The world, in past June, saw one more war in Iraq which started with massive offensive operations by the jihad organisation called “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIL) that rocked the Iraqi government. This is the third war taking place in Iraq within more than two decades, all of them caused considerable geopolitical impacts.
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Kurdish troops in Iraq (Photo: AP) |
Located in Southwest Asia of the Middle-East region, Iraq has an ancient and rich civilization. It shares borderlines with a lot of countries, and possesses the world’s top oil reserve; therefore Iraq has a geopolitical status of utmost importance. Thus, during and after the Cold War, Iraq had always been the focus of rivalry among countries in and outside the region. Also, this country has fallen into the vortex of 3 wars within only more than 2 decades, causing geopolitical impacts on regional and global scale.
Geopolitical impacts by the Persian Gulf War (1991)
When the Cold War ended in 1991, a number of Mid-East countries thought that the “threat” from the former Soviet Union was dismissed and attempted to get rid of the “American security umbrella”. Finding a “match” and launching a war to assemble allied forces and demonstrate its hegemonic role, in that situation, for America were a necessity. Also, at that time, Iraq in President Saddam Hussein’s reign was the Mid-East’s emerging military power whose army of 1 million troops was equipped with 6,000 tanks and armored fighting vehicles, around 700 modern warplanes… etc. Iraq deserved to be America’s match regarding military might compared to other Mid-East countries. Moreover, Iraq ruled by Saddam Hussein was nurturing its ambition of being a “regional power” based on its military strength and launching an invasion of its neighbor country - Kuwait which was considered “an Iraqi province needed recovering”. Additionally, Iraq intended to export its petroleum to the international market without USD payment. As a result, a war against Iraq was waged by America to thwart Iraq’s ambition of being a regional power and assemble allied forces in response to the trend of being rid of America security sponsorship after the Cold War. In the Persian Gulf War against Iraq, America assembled allied forces consisting of more than 30 countries, which was seen the most significant geopolitical impact made by this war.
In other aspects, the war gave America and western countries the opportunity to show their military might by high precision guided weapons also known as “smart weapons”, which helped destroy most of Iraqi military strength. After the war ended, the United States Central Command announced that they gave birth to an era of high-tech war. Wherever and whenever the US world leadership and interests are challenged and threatened, its armed forces will be ready to engage. To conclude, after the Cold War, the overwhelming dominance of the world’s unique superpower was confirmed in the Persian Gulf War by mainly using high-tech weapons. Moreover, it marked the commencement of the new period of the military revolution when every country changed its strategy focusing on developing high-precision guided weapons and equipment.
Geopolitical impacts by the Iraq war (2003)
According to international analysts, after the 11 September 2001 incident, under the pretext of the “global war on terror”, President G.W Bush launched a war against Afghanistan with the campaign coded “Operation Enduring Freedom” which was considered the beginning of the American strategy called “Great Middle East Project” using the military to “pacify” a large geopolitical area extending from Africa to the Middle East and the Central Asia. Meanwhile, the US was planning to launch the second war against Iraq to embark on the “Great Middle East Project” in the Persian Gulf region. It is worth noting that if the reason of the Persian Gulf War was Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait,the reason for the US to launch the Iraq War in 2003 was “Iraq’s possession of weapons of mass destruction”. However, after the invasion, no evidence of Iraq’s possession of weapons of mass destruction” was found. Therefore, observers might be right to suppose that the US embarking on the “Great Middle East Project” is the most significant geopolitical impact caused by the war.
However, President Saddam Hussein’s overthrow created a power vacuum for the terrorism to grow at breakneck speed in the country. This was completely contrary to America’s expectations and objective of “a democratized Iraq” as planned in the Great Middle East Project. According to the US official announcement, the war ended on 5th July, 2004, but in the battleground, it did not end until 30th December, 2011. Consequently, Iraq, a country free of terrorism before 2003, has been now transformed into the “haven” for jihad organizations which always consider terror as an instrument to exercise their influence over the world. Terrorist threats have developed rampantly all over the world, even inside the United States of America as acknowledged by the 2010 National Security Strategy. In response to the situation, the United States Congress passed the National Defense Authorization Act under which the US President is authorized to detain individuals indefinitely involved in terrorism without trial, even ordering an execution without investigation.
Geopolitical impacts by the Iraq war (2014)
Compared to the two former wars, the Iraq war 2014 has made two bigger and clearer geopolitical impacts.
