Over the past year, being impacted by Ukraine crisis, the EU-Russia-Ukraine relations have always been very intense. Thus, developments and future of these relations in 2015 are the focal point of political analysts and international opinion.
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Ukrainian troops’ destroyed armoured vehicle (source: internet) |
Unlike the first “Orange Revolution” (2004), the second one in 2014 has caused the most comprehensive and profound crisis in Ukraine since its separation from Soviet Union. This crisis not only brought this Eastern Europe country to severe and prolonged division and conflicts, but also pushed the EU-Russia-Ukraine relations into the state of “rice is never well cooked by an unhappy couple, nor the soup well seasoned”. Therefore, the settlement for those ties depends on the way Ukraine crises is solved, and their future relations also depend on the prospect of settling the crisis.
Prospect for Ukraine crisis settlement
Over the past year, every effort made by parties and international community to peacefully resolve Ukraine crisis has come to deadlock. The reason is that it changed the entire architecture of relations between the U.S., EU, and Russia; in which, none of the relevant parties has achieved its objectives. For the U.S., its aim to weaken Russia by taking advantage of Ukraine crisis has not been fulfilled. Though Washington in cooperation with its allies has carried out a “combining war”, using a combination of economic and financial sanctions, psychological and ideological warfare, and military deterrence to attack Russia domestically and internationally, it failed to subdue Moscow.
Consequently, in 2015, in addition to used measures, the U.S. will take more radical ones to push Ukraine crisis to a new higher level.
As for EU, in this war, since it does not have their own independent foreign policy (on their relations with Russia and Ukraine), it has no other choice but to follow the U.S. to impose sanctions on Russia, which is seen as an act of “putting rocks on your own feet”. Thus a number of people and enterprises in many EU countries reject sanctions against Russia. They also realized that imposing sanctions against Russia is to harm themselves. And that if they back a pro-Western government of Ukraine (against Russia), it will lead to enduring deadlock and instability in the whole European continent.
As for Ukraine, it lost Crimea and fell into an economic, political, and security crisis concurrently, even facing the risk in which it would no longer maintain the status of an unified nation. Ukraine’s political circles are being deeply split up as they wonder which major power, namely the U.S., EU, and Russia, their country should develop relations with. Notably, it was the first time since the end of World War II, Ukraine’s fascist and radical nationalist forces strongly emerged, went into politics and won seats in the Parliament (after the 2004 election). International observers pointed out similarities between the situation of Ukraine today with that of Germany in the early 1930s when the Nazi Party took power and led the country to the World War II to destroy Soviet Union. Thus, it can be said that in 2015 the Ukraine crisis will be eased but remain risky, unpredictable, and complicated.
As for Russia, after Crimea’s annexation, Moscow could not realize its guideline on the building of a unified, federated, and neutral Ukraine, meanwhile waves of sanctions against Russia have been imposed by the U.S. and Western countries. Therefore, President V.Putin’s decision to fulfil the aspirations of Crimea people for their return to Russian Motherland and to support the Eastern Ukraine for greater autonomy caused different reactions in Ukraine and international community. That complicated and interwoven situation will slow down the settlement process of the comprehensive crisis of Ukraine.
Prospect of the EU- Russia-Ukraine relations in 2015
In the upcoming time, in spite of adjustments, the Russia-EU relations basically depends on the developments of Ukraine crisis. However, even when the crisis is resolved in the most positive way, the Russia-EU relationship can not be the same as it was before. In fact, both Russia and EU hope to recover and maintain dialogue channels for important aspects of cooperation so as to avoid an intense conflict between the two sides and the emergence of a new Cold War. That is the reason why right in the very beginning of 2015, the relationship between Russia and EU seemed warmer. On January 5th, 2015, in an interview conducted by the France Inter radio, French President F.Hollande made a call for the West to lift sanctions imposed on Russia and stated that Russian President V.Putin only wished to maintain Russia’s influence in Ukraine and prevent the country from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), aiming at preventing foreign armies’ presence (excluding neighbours’) near Russian borders. According to Itar-Tass Russia News Agency, there have been 7 EU states that back the lifting of sanctions against Russia. High Representative of EU for foreign affairs Mogherini said that Europe should consider a partial recovery of choices and tools of cooperation on jurisdiction and justice with Russia. German Minister of Economic Affairs and Energy Sigmar Gabriel even expressed his concern over the sanctions imposed on Russia and said that there might be a number of forces in the U.S. and Europe that want to “subdue” Moscow, which only pushes Europe to the risk. More forcefully, President of France F.Hollande recommended an international meeting based on the Normandy formula (including France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine) to seek solutions to Ukraine crisis. Accordingly, EU will not impose any new sanctions on Russia, it even will collaborate with Moscow to carry out peacekeeping operations in Eastern Ukraine with the UN permission. If it happens, it will possibly lead to an end of conflicts in Ukraine, commencing the process of building a new security architecture in Europe. Moreover, in the current situation, both EU and Russia need to work together to deal with challenges from terrorism and radicalism which increasingly spread in the world and the continent. Without this collaboration, Europe will have to face the risk of an outbreak of new conflicts, and people’s faith in the alliance will be unceasingly decreased.
