Entering the year 2014, although global politics remained stable, competition among countries will take place severely, especially among big powers. In addition to “co-existence” with intentions, dissent, big countries do not forget to “nurture” their ambitions, waiting and taking advantage of opportunities to act in their most beneficial manner. Is this the trend of “a new type of relationship among major powers?”

Concept of a new model of great power relations

In 2013, the world witnessed a particularly important event as regards relations between major powers. That was an unofficial visit to the United States paid by Chinese President Xi Jinping (in June 2013). Although no joint declaration was made, no important agreement was signed, dialogues (in a narrow scale) towards building the Sino-U.S. relationship in the context that cooperation interwoven with ever-increasing geopolitical competition between the two countries have attracted special attentions of the international community. During the meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the idea of building a new type of great power relationship between the two countries. Accordingly, the major powers would not have conflicts, not confrontations, respect each other and undertake a win-win cooperation. This idea has received the response of the host country counterpart that U.S. wanted to build “a new model of cooperation” with China. This can be seen as a new feature in international relations, especially relations among big countries in the near future.

Before that, within the framework of the project “Multipolar World Order: Competition and Cooperation between Russia, China and the United States in East Asia” (in 2010), Russian strategic researchers had also referred to the concept of “a new type of relationship among major powers” and affirmed that nations: Russia, China and the United States would have a great, decisive influence on the global situation in all three aspects: security, economy and energy. In particular, Russia - a superpower of energy resources - is gradually restoring its growing political influence in the international arena. China becomes an economic superpower and ranks as the world’s second largest economy (after the U.S.). This country is gaining its ever-growing political position on the global scale and is shifting from the era of “hide your strength, bide your time” to active and proactive participation in the global agenda. As for the U.S., in spite of being the most powerful nation in the world, it is seeking to reassert its global role due to the comprehensive deterioration of its strength in terms of politics, economy and military after two decades of unilateral action in the unipolar world order established after the Cold War.

Thus, a new model of great power relations is a new phenomenon in international relations in which the two processes - cooperation and fierce competition - occur simultaneously. In other words, the bipolar relationship among the major powers is taking shape: one pole is cooperation and economic interdependence, and the other is competition and conflict. In particular, the competition between these countries makes a tremendous impact on the face of the world politics and potentially undermines the interest of each nation. Thus, the major powers always have to keep a balance between the two poles of relations, maintaining strategic stability in the face of international politics, preventing occurrence of wars .

A review on the new model of great power relations in the past few years

In recent years, especially in 2013, although President Barack Obama sought a “reset,” U.S.-Russian relations still show complex evolutions. In fact, this policy has not brought about significant change in the direction of improving relations between the two countries since 2009. Under the disguise of “resetting” relations with Russia, the United States, on the one hand, tries to take advantage of Moscow’s support in the issues of Afghanistan and Libya, etc. On the other hand, it carries out the “peaceful evolution” strategy aimed at undermining the stable political system in Russia. The U.S.-Russia relationship, in 2013, is awash with contradictions and disagreements on many “fronts,” such as: geopolitics in Europe; in the Post-Soviet Space; in the Middle East, North Africa and in many other places in the world. In particular, the United States and Russia have disagreed in principle on settling the political crisis in Syria, pushing this nation to the brink of war. Fortunately, thanks to Russia’s tough stance and initiatives, the disagreement was resolved, contributing to defuse the war, thus creating a turning point in resolving the crisis in this North African country.

As for the Post-Soviet Space, the United States tries to drive countries in the region into the sphere of influence of the West in order to isolate Russia. This was clearly shown when Washington openly supported Ukrainian opposition forces to overthrow President Yanukovych (supposedly pro-Russia) after this country had temporarily postponed signing an EU-Ukraine trade and partnership agreement in November 2013. In the field of missile defense, despite Russian’s stiff opposition, the United States still does not make any concessions. It acted more drastically, even when an agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue had been reached and the nuclear threat from this country had been repulsed. Moreover, U.S.-Russian relations were once again in the deep freeze in 2013 when Russia granted Edwards Snowden - a U.S. sinner - temporary political asylum. This was the main reason why U.S. President Barack Obama canceled the summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the eve of the Saint Petersburg G20 Forum (in September 2013) to “contemplate” the two countries’ bilateral relations.

