Climate change is causing ice to melt rapidly, opening up new shipping routes and opportunities to exploit abundant resources, making the Arctic a special concern for countries seeking to increase their influence and assert their sovereignty and security. This creates the possibility of turning this place into a geostrategic space, the focus of geopolitical and economic competition for several countries both within and outside the region, especially among superpowers.

America's century-old interest in Greenland

Right after starting his second term, one of the most concerned issues related to US President Donald Trump was the proposal to purchase the Greenland archipelago from Denmark for the purpose of ensuring national security. Although this proposal sounds "absurd", according to historical documents, this is not the first time the US government has made this move. Since the 1860s, the United States has been interested in Greenland, and then-US Secretary of State William H. Seward considered purchasing the archipelago, even proposing to purchase Iceland after successfully purchasing Alaska, in order to create an important step towards establishing global trade dominance. Although the ambitious plan was elaborated in detail, the US Congress at that time did not support it because it had to focus on investing the budget to purchase Alaska.

However, the beginning of the Cold War added new impetus to this long-standing interest. In December 1946, US Secretary of State James Byrnes sent a formal proposal to his Danish counterpart Gustav Rasmussen to purchase Greenland, but the Danish government flatly refused. The breakthrough came later, in 1951, Copenhagen and Washington signed a defence agreement, officially placing Greenland within the framework of cooperation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). The signing of the defence agreement legalised the presence of the US military in Greenland, including Thule Air Base (now Pituffik Air Base). Due to its strategic location, this base has become a pivotal element in the missile warning system and the US nuclear weapons development strategy during the Cold War as well as the current North American Defence System (NORAD).

Therefore, President Donald Trump's desire to purchase the Greenland archipelago is not a "spontaneous" action but can be considered a "new chapter" in the Arctic strategy that the US has pursued for more than a century. In other words, the intention to acquire Greenland has long been part of the US's global strategic vision. Today, under the impact of climate change, melting ice and the militarisation of the Arctic region, that ambition continues to be focused on by the White House. According to military researchers, Greenland is located in a key position among North America, Europe and the Arctic, which the Pentagon considers to be the “world’s largest static aircraft carrier”, an ideal outpost for military operations. By controlling Greenland, the US can blockade the Greenland-Iceland-the United Kingdom (GIUK) Strait and control the activities of the Russian Navy from the Barents Sea to the Atlantic Ocean; at the same time, it will be an important base for the US to compete for influence with other powers in the Arctic. In addition to its military value, scientific studies also show that under Greenland’s thick ice layer are resources worth trillions of dollars, including: rare earths (estimated to account for 25% of global reserves); oil (about 17 billion barrels); fresh water (accounting for about 10% of the world’s frozen reserves here and could become “white gold” in the future); rare cryolite mineral deposits, etc.

Melting ice in Greenland (Photo: VNA)

America's new strategy in the Arctic

The United States and several countries have long realised that any country that gains control of the Arctic can have global influence, so this region has gradually become one of the strategic economic, military, and commercial areas that the superpowers want to compete for influence in the 21st century.

Although there is no exact data on resources in the Arctic, scientists estimate that this region accounts for about 13% of the world's oil reserves and about 30% of the world's gas reserves. This place also has many valuable resources, such as nickel, gold, rare earth, and wolfram. Experts predict that at the current rate of ice melting, by the end of the 21st century, the Arctic will have almost no ice. This means that access to the region will become easier and the region will form shipping routes: (1) the Northern Sea Route (NSR) running along the Russian coast, reducing the distance from East Asia to Europe from more than 21,000 km to more than 11,000 km, saving about 10 - 15 days of transportation; (2) the Northwest Passage (NWP) connecting the Atlantic Ocean with the Pacific Ocean via the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, shortening the distance from the Middle East to Western Europe to 13,600 km, compared to 24,000 km via the Panama Canal; (3) the Trans-Arctic Sea Route (TSR) connecting the Bering Strait (separating Asia and North America, located between Cape Dezhnev - the easternmost point of Asia and Cape Prince of Wales - the westernmost point of America) with the port of Murmansk (Russia).