First, political changes in Iraq have no longer met the US interests in the Middle East. According to Raymond Odierno former political advisor to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Iraq Parliamentary election 2010 marked a historical shift in post-Saddam era. After the election, the disagreement between Iraq and the US arose; specifically, the Iraqi Parliament was decentralized as largest party alliances were not under Washington’s absolute control.
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki himself formed a coalition government in support of the radical Shi’a cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, head of the paramilitary force named “Mahdi Army” which used to fight against US forces in Iraq in 2004, thus is not supported by America. Moreover, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, after taking office, unceasingly consolidated his power by kicking Sunni clerics and Kurdish leaders out, then improved relations with Iran which used to be the US enemy. Meanwhile, the US supported Iraqi Kurdish people to form a Kurdistan independent state without Iraqi government’s permission. Nouri al-Maliki’s government strongly opposed U.S. policy and supposed that the US planned to divide Iraq into 3 independent nation states, one of which was for the Kurdish. American companies have now signed contracts with Kurdistan- a self-proclaimed nation state without Iraqi government’s consultation. When observing Syrian political crisis in which the US claimed its support for opposition forces to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad’s reign under Russia’s sponsorship, Prime Minister Maliki started his reaction and expressed his opposition to the US policy. The strategic shift was manifested in Iraq’s allowing Iran’s military cargo aircraft to fly over its airspace to aid Syria. Additionally, in a northern Iraqi area, there now exists an Iranian command which is under the Iranian armed forces but operating under the name of Iraq in response to the Kurdish. As a reaction to the situation, in October, 2012, Prime Minister Maliki paid a historical visit to Russia and signed a lot of important contracts and agreements with Russian Government, especially the millions US dollar worth arms contracts. According to analysts, since Maliki’s Russia visit 2012 on, Iraq has become Russia’s new ally in the Middle East.
The Iraq war 2003 launched by the US did not result in setting up a regime meeting its expectations, adversely against Washington’s interests. It is now the right time for the US to kick Prime Minister Maliki out of his office. Coincidentally, the US shares its intention with “Islamic State” forces which has carried out attacks to colonize a lot of Iraqi territories, generating pressure for Iraqi political regime removing, stepping up the establishment of an Islamic State here. Iraq’s case is similar to Syria’s: almost over the past three years, IS has been fighting in the opposition forces to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad’s reign, which is the objective that the US and western countries have been all trying to reach. Therefore, when IS began its massive attacks on Iraq in early June, 2014, the US ignored Prime Minister Maliki’s appeal. Regardless of Iraq’s state of emergency, the US, without reactions, even asked for Prime Minister Maliki’s resignation to form a new Iraqi government. It was not until American interests were threatened by IS attacks on the Kurdish’s lands, President Barack Obama made a decision to launch air raids against IS forces. However, the air raids by the US against IS advances not only mark its return by engagement in Iraq after many years in failure to reconstruct the country, but also force itself to be confronted by the notoriously brutal “Islamic State” forces. Thousands of IS radical militants from America, Europe and a number of other countries who were assaulted by America now are fighting against America. This causes unpredictable impacts on global and regional security in both short and long term. Under America’s pressure, the outgoing Prime Minister Maliki stated that he withdraws from the coming term candidacy and supports the nominated person, Vice Chairman of the Iraqi Parliament Haider al-Abadi.
Second, creating a new geopolitical picture in the Middle East. The possible scenario for Iraq is that the country will be divided into 3 nation states as Vice President of America Joe Biden’s idea. He figures that in Iraq there always exist non-negotiable confrontations between Shi’a and Sunni Muslims. Therefore, the only solution to the issue is to create favourable conditions for them to establish two separate nation states. In the North where a lot of Iraq’s oil mines are located, a pro-America nation state by the Kurdish will be established. At the present, a nation state has been formed by the name of the Republic of Kurdistan. In the West will be a nation state by the Shi’a Muslims in connection with the opposition forces in Syria. In the East will be a nation state by the Sunni Muslims in good relations with Iran. The possible scenario was also manifested in the “Great Middle East Project”. According to international commentators, it is too early to tell the future of Iraq. The importance is let Iraq’s internal affairs be decided by its people without interference of outsiders. More specifically, national unity and concord for the sake of national interests is the key to enduring peace and stability for the Iraqi people and the whole region.
Colonel Le The Mau