It is anticipated that the Russia-Ukraine relationship in 2015 will be hard to improve as the new Ukrainian government continues to receive US support for the use of violence against separatist forces in the eastern region of the country. Thus, Kiev Government took advantage of the ceasefire signed on September 5th 2014 in Minsk to recover themself from the previous forces and weapons losses in the so-called “anti-terrorism campaign”. Accordingly, they established a number of new armed units and rearmed their Army with weapons provided by the U.S. and NATO. In his recent visit to Zhytomyr, President of Ukraine stated that in September 2014 there was only 20% of weapons and equipment left in Ukraine Army, but in early 2015 they recovered 100%, being strong enough to fight. He also declared that 2015 would be the victorious year of Ukraine due to its Army’s comprehensive recovery in fighting capabilities. Chairman of National Security Council of Ukraine Lysenko revealed that since early September 2014, anti-terrorism forces of Ukraine have been redeployed, occupying new defensive lines and shifting to positively and proactively defensive posture. In addition to the enhancement of military capabilities, in late December 2014, the Ukrainian Parliament repealed the law on non-military alliance, which might pave the way for its participation in NATO. In response to the situation, Moscow warned that it would terminate the relationship with NATO if Ukraine is admitted into NATO. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov also stated that the Ukrainian Parliament’s decision to repeal the law on non-alignment would only make Russia-Ukraine relationship more intense.
EU-Ukraine relationship was improved when the two sides signed the Association Agreement on economics and politics in 2014. However, their relations in 2015 could get unstable. For instance, the implementation of EU-Ukraine Association Agreement on economics have been postponed until early 2016; in the present condition, if the regulation for free trade between the two sides was conducted, thousands of enterprises in Ukraine would go bankrupt, millions of people get unemployed, bringing Ukraine’s economy to the verge of bankruptcy. According to analysts, in 2015, in spite of continued economic difficulties, EU still has to spend money to save Ukraine from the risk of being bankrupt. In this regard, on January 7th 2015, Ministry of Economic Affairs of Germany announced to provide Ukraine with a 500 million euro credit. At the same time, Berlin pledged to stick by Ukraine and support for the country’s political and economic development towards the West, vigorously removing Russian influence. On January 8th 2015, President of the European Commission Juncker pledged that EU would give Ukraine a 1.8 billion euro loan to stabilize its economy which is on the brink of bankruptcy. In response to this move, there are contradictory opinions in Europe and the world; many people believe that EU continues to back Ukraine so that Kiev could pursue the war with separatist forces in its Eastern region, showing no willingness towards Russia. Yet, Moscow believed that EU’s financial aid for Ukraine, to some extent, is positive. Germany’s 500 million euro credit for Ukraine is not disbursed in detail but aims to reconstruct the severely ruined Eastern region. Alongside its aid for Ukraine, Germany also delivered many messages urging Kiev to effectively conduct the ceasefire. It can be said that Berlin seemed to agree with Moscow on the maintenance of status quo in Ukraine; at the same time, wanted Ukraine to return to 4-party negotiation round soon. Apparently, what the EU wants is not to force Russian-speaking community to leave Ukraine but to quickly resolve the crisis, helping Kiev reconstruct its politics and economy, and guaranteeing all necessary conditions for Ukraine’s joining EU. According to analysts, when there is no end for Ukraine crisis resulting in a severely destroyed economy, and no consensus within EU, there is a mountain of challenges ahead for Ukraine’s joining “Common European home”.
Nguyen Ngoc Anh
Center for international studies and cooperation, Friendship Association of Vietnam with Other Countries