, Middle East and Asia. 5 in 10 busiest sea-lanes in the world run through the East Sea. It is also anticipated to have the biggest oil reserve in the world. For America, the East Sea is a critical water in their Asia – Pacific pivoting strategy. For China, the sea is the “living space” and the “gateway” to reach the world and realize their “Chinese dream”. Therefore, the rivalry for strategic interest between US and China is said to be complicated and long-lasting. Especially, it may make the water a “hot spot” threatening the world and regional security and stability in the 21st century.
US policy makers hold that US – China relation is the most complicated relation among the major powers. US governments have always exercised two-faced policy with China. On the one side, they try to restrain China in economic, political, military fields. On the other side, they have to strengthen and widen cooperation with China. The biggest difficulty the US faces now in its relation with China is the imbalance with China’s favourability. US is the biggest debtor of China. In its global strategy, US still needs China involvement in solving international issues. US Former Secretary of State H. Clinton once said: “How can the US have assertive behavior toward its creditor?”.
3. Improvements in Russia – China relation.
According to international analysts, Russia – China relation is in its prime due mainly to the hostile view of US towards these two countries. Nevertheless, given the complicated evolutions in the region and the world, and the interwoven interests of each country, both Russia and China wish to keep their bilateral relation at a sufficient scale to serve the interest of each country as being a counterweight with the US not to let it go too far and be a rival with the US. Russian President V. Putin stated that its relation with China does not aim at founding an alliance and that it is ready to cooperate with the US and EU. Russia is also joining the war against the Self-Proclaimed Islamic State (IS) – an action that is consider goodwill of Russia in the effort to rebalance the US – Russia – China relation.
It is said that US, Russia and China are all permanent members of the UN Security Council with high status and important role in the world. Therefore, the relation among these countries has a decisive effect on other relations as well as political – security evolutions in the world. In the present globalization trend, instead of strategic competition, they should strengthen cooperation in accordance with international laws, the UN Charter; promote their high status and important role in solving international issues and contribute to building a world of peace, stability and development.
Kieu Loan