Despite many disagreements, in regard to important issues relating to global security, the two sides have cooperated closely with each other. This was also reflected in the U.S.–Russia Foreign and Defense Ministers Meeting (“2+2”) in August 2013. In particular, American approval of the Russia-initiated “chemical weapons for peace” plan in Syria, as well as the two countries’ important role in the success of the historic agreement on Iran’s nuclear issues (on November 24, 2013), demonstrated the indispensable cooperation between the two superpowers in the global agenda.

U.S.-China relations in 2013 continued to develop in the direction of cooperation interwoven with competition, but the competition was becoming more visible, fierce and direct. At the U.S.-China summit that was held during the visit to the United States by  Chinese President Xi Jinping, the two sides focused their discussions on clarifying each country’s perceptions of the other country’s role in dealing with the current global challenges. The two leaders frankly discussed contradictory issues ranging from cyber security; trade deficit; the Renminbi exchange rate; safety and security of navigation in the South China Sea and East China Sea; North Korea’s nuclear issue and the lack of strategic confidence in their bilateral relations. However, within the framework of a conference, contradictions and disagreements between the two sides could not be reconciled as the issues relating to each country were not the same. While President of the host country was concerned about cyber security-related issues and China’s acts of espionage to steal America’s military secrets, Chinese President Xi Jinping wanted to critically comment on the US “Asia-Pacific Pivot” which Beijing believed it is to curb the influence of China.

US-China talk in June 2013 (Photo: VOV/ Xinhuanet)

According to observers, in 2013, China made three special moves which were considered as a challenge to the United States. Firstly, on November 20,  2013, the Central Bank of China announced that it would shift the volume of its foreign exchange reserves (the largest in the world) with its nearly four trillion US dollars to other more stable “basket of foreign currencies”. This is a drastic challenge to the global status of the U.S. dollar. On Monday, November 23, 2013, China announced the establishment of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea, covering airspace over the group of disputed islands with Japan and South Korea – the two U.S. strategic allies. On Tuesday, December 05, 2013, American and Chinese Navy Ships “nearly” collide in the South China Sea. The Pentagon considered this incident as a “provocative action, much likely to activate a detonator or create misunderstandings.” However, it is the position of major powers, economic interdependence and responsibilities to the international community that can hardly drive the two sides to confront each other. Their competition will nevertheless become  more and more fierce .

China - Russia relations have recently prospered, become more effective in many fields. That explains why soon after taking office, Chinese President Xi Jinping had selected Russia as his first destination. Analysts believed that China strengthened its ties to Russia at this point of time with a view to consolidating and promoting the strategic partnership with Russia to prevent and restrain U.S.-Japan axis in Asia-Pacific; boosting oil and gas cooperation and promoting trade and economic cooperation between the two countries. Currently, the two countries continue to promote comprehensive cooperation in economy, politics and security, especially in the context that China is transforming its growth model and maintaining high growth rates, while Russia joined the World Trade Organization.

Trends of new models of great power relations in 2014

In 2014, the world continues to witness flashpoints that potentially lead to conflict between major powers (the United States, China and Russia), such as Syrian conflict, Iran’s “nuclear dossier”, maritime territorial disputes in East Asia, etc., forcing major powers to exert new measures and efforts to create the strategic stability. At the Forum on Foreign Policy on December 23, 2013, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, in 2014, China’s priority would be to continue to build a new type of major power relationship with the United States in the direction of positive and healthy development, strengthening cooperation, and at the same time, expanding cooperation with Russia in various fields. According to China’s strategic community, Beijing will strive to build a new type of relationship with major powers on the basis of considering a harmony of core interests and enhancing strategic trust between the parties, in which Russia-China relations is a clear evidence of success of a new type of major power relations.

By Le The Mau