Not to be left behind in the race for influence in this strategic region, in 2024, Washington announced a new strategy, affirming that the Arctic plays an essential role in protecting national interests and national security as well as maintaining US defence treaty commitments. The strategy emphasises that, in addition to maintaining the presence in the Arctic, promoting cooperation with allies and partners to conduct exercises to enhance readiness, the US needs to increase military strength, invest in sharing intelligence with allies, thereby gaining a better understanding of the operating environment as well as managing risks. The Pentagon also plans to cooperate with foreign partners, localities and industries to enhance deterrence and strengthen common security. Maintaining the presence in the Arctic through independent training and cooperation with allies to demonstrate interoperability has also been mentioned many times by Washington, with the immediate plan to operate more than 250 fighter jets with allies by 2030, increase exercises, and deploy permanent joint forces in Alaska.

According to international observers, immediately after announcing the new Arctic strategy, the US deployed and put into operation many projects related to the military and commercial fields, such as: launching 02 communication satellites for commercial and military purposes of Norway; organising the Northern Viking 2024 defence exercise in Iceland and the surrounding area with allies; establishing the Arctic Aviation Command at Fort Wainwright base in Alaska to improve the military's rapid response capabilities.

Washington is also planning the construction of a multi-layered missile interception system, with the goal of early detection, tracking and countering threats from aircraft and missiles. For this system to operate effectively, the US needs a sensor network including: intelligence, communications, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles, reconnaissance aircraft, such as MQ9, P-8, etc. to warn early and track potential threats. In particular, communication satellites are the most important factor for the system to operate feasibly with high-speed data transmission through the defence network, thereby establishing information dominance in the Arctic. If established, researchers say, the system will give the US great advantages in preventing opponents from deploying military forces in this region.

The increasing influence of Russia and China in the Arctic

Given the potential and advantages of the Arctic region in the future, many countries and international organisations have been interested in this region. There are currently 08 countries present in the Arctic, including: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, the US and Russia with different calculations.

According to researchers, for the US, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden are allies in the NATO bloc, not a cause for concern, although there is competition, the benefits still exist. This country's formidable opponents in the Arctic race are mainly Russia and China. In particular, after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula (in 2014) and conducted a special military operation in Ukraine (in 2022), the Arctic has become an "arena" of competition among superpowers, in which the US, Russia and China are the main "characters".

In the Arctic Strategy released in 2024, the US identified China and Russia as threats to US security, especially in the Arctic region. According to this Strategy, Russia may have a clear route to access US territory through the Arctic and can take advantage of its existing capabilities in the Arctic to threaten the US's ability to project power. According to international observers, although not an Arctic country, China is believed to be trying to take advantage of the changing dynamics in this region to increase access, take advantage of Arctic resources and increasingly demonstrate an important role in the region. According to a Pentagon report, China and Russia are increasing cooperation in the Arctic through national power tools, which is of great concern to US politicians.

According to researchers, in fact, over the past two decades, Russia has embarked on a large-scale construction of military infrastructure in the Arctic, such as reopening Soviet-era military bases, modernising air and sea defence systems, and strengthening radar networks. NATO military experts believe that it will take at least 10 years for the Alliance to build military infrastructure in the Arctic like the land of the White Birch.

Recently, China has also officially affirmed itself as a "near-Arctic country". Beijing's strategy for the Arctic region (adopted in 2018) identifies three main goals: maintaining a scientific presence; exploiting commercial opportunities; and building long-term capacity. To realise this goal, China has launched the "Northern Silk Road" programme. Essentially, this is an extension of the “Belt and Road” initiative to the Arctic, aiming to establish global logistics connections, integrated into Russia’s Arctic sea routes. Amid rising tensions with NATO, Moscow has cooperated with Beijing to launch the large-scale “Ocean 2024” military exercise, spanning the Pacific and Arctic. According to international observers, the increasingly close partnership between China and Russia, especially in the Arctic region, has attracted great interest from the US and its allies.

International public opinion believes that, with what has been and is happening, the Arctic is no longer a cold land outside the geopolitical and geo-economic calculations of countries in and outside the region, but has become the focus of new strategic competition among superpowers. However, international public opinion also hopes that this competition will not adversely affect world and regional security and peace.

LAM PHUONG