Strategic study, prediction, and advice on military and defence domains are of vital importance to the cause of defending the Fatherland. However, this is a difficult, complex task, which requires theoretical thinking and actual study of the fact at a high level and broad scope both nationally, regionally, and internationally. Therefore, the entire military in general, strategic-level bodies and units in particular must continue to adopt comprehensive, synchronous solutions aimed at enhancing quality and effectiveness of this crucial work, meeting requirements of protecting the Fatherland in the new situation.

On deeply perceiving the role and significance of strategic study, prediction, and advice on military and national defence, over the past few years, the Central Military Commission (CMC) and Ministry of National Defence (MND) have focused on leading and directing comprehensive, synchronous implementation of policies and solutions to improve the quality of this work, contributing to advising the Party and State on guidelines, policies, and strategies to safeguard the Fatherland; effectively and timely respond to situations without being passive or surprised; prevent, push back, and mitigate risks both at home and abroad; firmly protect territorial sovereignty, national borders, waters, and islands; create a stable, peaceful environment conducive to national building and development. The MND’s strategic-level advisory bodies have worked closely with central commissions, ministries, and branches and localities to ceaselessly enhance ability to conduct strategic study, prediction, and advice and instruct effective, unitary, synchronous implementation of many important strategies, resolutions, conclusions, projects, and legal documents regarding military and defence domains, which contributes to improvement and development of theoretical thinking, military guidelines and arts of Viet Nam, state management of national defence, better meeting requirements of building and safeguarding the Fatherland both in the short and long term.

Now and in the time to come, although peace, cooperation, and development remain the mainstream of the age, the region and the world continue to witness unforeseeable, complex, rapid developments. Major powers take initiative in adjusting their strategies to both interact, cooperate, compromise and struggle, compete, contain each other and interfere into internal affairs of sovereign, independent states. Violation of sovereignty, dispute over territories and natural resources, armed conflict, local wars, interference, subversion, terrorism, separation, etc., take place fiercely in many regions. The East Sea issue, the Southwestern strategic waters, etc., face the risk of instability. Nontraditional security issues, partners of cooperation and objects of struggle transform swiftly in a complex manner. Hostile forces step up the strategy of “peaceful evolution,” incite “self-evolution” and “self-transformation,” and pursue the plot of depoliticising the Viet Nam People’s Army (VPA). This reality requires the entire military to further heighten its vigilance, solidarity, and unity and improve the effectiveness of strategic study, prediction, and advice by means of many drastic, synchronous solutions as follows:

1. Strengthening leadership and direction of the CMC, party committees, and commanders at all levels, especially those of the strategic level, on strategic research, prediction, and advice. This is the most important solution, which aims to ensure that strategic study, prediction, and advice on military and national defence are always carried out in accordance with the Party’s standpoints and guidelines, the State’s policies and law, and designated strategic goals. Consequently, party committees and commanders of the MND’s strategic advisory bodies, especially the Institute for Defence Strategy, Department of Military Operations, Foreign Relations Department, General Department of Intelligence, etc., need to be deeply aware of the position, significance, and importance of this work and promote leadership and instruction in the direction of “proactively studying and predicting situations correctly to avoid falling into passivity and surprise; resolutely and persistently protecting independence, sovereignty, unification and territorial integrity of the Fatherland”. Strategic study, prediction, and advice must become crucial contents of resolutions, strategies, conclusions, and monthly, quarterly, annually reports on military and defence work; be materialised into plans, programmes, etc., ensuring suitability for functions and missions of each department, unit, and force as well as in accordance with the Party’s new standpoints and thinking, domestic law, international law.

Sr. Lt. Gen. Nguyen Tan Cuong speaks at the military-wide conference on staff work of the first hafl of 2022

To lead, direct, and manage this work effectively require departments and units at the strategic level to further grasp, materialise, and successfully realise resolutions conclusions, directives, and legal documents regarding strategic study, prediction, and advice such as the 13^th National Party Congress, the Strategy to Safeguard the Fatherland in the New Situation, the Resolution of the VPA’s 11^th Party Congress, the CMC’s Resolution No. 347-NQ/TW, dated 23 May 2015 on “Enhancing quality of strategic study, prediction, and advice in the defence domain through 2020 and beyond. This will lay the foundation for strictly implementing phases of leadership, direction, and management. Special importance is attached to inspection, supervision, preliminary summary, and summary to gain experience, which serves to supplement and develop theory of strategic study, prediction, and advice in the military and defence domains. The quality of studying and predicting situations, the feasibility of advising and crafting guidelines and policies in the military and defence domains, and the effectiveness of defence struggle are regarded as criteria for assessing the quality of strategic study, prediction, and advice in departments and units. Additionally, it is necessary to actively research, formulate, supplement, and improve regulations and legal documents to enhance efficiency and effectiveness of leadership, direction, and management of the CMC, MND, party committees and commanders of departments and units at the strategic level concerning strategic study, prediction, and advice. More effort should be put into increasing ability to analyse, judge, and assess situations, which provides a basis for advising and crafting guidelines and solutions to defence struggle and national defence.

2. Promoting reform to enhance the effectiveness of study, prediction, and advice to be absolutely no passive and surprised at the strategic level. Research departments and units at the strategic level in the entire military need to vigorously reform contents, forms, and methods to conduct study and prediction; closely work with relevant forces to grasp, analyse, assess, and predict situations in the world, region, and country correctly. The contents of research and prediction must be comprehensive but focused on specific areas. Accordingly, study and prediction must be able to appraise “unusual” signs and moves of countries concerned, especially their adjustment of diplomacy, defence, security strategies, and major powers’ shift of military posture; declarations and commitments of parties to regional and international security, defence forums; ways of collusion among reactionary forces at home and abroad; partners of cooperation and objects of struggle as well as the transformation between from partners of cooperation into objects of struggle and vice versa; adversaries’ new types of warfare. Attention should be paid to identification of new issues, prediction of countries’ courses of action, and anticipation of defence, security strategic situations. This will provide a firm basis for assessing advantages, disadvantages, opportunities, and challenges as well as their two-way influence on regional peace and stability and national security, sovereignty, and territories in order to work out prevention and response.

Apart from study and prediction, there needs to improve quality and effectiveness of strategic advice. In the context of unforeseeable, complex, rapid developments in the world and region, in addition to advice on building of the all-people national defence, people’s armed forces, etc., strategic-level bodies need to step up advising about measures to deal with defence situations, defence struggle, partners of cooperation, and objects of struggle; policies and solutions to international relations and defence diplomacy aimed to increase position and prestige of the country and VPA. Special importance is also attached to advising about measures to defeat hostile forces’ strategy of “peaceful evolution” and subversive schemes, resolutely preserving stability of the country.

3. Collaborating closely with relevant forces to create overall strength to successfully accomplish strategic study, prediction, and advice in military and defence domains. The VPA in general and strategic-level specialised departments and units in the entire VPA in particular should work closely with relevant bodies of the Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and forces at home and abroad to collect and exchange of confidential, reliable, correct information; reach consensus on situations in the world, region, and country; reach agreement on hostile forces’ potential courses of action, which lays the foundation for the CMC to determine modes of defence struggle, resolution, and approaches in dealing with strategic scenarios to defend the Fatherland. Additionally, they are requested to collaborate with relevant forces to reach consensus on contents, modes, and measures to advise the Party and State, which serves to provide the Party and State with authentic, scientific basis to formulate guidelines and policies and direct the entire political system to implement defence, security, diplomacy policies, ensuring suitability to reality of the country and developments in security and politics in the world and region in current revolutionary period.

4. Strategic-level advisory bodies in the entire VPA are to be built in a “streamlined, compact, strong” direction, capable of meeting requirements and missions in the new situation. Strategic-level advisory bodies in the entire VPA need to be made strong in terms of politics, ideology, morality, organisation, and cadre; ceaselessly broaden their professional knowledge and skills; successfully complete their assigned tasks to increasingly bring strategic study, prediction, and advice into depth, high quality, and effectiveness, satisfying demands and missions of safeguarding the Fatherland. The strengthening of organisations and staffing in the “streamlined, compact, strong” direction is closely combined with developing high-quality human resources, making party organisations and command organisations strong, and building “representative, exemplary,” comprehensively strong units. It is necessary to improve and effectively apply mechanisms for attracting talented people. The planning, training, use, rotation, and development of cadres must be associated with realising preferential policies well. Priorities are given to cultivation of a corps of strategic staff cadres with comprehensive capacity, ensuring that they are sharp thinkers, sensible about situations, well qualified for making broad generalisations, and capable of meeting mission requirements. The work of strategic study, prediction, and advice closely relates to international activities, thus requiring the corps of cadres to be well schooled in military, defence, and diplomacy domains both at home and abroad; have lots of experience, responsibility, and a great passion for their jobs; be faithful, versed in adoption of stratagems and strategies, and creative; possess political steadfastness and strategic thinking about military, defence and foreign relations; be dedicated and visionary; have both talents and good virtues; be not only capable of completing strategic study, prediction, and advice but also competent at leadership, direction, management of their specialised tasks.

Together with developing organisations and people, specialised advisory bodies need to combine upgrades with investing in facilities and equipment in support of strategic study, prediction, and advice. They are also requested to boost international cooperation; make the most of technological, scientific advancements during strategic study, prediction, and advice; use shortcuts to shorten the length of time but still achieve the designated goals, which contributes to successfully completing the task of strategic study, prediction, and advice in military and defence domains; timely, effectively responding to strategic scenarios without falling into passivity and surprise; firmly protecting the Fatherland.

Lieutenant General HUYNH CHIEN THANG, Member of the Party Central Committee, Member of the Central Military Commission, Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Viet Nam People’s Army